x1x3cx3dx3ex3fx40x41x42x43x44x45x46 x57x58x7fx59x9 x47x20x11x12x58x59x33x20x60x2ex45x2fx34x32x33x4x5cx15x20x30x31x1x52x29x52x37x3ax43x16 x52x28x18x70x47x40x3cx4dx20x5ax4ax25x5cx59x19x71x29 x5ax2ex51x5bx5cx5dx20 x5cx33x11x32x29 x3c 1.7 x8x2cx5cx33xex41x4fx34x5cx33x28x77x33x29 x66x5ex20 ? 1.1x11x12x58x59x33x3ex49x39x35x60x2ex2ex4ax29 ? 1.2x32x33x4x5cx15x1x52x39x35x25x27x57x4fx29 ? 1.3x36x70x20x68x58x29 ? 1.4x32(x73x5c)x33x61x33x21x37x7x66x2cx33x5cx4fx11x12x58x59x33x29 ? 1.5x41x5fx79x4x58x4dx7ax32x33x4x5cx15x1x52x20x23x24x34x5bx55x5xax35x47x52x11x12x58x59x33x30x31 x4dx2dx29 ? 1.6x3bx14x3ex3fx20x7fx18x2dx42x37x3ax43x16x52x28x34x70x47x40x3cx4dx65x17x4ax4dx7bx7cx55x71x43x16x29 ? 1.7x3bx14x3ex3fx20x7bx48x7cx77x75x7fx18x39x35x18x70x47x40x3cx4dx20x27x28x29 ? 1.8x25x27x60x2ex34x5x6bx20x2bx2cx29 ? x1fx4x20 x3bx14x2dx42x10x4x4bx64x44x13xexfx20x61x26x29 x3ax3ex25x23x20x54x60xax21x65x3dx3ex57x58x4fx6bx78x26x66x49x2cx64x2cxdx3dx3exfx78x79 x54x6ex7axfx77x48x25x2bx60xax23x25x4dx51x74x64x2ex10x54x69x1e(x45x31x69x1ex1x50x51x22x4f x4fx9)x78xfx2x3ax3ex25x18x54x69x1ex2x15x5dx44x2bx2ex4cx4dx2cx5fx3fx14x27x54x69x63x3dx3e x57x58x4fx78x25x18x54x3dx3ex57x58x4fx74x75x5dx3dx3ex42x43x54x57x58x4fx48x57xax67x3xax2x3 x50x51x3x22x4fx3x7cx6ax3x23x20x9x9x48x5bx36x51x2ex5fx18x38x54x3x4cx78x69x63x3dx3ex57x58 x4fx49x25x24x29x46x76x40x41x61x70x2bx7ex1ex54x1fx4cx78x3ax3ex54xax38x2x75x10x25x2bx1fx4c x51x77x77x7ex1ex54x61x1ex78x79x7ax24x56x54x25x51x39x53xcx44x27x3cx48x4ex32x33x5bx2x26x31 x23x25x19x57x49x65x2cx68x4fx1ex4fx6bx75x72x54x20x6ax2cxcx19x1fx78xfx2x49x33xbx20x6ax2cx48 x51x3x54x10x75x21x2ex1ex2x2ex1x71x3bx69x55x27x27x28x78x58x3ax3ex54x20x6axex75x42x45x39 x69x63x54x3ax3bx27x47x4fx48x6fx31x23x24x70x48x39x68x4fx6ex69x5cx54x3ax3bx27x47x4fx78 1.1 x49xdx4ex0x1xfx2cx3ax3ex19x57x1bx64x61x39x68x69x57x58x4fx19x68x69x3dx3ex4f x54x5fx3fx78x68x69x57x58x4fx57x69x63x57x58x4fx54x10x29x75x76x6fx2dx58x51x7bx17x4ex54x2ax5bx48 xfx68x69x3dx3ex4fx57x69x63x3dx3ex57x58x4fxex36x51x2ex4ex7dx3fx78x25x18x3ax3ex6cx79x75x70x48 x3dx3ex57x58x4fx54x8x5fx77x58x2x20x6x4fx74x7ax57x58x4fx78x49x10x54x62x63x44x65x70x2bx75 x20x19x54x58x21954x46Arrow (1921–)x4Debreu (1921–)x54x70x71x57x58x72x73x69 x63x78x26x7ex3ax3ex23x24x2bx8x56x5cx18x76x60x2a 12 ? Arrow–Debreux70x71x57x58x72x73x66x49x62x69 Arrow, K., and G. Debreu, 1954, Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy, Econometrica, 22: 265–290. ? Markowitz (1927–)x4fx1ex14x25x7x8x69x63 Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio selection, Journal of Finance, 7: 77–91. Markowitz, H., 1959, 1991 Second ed., Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investment, Basil Blackwell, Cambridge (x51x2cx3ax6fx2a x6x4ex75x1dx48 H.x48 1999x48x1ex37x14x25x7x8x4x1ex6fx42x43x54x72x6x64x69x7dx33 x14x48x2cx2d,x2ex2fx24x30x3ax48x44x31x7dx32x8x9x6x48x44x31x60x61xex33)x78 ? x3x66x6ex66x69xax54Modigliani(1918–)–Miller(1923–2000)x62x69(Modigliani– Miller Theorem, MMT) Modigliani, F., and M. Miller, 1958, The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment, American Economic Review, 48: 261–297. ? Sharpe(1934–), Lintner(1918–), Mossinx9x54x1ex6fx1ex37x62x4ax55x56(Cap- ital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM) Sharpe, W., 1964, Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk, Journal of Finance, 19: 425–442. Lintner, J., 1965, The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets, Review of Eco- nomics and Statistics, 47: 13–37. Mossin, J., 1966, Equilibrium in a capital asset market, Econometrica, 34: 768–783. ? Fama (1939–)x42x43x51x3ax1dx69x63 Fama, E. F., 1965, Random walks in stock market prices, Financial Analysts Journal,. September/October. Fama, E. F., 1970, Efficient Capital Markets: A review of theory and empirical work, Journal of Finance, 25: 383–417. ? Black (1938–1995)–Scholes (1941–)–Merton (1944–)x3exbx62x4ax69x63 Black, F., and M. Scholes, 1973, The pricing of options and corporate liabilities, Journal of Political Economy, 81: 637–654. Merton, R., 1973, The theory of rational option pricing, Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4: 141–183. Merton, R. C., 1992, Continuous-Time Finance, Rev. ed., Blackwell, Oxford. 13 ? Ross (1944–)x6dx3cx62x4ax69x63(Arbitrage Pricing Theory, APT) Ross, S. A., 1976, The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing, Journal of Economic Theory, 13: 341–360. Ross, S. A., 1978, A simple approach to the valuation of risky streams, Journal of Business, 51: 453–475. x5ex7ex48x3dx3ex57x58x4fx54x4ex34x67x7ex7fx41x40x78x44x29x25xbx57x58x4fx59x48x35x61x19x46 x54Blackx24x58Lintner, Mossin, Famax4Rossx19x48x5bx79x13x5bx68x61x7x59x5bx57 x58x5ax78x25x70x4ex34x2x51x63x10x40x41x54x1ex1fx78x25x23x20x64x2bx25x5dx25x70x1ex1fx4ex4f x25x46x54x36x37x47x29x78 1.2 x1ax4ex68x69x57x58x4fx2x24 1954 x46 Arrow–Debreu x70x71x57x58x72x73x66 x49x62x69x54x8x1ax1x38x39x54x78 1959 x46x48 Debreu x5dx62x54x4fx6ex63x64x24x65x4ax6x69 x63x6bx1x38x60x3bx26x8x9x48x39x7ex6fx7bx61x68x69x57x58x4fx54x70x2bx20x4dx38x78x25x70x20x4d x38x54xcx39x49x66x10x7ex7fx7ex3bx61x68x4fx6ex69x5cx69x55x48x5dx57x58x4fx54x31x63x33x1x78 x72x2ax70x72x2xdx6ex69xfx48x10x3ex2x11x61x62x41x7dx54x69x63x8x5fx77x57x4dx70x72x2xdx62 x69xfx48x10x3ex2xbx31x54x36x37x76x63x78x31x32x3ax6bx0xdx6ex69xfx2x3bx3cx54x48x33x34x3a xcx2cx6bx0xdx62x69xfx5ax2x3bx3cx54x48x35x43x3ax0x1x25x2bx4cx5bx16x6fx33x36x37x23x1x78 x1x53x25x64x63x2cx69x55x23x4fx48x6cx79x47x75x10x70x2bx37x1fx54x69x63x5fx60x2ax7dx68x4fx55 x56x78x25x2bx55x56x23x24xfx28x6dx48x5ax23x24xfx1x2x78x49x33xbx1x2x54x3dx3ex68x4fx55 x56x2cx3x15x44x58x21x51x1ax4ex68x4fx4fx4ex48x16x17x2x1x33x69x6ax48x68x69x12x6bx48x28x29 x33x14x48x43x1cx1dx33x14x9x4fx4ex78xfx2x2ex1x1bx4fx31x48x3ax3ex5ax23x7ex1fx28x6dx54x68 x4fx55x56x27x69x1ex17x2cx54x57x58x5ex55x48x51x5dx10x3ex3bx19x74x64x3dx3ex5fx60x2cx12x78x17 x7ax48x31x32x3bx75x10x3dx3ex57x58x4fx22x1xcxdx48x2fx5ex4cx4cx2x37x1fx5x3bx33xbx69x63 x41x32x48x3cx22x54x68x4fx20x37x2xcx2ex23x5fx54x78 x25x26x54x68x4fx6ex69x5cx69x55x10x66x57x58x4fxcxdxdx40x14x37x34x2ex3bx2x70x2bx3d x3ex0x14x1ax63x54x5fx60x78x25x18x1ax63x54x51x43x2x68x4fx10x57x58x4fx51x36x51x3bx78x10x7e x7dx3ex40x6fx44x19x51x63x4ax2ax70xbx14x3dx54x68x4fx20x37 (x3bx31x25x49x52x3ex21x33x62x54 x14x77x2ax2ex38x1x2x33x48x1cx1dx4ex68x48x1bx9x25x27x63x57x68x69x12x6bx9)x10x66x15x1fx1d x60x54x57x58x4fxcxdx3x15x5bx2xcx2ex23x5fx54x78x5fx60x49x66x57x58x4fx2x35x70x62x47x75 x48x58x7fx48x54x68x4fx6ex69x5cxex4cx48x24x58x26x7ex0x14x70x4cx5cxcx2cx3bx22x3x68x4fx59 x6dx6ex54x71x22x20x37x78x25x4ex4fx54xcxdx78x10x66x25x2bx5fx60x54x3bx4bx1bx1cx2x3ax3ex19 x57x49xdx4ex0x1xfx2cx0x1fx54Debreux54x3fx78x25x18x3ax3ex2ex40x13x45x1x70x41x2a xdx3f x1dx68x4fx67x4bx1dx48x53x6ex69x5cx19x57x2ex1bx70x6dx1ex0x1fx57x58x4fx59x10x20xcxdx54x5f x60x51x21x22x23x54x69x1ex48x51x53x24x25x25xbx5fx60x54x68x4fx26x27x3bx68x21x28x78x25x67x1 x24x20x69x24x6fx29x48x2ax7dx61x70x2bx23x2bx54x40x1ex78x10x53xcxdx31x39xcx2cx76x2dxbx7d x20x2ex54x59x70x2fx51x54x30x31x2cx32x50x8x27x78x67x4bx1dx33x34x9xax61x2dx2ex17x4ex57x58 x4fx59x54x35x43x47x75x48x7bx7ex48x62x3ex1x61x36x50x54x6ax7bx58x38x39x10x48xfx2x2ex1x51 x3ax54x5ex55x20x37x48x10x5ax2x69x63x54x38x39x78 xfx7ax10x31xex74x75x5dx42x68x4fx6ex69x5c 14 x32x5bx71x72x78x62x3ex0x3bx43x1cx5d (Keynes, J. M., 1883–1946) 1936 x46x21x70x54 x3fx2a xdxaxbx1fx2ex54x68x69x57x58x4fx73x2x70x64x4ex2x44x48x4x10x21x49x45x54x1bx7cx61xd x70x26x2ex46x3cx48x10x53x2ex31x49x47x48x48x2ex54x3x33x3bx54x4ex49x54x4ax4bx2cx4cx2ex61x10 x1ax71x4cx5bx54x1x2x1dx4x7bx25x3x4cx54x1ax4fx43x78xfx48x51x6cx5dx8x2a xdx21x51x25xbx16 x6fx2ex2x5dx68x4fx5x3bx66x1ax71x54x57x58x5fx60x48x7bx7ax48x2x5dx71x3bx46x3cx3x1x2x54 x68x4fx5x3bx66x7ex7fx55x44x2cx54x3x4dx55x54x57x58x4fx54x6bx4ex54x69x55x56x78 xf (x4f[1]x48 149–151x78 ) 1.3 x10x66x25x70x5fx60x54x71x3bx48xfx75x16x5fx1ax48x46x57x1ax63x54x7dx3exdx15xf xfx4fx32x26x17x36x50x1bx4ax31x4dx21x1cx27x54(x3bx4bx54x6fx50x4bx54)x13x14x78x6fx51x7ax2e x31x6ax6fx2x22x3x68x4fx20x2ex31x48x40x41x46xbx4ex1x3dx3ex1dx74x48x36x7axfx64x2bx4ex4f xdx5dx71x3bx46x3cx3x1x2x54x68x4fx5x3bx66x7ex7fx55x44x2cx54x3x4dx55x54x57x58x4fx54x6bx4e x54x69x55x56xfx33x26x54xcxdx78x25x23x24x53x3ax4ex23x2excx59x17x5bx75x3x1fx2ax5cx33x7fx54 x6ax42x4fx74x48x12x20x47x13x54x3dx3ex2ax3x48x24x58x21x7dx21x52x79x53x54x4ex54x4cx5bx48x58 x73x47x3x49x6bx4ex54xdx69x55x56xfx2cx56x36x55x67x9x56x54x68x4fx60x78xfx2x31x32x3ax3ex75 x5dx1bx1cx3dx3ex1ax71x20x8x54x5fx60x2ex1x57x15x48x6fx31x5ex5fx75x68x58x25x2bxdx69x55x56xf x51x43x7ex7fx2x7ex59x4dx71x48x33x34x67xcx2cx5dx8xdx69x55x56xfx54x71x49x6ex7ax78x25x70x5f x60x74x7ax2ex25x28x6dx1ex3bxdDebreux9x25x26x54xcxdx31x68x61x7x59x5bx57x58x4fx5axfx48 x6fx31xdx49x6bx56x70x59x57x58x4fx2x39x44x54x2dx2ex63x64x5bx2x33x26x54xfx27x1bx1cx78 x3x66x25x26x54x5fx60x54x7fx4bx63x29x36x7ax2ex2x25x49x51x7ax54x15x2x78x2bx71x44x48 x25x72x5fx60x3cx27x5ax5ax7fx75x1ax63x56x12x48x2ex23x25x49x5fx3ex10x53x4ex59x51x63x4ax78x51 x62x5bx54x26x31x23x46x3cx40x41x46x24xbx48x41x42x4ex4fx8x9x6x5cx3ax8x9x54x78x6fxe[1] x4 [2]x48x24x58x5dx46x27x57x58x4ex4fx8x9x6x8x9x54 [3] x4 [4]x78x2ex23x26x31x6fx7dx10 x66x4fx7ax57x58x4fx1dx37x34x71x3bx24x58x10xex2cx54x70xbx76x77x2x35x5dx10x48x25x78x6fxe x2cx21x4ex4fx54x65x63x5bx2x5fx7dx22x5ex54x78x49x25x18x48x3ax3ex73x55x28x6dx1ex60x68x2ex31 x54x40x6fx76x77x78 x6cx79x48x3ax3ex5dx10 Debreu x54x70x55x78x4x48x68x4fx6ex69x5cx69x55x2x70x64xdx51 x3ax54x5ex55x20x37x48x10x5ax2x69x63x54x38x39xfx78x25x18x2ex44x58x10x20x6x4fx74x7ax57x58x4f x6fx50x2x35x5dx10x54x5fx60x78x17x71x51xbx10x68x69x57x58x4fx54x6x7x51x43x45x10x68x4fx6e x69x5cx69x55x48x58x21x2ex54x2x45x10x20x6x4fx74x7ax57x58x4fx6fx50x78x10x7ex48x3ax3ex7x8 x5dx10x3ex48x33x6fx27x78x1x37x34x68x4fx6ex69x5cx69x55x2xdx51x3ax54x5ex55x20x37xfx48 xdx69 x63x54x38x39xfx7ex25x18x7fx44x58x3ax3ex49x25x18x2ex25x5ex22x63x29x54x37x34x2x4ex4fx69x63x54 x5fx60x78x3ax3ex10x25x70x5fx60x5fx70xbx60x61x54x0x4ax78x3ax3ex0x1x48x22x23x7dx3ex10x8 x77x5b(Popper, K. R. 1902–1994)x54x6x72x69x1dx74x7ax51x74x64x74x26x54x3cx55x48xf x2x62x10x37x34x2x4ex4fx69x63x54x63x29x58x2x23x24x2ex1x70x64xdx69x63x54x38x39xfx27x38x11 x54x78x8x77x5bx0x1x48x4ex4fx69x63x2x70x64xdx7fxcx62x29xfx48x7bx58x2x70x64xdx44x49x6f x4ex49x54x4cx12xfx78 xdx4cx12xcx2cx60x29x68xax63x7bx7cx4x68x3cx48x53x68x3ax3ex16x66x64x0 x8x59x70x2bx20x61x62x2x70x64x4cx12x54x27x17x78xfx7bx7ex48 xdx70x2bx67x60x54x4cx12x54x40x26 x11x2ex1xax54x27x38x39xfx78 xdx25x64x40x26xfx67x2x21x22xdx6ex69x5cx4cx12xfx78 xdx6ex69x6f 15 x31x23x24x11x3cx2ex2(i)x65x62x48x6fx31x23x24x11x3cx2ex2(ii)x57x52x54x6fx4ex4fx54x61x70x78 xfxdx49x70x2bx69x63x4cx12x10x48x3ax3ex23x24x48x3fx66x66x74x64x77x41x1dx67x36x54x62x29x78x77 x41x1dx15x71x54x62x29x2x6ex69x57x77x71x67x36x54x57x52x62x29x7bx10x66x39x10x3ex68x69x8x27 x54x77x6fx67x36x54x62x29x27x70x48x5x2x37x51x61x70x54x1dx60xf(x46x3c[3])x78x58x4ex4fx57x54 x4ex4fx3x43x4ex4fx54x34x5bx49x66x10x54xdx23x7dx52x1dxfx4xdx23x2cx54x1dxfx48x17x2cx15x45 x75x54x2xdx7ex1fx25x39x69x63x76x1fx8x54x31x63x54x57x52x7x3bx27x7dx52x69x63xfx24x58xdx57 x52x54x4ex4fx4cx12xcx2cx51x23x25x11x57x52x7ax6axfx78x8x77x5bx49x25x18x25x50x54x2x2ax4ex4f xcxdx54x36x37x2x68x69x36x37x48x2ex2x30x55x76x69x57x58x70x2bx4ex4fx69x63xcx2cx25x57x68 x14x71x4x54x7dx52x48x51x6cx49x7dx52x2cx2ex73x5fx3fx78x49x25x70x79x7ax56x48x68x69x57x58x4f x3bx2x57x58x4fx24x4ex4fx5cx5fx3fx54x70x2bx38x39x78x3ax3ex57x7fx6bx0x54x5ex70x2x6x65x5e (Marx, K., 1818–1883)x54x53x11x2a xdx70x64x4ex4fx73x51x41x20x1ex5x3bx68x4fx18x48x78 x12x54x19x61x3bx3bx7ex6ex54x1ex57x78 xfx5ax23x53x7dx3ex49x25x70x79x7ax56x68x19x4ex70x57x54 x69x1ex78 x17x7ax48x25x51x2ex79x41x42x3ax3ex7fx6cx38x11x8x77x5bx5x4fx48x58x4cx4cx2x49xdx69x63 x54x38x39xfx25x77x44x38x11x6dx77x5bx21x20x8x54x75x39x78x10x7ex48x3ax3ex49x25x18x2ex68x2ex20 x19M. 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x32x7ax4fx3ex23x24x2x19x3exbx54x15x1fx18x23x48xexcx1x6bx26x3exbx78x3exbx49x10x11x7a x4fx18x54x4ax4bxfx7bx7cx48x4x2ax31x32x6ax73x54x42x4ax71x66x3exbx33x62x54x7ax4fx4ax4bx48x33 x34x3exbx54x4ax4bx67x2x42x4ax57x7ax4fx4ax4bx75x7dx57x31x32x6ax73x54x42x4ax6fx66x3exbx33 x62x54x7ax4fx4ax4bx48x33x34x3exbx2x33x3bx54x48x17x4ax4bx1x7dx78x2ex1fx48x31x32x6ax73x49x50 x27x19x3ex18x54x4ax4bx39x17xbx27x3cx18x2x2ex3cx62x54x18x48x3exbx19x3ex7ax4fx18x54x4ax4b x5ax2x2ex3cx62x54x78x1ax49x75x5fx3exbx49x17x11x7ax4fxbx7x8x32x26x62x4ax7ex1x7ex48x3a x3ex27x47x48x70x2bx15x28x6dx54x6ax42x68x4fx55x56x78x25x2bx55x56x2cx70x63x73x51xdx17xbxfx57 xdx50x27xfx78x2bx18x23x48x51x6cxdx50x27xfx18x23x67x2x3exbx54x7ax4fx18x23x78 xdx17xbxfx54 x6ax4a S0 x2x19x1bx54x48x58xdx50x27xfx54x6ax4ax23x25x51x78x64x74x75x48x6fx2x2ax41 aS0, x6fx2x2ax41bS0,x17x2ca 6= b,x35xex50x27x54x6ax4ax67x3cx62x61x78x1x28x6dx14x4fx48x3a x3ex58x61x62xdx17xbxfx57xdx50x27xfx54x50x51x4ax6x2x70x26x54x48x47x33x7ex50x7fx0x48x5a x33x22x4fx3cx6ax78 x1ax49x61x62x3exbx54x7ax4fx4ax4bx1K. x33x34x3exbx49xdx50x27xfx23x25x51x54x78x64 x4ax4bx1Ca = max(aS0 ?K;0)x4Cb = max(bS0 ?K;0),x17x2cmaxx60x27x46 x49x10x78x2bx68x2cx54x4ex31x78x16x5ex25x26x54x70xbx61x62x48x3ax3ex27x39x3exbx54xdx17xbxf x4ax4b (x56x4bx54x65x63x71x72x44x57 Ca x4 Cb x2x37x34x33x3x48x4x10x24x3bx66x15x1fx72 xdx54x1ax36x2cx68x54x62x4a)x78 x49x25x18x48x3ax3ex6cx79x75x1fx79x19x48 xdx3exbx23x25x62x4axfx25x3dx2bx6fx50x67x19x57 x1fx1ax61x15x6fx75x39x54x33x6dx3cx61xdx78x35xex48x31x32x10x66x50x27x51x2ex3cx62x4ax6x54 x3exbx27x70x48x17x17xbx4ax6x5ax2ex3cx62x48x33x34x10x49x42x43x44x67x2ex23x25x66x16x57x6fx31 x70x48x49x42x43x44x10x70x64x3exbx23x25x51x2ex64x4ax4bx48x39x58x67x51x7dx23x24x4ex4fxdx6fx70 x71x3cxfx54x6dx3cx2fx30(x25x18x3ax3ex2ex47x48x70x3cx7dx4ax3x66x16x35x3bx75x72x54x5fx60)x78 x67x9x3fx70x48x3ax3ex20x8x3exbx62x4ax5fx60x48x19x57x19x0x61xdx59x70x64(x50x27x4ax6x2e 22 x3cx62x54)x3exbx5bx51x17(x17xbx3cx62x54)x4ax4bxfx25x70x6ex69x78x17x6dx48x3ax3ex49x56x4b x54x65x63x2cx48x58x5dxdx1cx1dx62x4ax55xexfx2ex1x6ex69x78x21x22x1cx1dx62x4ax55xex48x2x5d x40x41x49 A x2cx68x57x40x41x49 B x2cx68x49x70x14x54x2cx68x14x25x54x5x4ax6x48x7x8x9 x66Ax2cx68x4ax4bx54x10x26x1x68x57Bx2cx68x4ax4bx54x10x26x1x68x75x4x78x67x9x3fx70x48 x5ax67x2x70x2bx2cx68x14x25x54x4ax6x7x8x9x66x10x54x14x41x2cx68x54x4ax6x75x4x78x25x38 xdx1cx1dx62x4ax55xexfx31x32x2ex41x7dx5ax79x41x42x66x49x11x64x6dx3cx29x4dx48x4x3ax3ex51x23 x25x3cx3bxdx25x14x27xfx70x3cx70x2bx2cx68x14x25x57xdx33x6fx27xfx70x3cx70x2bx2cx68x14x25x54 x7dx4ax48x27x4dx48x70x2bx3ax68x6dx3cx54x66x16xex0x78x25x18x58x2x6ex42x70x2bx61x62x2ax10 x15x1fx70x64x2cx68x48x7dx3ex5bx23x36x26x1ex70x3cx78x4x53x3ax2ex50x51x25x64x2cx68x48x5ax23 x24x5dx10x3cx8x78x5ax67x2x70x48x3bx2dx7dx3ex10x2cx68x4ex4fxdx3cx72xfx78 x49x25x26x54x40x6fxdx6ex69xfx54x61x62x56x48x3exbx62x4ax5fx60x67x23x7ex1fx3x64x60x4b x44x2ex10x54x76x77x27x68x19x1ex44x78x17x2cx74x75x54x60x64x2x2a 1. x26x66x3cx8x6ax73x57x70x1x3exbx2x78x64x69x6ax69x24x7bx7ax54x4fx1ex4fx1x48x24 x17x14x25x25x78x64x4fx1ex4fx1x48x67x23x54x19x7ex7fx7cx6x54x2ex3bx78x25x26x48xd C0 x1 xdx17xbxfx54x3exbx4ax4bx48x4fx1ex31x3cx8x70x49x6ax73x48x70x4exx49x3exbx48x58x25x78x64 x4fx1ex4fx1x54x14x25x53x69x6ax7ex7fx10x6x3x4ax6x7ex1ex3cx7cx48x4x2ex23x8x1axbx70x64 x74x75x48x10x54x4ax6x7cx52x2ex2ax78x66x2x26xdx1cx1dx62x4ax55xexfx48x25x67x68x19x78x2bx69 x6ax2a ?S0 +xC0 = ?aS0 +xCa; ?S0 +xC0 = ?bS0 +xCb: x26x7ex23x1ex68x3exbx54xdx17xbxfx4ax4bx1x2a C0 = Ca ?Cb +aCb ?bCaa?b : 2. x3exbx54xdx50x27xfx4ax6x79x7ax2x2ex3cx62x54x48xfx2x10x7ex7fx49x45x66x6ax73x54 x2ex3cx62x54x4ax4bx48x24x5ex3exbx6fx50x23x24x7ex1fx6ax73x66x16x4x22x4fx66x3(x3ax3ex61x62 x3cx27x1x7dx48x51x3cx6ax74x40x72xdx47x48) x54x14x25x27xdx1x10xfx78x25x67x2x70x48x70x49 x3exbx7bx17x66 y x38x22x4fx66x3x57 z x49x6ax73x54x14x25x78x66x2x26x25x64x14x25x54xdx50 x27xfx4ax6x57x3exbx4ax6x70x2ax48x13x26xdx1cx1dx62x4ax55xexfx67x68x19x78x2bx69x6ax2a y +zaS0 = Ca; y +zbS0 = Cb: x26x7ex23x1ex68 z = Ca ?CbS 0(a?b) ; y = aCb ?bCaa?b ; C0 = y +zS0 = Ca ?Cb +aCb ?bCaa?b : 3. x3ax3ex73x61x62xdx50x27xfx23x25x51x78x64x74x75x48xfx51x50x33x62x25x78x64x74x75x54 x23x25x1d(x25x27)x74x51x2ex4ex78x59x2bx4fx1ex31x5bx23x16x5ex36x57x21x6dx6ex54x7cx6ax10x25 x78x64x23x25x2ex8x36x57x54x4x6b (x4x21x22x74x76x25x27)x78xfx2x49x4ex70x57x54x33x6dx3c 23 x61xdx56x48x67x75x1fx68ax57bx2cxcx7ax51x70x2bx4ex661,x4dx70x2bx16x661;x4x6ax42x54 x78x64x74x75x73x25x2x70x5x70x6x78x35xex49x5bx44x5x18x48x4fx1ex31x23x7ex1fxdx17xbxfx70 x4ex48 xdx50x27xfx3cx8x48x4x25x68x3cx57x49x5bx56x6x18x48x4fx1ex31x23x7ex3bx7bx7ax54xex0x48 x10x26x4x25x68x3cx78x17x7ax48x3ax3ex25x18x10x26x58x75x61x62x4fx1ex31x5x51x70x62x54x1ex3d x23x3fx6ex48x51x6cx6ax42x3bx2dxdx3cx72xfx48x4x3bx2dx3cx8x3ax51x2ex50x51x54x6ax73x48x73x75 x3ax25x49xdx50x27xfx66x7x18x48x51x1ex3dx19x42x43x12x5dx6ax73x70x1bx78x25x18x54x4ex70x57x54 x33x6dx3cx61xdx2x5dx2ax17x61x62xdx17xbxfx57xdx50x27xfx54x50x51x4ax6x70x26x18x48x2ex66 x49x50x27x4ax6x5x71x66x17xbx4ax6x54x2cx68x14x25x78 x49x25x64x61x62x56x48x67x66x49x51x70x64x10x50x27x54x23x25x1dx4x6bx48x53x68xdx50x27xf x54x6ax4ax54x36x72x6x68x28x67x9x66xdx17xbxfx54x6ax4ax78x25x2x7bx1ax4bx2cxcx7ax51 x70x2bx4ex661,x4dx70x2bx16x661,x39x58x66x490x571x75x76x54x68q (x25x27)x53x68 aq +(1?q)b = 1; x4 q = 1?ba?b: x58xdx17xbxfx54x3exbx4ax4bx7x8x67x2x49x25x64x23x25x1dx4x6bx56x54xdx50x27xfx54x3exb x4ax4bx54x36x72x6x48x4 C0 = qCa +(1?q)Cb = Ca ?Cb +aCb ?bCaa?b : Black–Scholes x55x56x17x7ax36x51x33x34x28x6dx48x17x2cx15x74x75x54x70x77x49x66x62 x3ex61xdx18x76x54x2ax5cx2x7fx0x54x48x6ax4ax54x2ax5cx5ax2x7fx0x54x78x25x10x66x3bx2dx4f x1ex31x59x17x5bx23x56x15x79x2ex6dx66x16x54x6bx56x6ax42x27x70x48x2x70x2bxfx28x54x23x37x78 x25x18x6ax4ax2ax5cx11x61x62x1x49x68x4fx44x3bx21x22x3x1fBrownx5x30x27x60x27x57x10x18x48 x58x61x62x51x70x64x17x4ax6x2ex5dx68x54x3dx54x33x69x6ax2cx68 (x69x68x6fx22x4fx66x3)x48x27 x2ex1x6ax4ax54x46x16x5x78 Black–Scholes x54x6ax7cx63x64x2cx3bx54x2x25x18x54x65x70x64 x76x77x48x4x6ax73x66x16x57x3exbx66x16x54x24x17x14x25x23x10x6x69x6ax48x39x58x41x1x70x64 x33x69x6ax2cx68x78x26x7ex1fx68x70x2bx7x1x33x69x6ax48x17x1ex67x2 Black–Scholes x3exb x6ex26x78x13x27x54xcxdx48x16x17x2 Merton x9x54xcxdx48x7fx40x41x61x4dx78x64x76x77x48 x10x3ex49x10 Black–Scholes x69x63x54x22x5cx4x76x77x2cx48x14x61x3x1dx2ex3bx78x65x8x64 x76x77x7ax6ex42x70x64xdx7ex7fx42x43xfx54x25x22x78x49x7ex7fx42x43x2cx48x59x70x64x4ax6x47x44 x66x6ax4ax2ax5cx54x1ax36x2cx68(x69x63x44x7fxcxdx50x62xbx21 (contingent claim)xf)x5b x23x24x7ex1fx11x64x6ax42x66x16xex0x27xdx1x10xfx48x39x58x10x3ex54x4ax4bx5ax67x26x6ax4ax4 x66x16xex0x16x5ex1cx1dx62x4ax55xex27x44x62x78x7ex7fx42x43x54x25x22x49x69x63x44x24x1x45 x75x78x31x32x79x19x74x75x43x7fx1ex1fx48x58x6ax73x75x72x54x2cx68x64x72x7fx2ex2xax63x2ex48x33 x34x7bx17x2ex54x1ax36x2cx68x2x2ex23x25xdx1x10xfx54x48x39x58x10x3ex67x2ex23x25x51x1dx70x54 x62x4ax78x1ax71x54x42x43x5x2x2ex7ex7fx54x48x7bx58x2dx2ex6fx60x44x2ex25x62x4ax54x1ax36x2c x68x66x16xcx7ax45x6ex6fx60x54x2ex23x8x16x54x69x6ax78x65x60x64x76x77x60x54x1x67x4bx54x68 x4fx40x26x13x48xcx1xdx1ex37x62x4ax40x6fx62x69xfx78x3bx2ex7ex46x3cx54x12x7fx3bx11x48x10x23 x24x70x41x2a (x7ex1ex54)x33x6dx3cx61xdx9x4ax66x66x49x10x50x27x54x2ex3cx62x1dx54x70x64x4 24 x6b(x68x4fx44xcx1xdx9x4ax9x51x3bxf)x48x53x68x15x1fx18x23x54x6ax4ax5bx9x66x50x27x6ax4a x54x36x72x6(x68x4fx44xcx1x6ax4ax40x41xdx9x1fx6axfx57x31x32x3cx27x2ex1x7dx48x25x18x58 x75x47x48x6ax4ax54x13x1ax6)x78x25x49x11x64x79x7ax44x23x24x70x48x17x42x43x1dx33x5fx3fx19x15 x1fx7dx5bx2ex25xax4ex17x41x18x48x50x27x54x2ex3cx62x1dx51x17x10x49x54x33x3x48x7dx3ex2ex7 xbxcx70x64xdx4bx21x69x12xex53xfx51x48x58x7x43x39x12x6dx6ex25x64x33x3x78x3bx2x49x25 x70x77x44x48 Black–Scholes x69x63x74x27x61x10x10x6ax42x71x72x24x5ex21x70x71x54x2ex3cx62 x70x71x56x54x44xex5fx60xcxdx44x54x45x75x1dx78 x2ex1fx48x3bx31x3ax3ex49x44x4bx19x57x1fx79x19x54x48x25x18x54xbx78x64x76x77x73x75x39 xdx1cx1dx62x4ax55xexfx48x58x65x60x64x76x77x47x75x7ex1ex54x33x6dx3cx61xdx48x35xepx23x25 x2ex80 x571 x75x76x48x58x2ex13x51x25x27x79x7ax78x22x23x3ax3ex68x19x54x15x13x31x32x49x40 x26x44x5bx2x70x26x54x48xfx49x76x1fx2cx48x65x60x64x76x77x25x7cx2cx17x3exbx54x50x27x4ax6 x43x50x18x48x17x17xbx4ax6x5ax70x62x43x50x78x10x17x71x5ax67x2x7ex1ex54x33x6dx3cx61xdx54 x75x39x78x58x49xbx78x64x76x77x56x48x51x2ex25x7cx2cx25x70x77x78x5ax67x2x70x48 xdx1cx1dx62x4a x55xexfx51x2ex25x7cx2cx50x27x4ax6x43x50x54x3exbx48x17x17xbx4ax6x5ax43x50x78x2bx71x44x48 x3ax3exfx75x16x4dx48x25x64x7ax45x2ax45x31x48x47bx4a?bxax63x16x48 Ca = 0, Cb > 0, x67x25x53C0x47x15x79x54x50x6x78x22x23x3dx3ex42x43x54x71x72x53x68x7ex7fx2ex4dx8x1ax25x26 x54x74x75x48xfx2x25x26x54x45x14x70x68x48 xdx1cx1dx62x4ax55xexfx57xdx66x49x6dx3cxfx2x2e x5dx23x54x48x10x5ax23x25x24x3bx66x3dx3ex42x43x2cx54x2dx2exdx7ax7fx74x40xfx78 x39x25x70x45x14x2cx3ax3ex23x24x3cx8x1ax4ex3dx3ex57x58x4fx54x76x69x69x26x78x70x71x27 x70x48x17x2cx3bx19x54x68x4fx5bx77x25x18x21x70x54x75x1x2x68x2ex78xfx2x49x40x6fx5ex55x44 x4ex2ax67x2x31x7ex78x10x66x68x4fx40x41x77x28x54x26x31x48x23x24x3ax42x25x26x54x5ex7ex2ex68 xfx7fx78x58x10x66x68x4fx44x51x70x62xexfx54x26x31x27x70x48x7ex1fx25x26x54x28x6dx55x56x5a x25x6dx6ex69x63x54x10x29x48x51x6cx26x7ex47x23x3cx19x69x63x54x10x43x48x5ax23x3cx19x69x63x54 x1bx2ax1dx78x17x7ax48x28x6dx54x55x56x36x51x71x3bx4ax6x78x3ax3ex2ex25x5dx2bx25x70x51x2cx20 x8x54x55x56x67x25x3bx27x4ex4fx3exbx62x4ax54x71x72x6bx12x78 1.7 x56x4bx3ax3ex13x10x33x6dx3cx61xdx4x1ex37x62x4ax40x6fx62x69x39x4dx19x70x2bx3a x3bx27x4ex4fx65x63x78x3ax3ex19x57x3cx19x48x7ex1fx1cx1dx62x4ax55xex6fx33x6dx3cx61xdx48x23 x24x3bx40x6fx2cx68x27x1x1ax36x2cx68x62x4ax78x25x26x54x62x4ax69x55x4bx57x3dx3ex1x7dx3ex21 x2ex69x1ex78x6ax7bx49x66x11x12x54x62x4ax69x63x5bx2x16x5ex57x58x2fx30x31x54x47x39x4x48x49x48 x49x70x71x57x58x72x73xex4cx2cx40x41x54x78x58x49x44x4bx54x62x4ax69x55x2cx48x73x2ex1fx2x7e x1fx6ax73x54x4ax4bx4x50x51x54x52x10x7cx6x27x1x3exbxdx7bx10x62x4axfx78x10x51x2ex3x21x6a x73x4ax4bx6fx50x32x26x40x41x25x70x5fx60x78x25x18x3ax3ex7ex7fx3cx2ex19x42x43x2cx54x57x58x2f x30x31x78x25x70x5dx23x49x13x0x54xcxdx2cx11x11x5ax12x7bx7cx61x78x49x25x70x16x51x2cx48x3a x3ex13x27x4dx48x70x2bx29x33x28x6dx54x4fx1ex64x34x35x55x56x48x24x70x68x39x25x2bx3ax3bx27x3c x1ex37x62x4ax40x6fx62x69x48x10x5ax2x25x69x54x78 x3ax3ex54x8x5fx77x1cx7ax57xbx4bx70x26x2ax61xdx73x51xdx17xbxfx57xdx50x27xfx78x2b x18x23x78 xdx17xbxfx54x6ax4aS0x2x19x1bx54x48x58xdx50x27xfx54x6ax4ax23x25x51x78x64x74x75x48 25 x6fx2x2ax41 aS0, x6fx2x2ax41 bS0, x17x2c a 6= b. xdx17xbxfx57xdx50x27xfx54x50x51x4a x6x2x70x26x54x48x47x33x7ex50x7fx0x48x5ax33x22x4fx3cx6ax78x61xdx51x70x53x4fx1ex64x34x35 x31 A. x62x21x38x39x54xax38x2x62x54x34x35x3ax3bx15x4ex78x1x7ex47x75x62x7ax62x54x3ax3b x65x68x78x6cx79x2x51x25x26x70x2bx71x71x54x3ax3bx65x68u(c),x17x2ccx2x62x21x34x35x54x4a x6x78x70x2bx25x69x54x61x62x1 u x2 c x54x49x54x65x68x48x4x10 A x27x70x48 xdx5bx13x68x4b x2ex4bx28xfx78xfx2x3ax3exaxbx51xdx17xbxfx4xdx50x27xfx78x2bx18x23x48x10Ax27x70x48x58 x47x75x7ex1fx17xbx54x3cx62x34x35x4x53x27x54x2ex3cx62x34x35x48x27x4dx41x70x2bx18x25x54x3a x3bx65x68x78 x49x3ax3exbx4bx54x65x63x2cx48x3ax3ex7cx52x36x51x20x58xdx50x27xfx23x25x5fx36x54x78x64 x70x71x54x25x27x78x2bx71x44x48x3ax3ex49x15x13x5ax3cx19x48x1ax36x2cx68x54x62x4ax57x6ax73x54x78 x64x70x71x54x5fx36x54x25x27x36x51x3x4cx78xfx2x49x25x18x48x17Ax75x10x36x57x54x4fx1ex34 x35x4fx1x4ex4fx44xex18x48x67x2ex68x2ex16x5ex62x21x6dx6ex54x7cx6ax48x10xdx50x27xfx51x70x2b x4x6bx78x66x2x62x4x6bx6ax73x4ax6x1aS0 (x24x13x3ax3excx25x70x70x71x1x70x71a)x54x25 x27x1p,x58x1bS0 (x24x13x3ax3excx25x70x70x71x1x70x71b)x54x25x27x67x21?p. x25x2b (p;1?p)x23x25x2x3cx71x75x5fx36x54xdx68x76x25x27xfx48x5ax23x25x2Ax16x5ex36x57x6dx6e x54x7cx6ax27x72x73x54xdx74x76x25x27xfx78x16x5ex21x22 von Neumann–Morgenstein x54 x3ex2bx3ax3bx65x68x69x63(x4fx65x14x51)x48 Ax54x50x27x2ex3cx62x34x35x54x3ax3bx67x9x66x17x2e x3cx62x3ax3bx54x68x4fx3ex2bx78x5ax67x2x70x48x31x32Ax49x70x71ax54x34x35x4ax6x1ca,x49 x70x71bx54x34x35x4ax6x1cb,x33x34x17x50x27x34x35x54x3ax3bx67x2pu(ca)+(1?p)u(cb), x25x18x3ax3ex61x62x50x27x54x34x35x3ax3bx65x68x57x17xbx34x35x3ax3bx65x68x2x70x26x54x78x31 x32x3ax3ex13x61x62x48 Ax54x5x34x35x3ax3bx65x68x67x2x62x54x17xbx34x35x3ax3bx57x50x27x34 x35x3ax3bx75x4x48x33x34x62x54x5x3ax3bx65x68x67x2 U(c0;ca;cb) = u(c0)+pu(ca)+(1?p)u(cb); x17x2cc0 x2x17xbx34x35x4ax6x48 ca x4cb x33x3fx2x78x64x50x27x34x35x4ax6x78x25x18x71x72 x44x58x61x62 A x10x17xbx4x50x27x54x45x15x6ax3bx70x26x78x31x32x62x45x17xbx48x16x50x27x48 x49x25x2bx3ax3bx65x68x54x13x78x66xbx16x70x2b0x571x75x76x54xdx13x1ax7bx14xfx78xfx25x51 x2ex13x14x56x4bx54x65x63x78 x1ax49x3ax3ex75x65x63x54x5fx60x2x2a A x32x26x7ex1fx62x10x22x4fx4x6ax42x54x4fx1ex48 x27x53x62x54x5x34x35x3ax3bx15x4ex78x25x18x58x47x61x62 A x49x17xbx51x1ex3d e0, x49x50x27 x51x1ex3dea x4eb. x66x2x31x32Ax49x17xbx24x22x4fx66x3xd (x31x32xd < 0x79x41x42 x1cx3),x49x6ax42x70x1x6ax73xs (x31x32xs < 0x79x41x42xdx3cx72xf)x48x49x50x27x39x22x4f x47x3x48x24x6ax42x3cx8x6ax73x48x33x34x3ax3ex67x51 c0 = e0 ?xd ?S0xs; ca = ea +xd +aS0xs; cb = eb +xd +bS0xs: x25x18x3ax3ex1cx7ax61xdx22x4fx2x33x3cx6ax54x78x25x26x48x10Ax27x70x54x15x6dx4fx1ex64x34 26 x35x44xex5fx60x67x28 >>< >>: max U(c0;ca;cb) = u(c0)+pu(ca)+(1?p)u(cb) s:t: c0 = e0 ?xd ?S0xs > 0 ca = ea +xd +aS0xs > 0 cb = eb +xd +bS0xs > 0 x25x70x2bx5fx60x2x2ex2x70x62x51x1ex7ex2ex70x62x78x2bx71x44x48x73x75x61xd u x2x49 x54x65x68x48x17 a x4 b x2ex49 1 x78x17x48x33x34x25x2bx5fx60x70x62x36x51x1ex78x25x2x7bx1 x25x18x67x4dx5fx36x3ax3ex44x4bx5fx19x54x6dx3cx29x4dx78 Ax73x47x75x7ex1fx17xbx24x22x4fxc x3x48x6fx4ax70x1x6ax73x48x50x27x71x4ax3cx8x6ax73(x6fx31x17xbx71x4ax3cx72x6ax73x48x5dx5b x66x1x22x4fx48x50x27x6fx4ax70x1x6ax73x27x66x7)x67x25x54x0x62x54x5x3ax3bx48x51x6cx25x26 x56x2x33x1bx71x54x78x3bx70x9x68x4fx54x3fx27x70x48x3ax3ex23x24x49x2ax6cx54x65x18x5ax1ax10 x53ux55x24x66x33x2ax4ex78x4dx70x69x4bx48x31x32x25x70x5fx60x51x1e ˉxd, ˉxsx48x33x34x2ex1x44 x29x31x63x54x19x35x4x60x48 (x7ex1ex54) x33x6dx3cx61xdx70x62x41x7dx78x25x67x2x70x48x31x32 x3ax3ex47x75x3bx70x71x72x73xex4cx27x65x63x3dx3ex5fx60x48x33x6dx3cx61xdx54x41x7dx17x71x5a x2x79x44x38x3dx78x25x67x4ex70x57x1ax62x61x33x6dx3cx61xdx49x69x63x44x54x45x75x1dx78x2exf x31x7ex48x31x32x49x68x4fx44x61x62x70x62x54x65x68x7ex1bx1dx38x3dx48x33x34x3ax3ex58x23x39x1e x54x70x7bxcx75x38x3dx68x19 @U(e0 ?xd ?S0xs;ea +xd +aS0xs;eb +xd +bS0xs) @xd flfl flfl xd=ˉxd;xs=ˉxs = 0; @U(e0 ?xd ?S0xs;ea +xd +aS0xs;eb +xd +bS0xs) @xs flfl flfl xd=ˉxd;xs=ˉxs = 0: x4 u0(ˉc0) = pu0(ˉca)+(1?p)u0(ˉcb) S0u0(ˉc0) = aS0pu0(ˉca)+bS0(1?p)u0(ˉcb) x17x2c3 ˉc0 = e0 ? ˉxd ?S0ˉxs > 0 ˉca = ea + ˉxd +aS0ˉxs > 0 ˉcb = eb + ˉxd +bS0ˉxs > 0 x26x7ex23x24x68x19x48 1 = pu 0(ˉca) u0(ˉc0) +(1?p) u0(ˉcb) u0(ˉc0) 1 = apu 0(ˉca) u0(ˉc0) +b(1?p) u0(ˉcb) u0(ˉc0) 3x5dx17xex2dx5x3x5cx20>x60x0x12x37 >. xbx6x52x6fx4ax7ax32 u x36x2ax26x20x3cx43x12x47x25x2fx72 x20x29x27x44x24x25x5dx17x20x2bx33x67xax2ax5x3bx56x4dx2dx5x20x23x20x20x3bx12x74x2cx36x6cx2bx3bx43xax2ax29 27 x57x44x4bx54x65x60x64x76x77x7bx77x77x48x12 q = pu0(ˉca)u0(ˉc0), x33x34 1 ? q = (1 ? p)u0(ˉcb)u0(ˉc0). x25x67x68x19x61xbx4bx54xdx9x4ax25x27x9x51x3bxf (x46x1fx79x48x26x66 u x2x49x54x65x68x48 x17x1fx68 (xdx17x72x3ax3bxf) x5x2x3bx54)x78x5ax67x2x70x48x25x17x71x67x2x4dx70x64xcx5a x69x26x54x1ex37x62x4ax40x6fx62x69x54x2cx68x78x13x70x9x26x49x61x62x50x27x6ax4aaS0x4bS0 x19x1bx54x38x3dx56x48x49x8x61x17xbx6ax4ax54x62x4ax6ex26x78 x44x4bx54x65x63x70x68x48x31x32x3ax3ex75x39x57x58x2fx30x31x54x39x15x6dx4fx1ex64x34x35 x54x5fx60x8x5fx48x49x68x19x6ax4ax62x4ax3x4cx54x10x2bx48x3ax3ex10x26x23x24x68x19x1ex37x62 x4ax40x6fx62x69x78x49x25x18x10x23x60x54x1x2a x1cx1dx24x1ex1fx20x21x22x23x24x25x10x26x27x28 x29x2ax2bx4x2cx2dx20x2ex2fx30x31x32x33x34x1dx35x36x28x37x38x36x3fx30x31x39x25x26x48x39x33 x6dx3cx61xdx8x5fx27x65x63x3dx3ex1ex37x54x62x4ax5fx60x48x67x51x61x21x2ex54x69x63x16x5ex78 x2ex1fx39x44x4bx54x65x63x2cx48x3ax3ex5ax23x3cx19x70x71x57x58x72x73xex4cx2x70x2bx2e x34x78x45x54x29x79x4cx78x6cx79x2x3ax3bx15x4ex5cx5fx60x67x7bx17x6ax3ax48x4x53x2x10x66x3a x3ex25x2bx28x6dx19x2ex25x13x28x6dx54x74x40x5bx2x31x7ex78x3ax3ex47x75x10x3ax3bx65x68x1x79 x49x8x70x4cx5cx7bx17x7dx1x54x61xdx48x7ax13x7fx47x39x1ex77x77x1x2x54x68x4fx5fx60x78x17 x6dx2x10x70x2bx4fx1ex64x34x35x31x54x5fx60x39x1ex48x3ax3ex67x23x68x19x70x2bx10x66x62x27x70 x54x62x4ax55xex78xfx2x7fx1fx4fx1ex64x34x35x31x54x62x4ax55xex31x1fx49x42x43x44x12x70x48 x7fx44x58x70x2bx69x63x44x43x7fx1x2x54x5fx60x78x7bx7ex48x25x5ax2dx73x10xcxdxdx5cx76x33 x5axfx54x57x58x4fx59x51x45x75x79x7ax48x58x10x73x55x1bx2axdx1x76x33x5axfx54x45(x23x69)x4f x56x4fx36x27x70x48x23x25x51x2ex33x34x45x75x78 1.8 x3ax3ex54x51x7ax53x25x26x27x65x2bx2ax79x65x63x39x1cx1dx62x4ax55xex8x5fx54xdx6d x3cx62x4ax63xfx48x13x65x63xdx72x73x62x4ax63xfx78x44x4bx20x19x54x25xbx57x4fx20x2ex53x5bx4d x68x19x27x28x78x3ax3ex42x45x54x2x17x69x63x71x60x48x7bx58xcx3fx45x15x17x40x6fx5ex55x4x36 x37x76x69x48xfx49x68x4fx44xex2ex70x62x3bx3cx2dx2ex2fx51x78x24x17x54x18x23x5ax4dx27x28x70 xbx7x3bx71x45x48xfx2ex2x25x23x20x54x45x77x78 x3dx3ex57x58x4fx69x4bx54x52x3ex3x22x52xfx2ex78x7fx3bx54x52x3ex4fx64x67 [10]–[11]x48 [13]–[16]x78x11x1x5bx2x39x3x31x17x2exdBible (x3dx57) xfx54x2 Hull [16]x48x10x19x11 x13x9x2ex6dx78x25x6fx52x3ex2cx71x3bx4x69x63x51x45x48xfx74x75x63x29x1ax36x2cx68x78 [13], [15], [16]x280x46x4ex5fx8x1ax54x69x63x3dx3ex57x58x4fx54x38x2cx52x3ex78x23x24x2ex1x4e x70x57x3ex26x54x3ex9x78xfx10x3ex75x76x54x7dx3fx43x7fx4ex78x49x25xbx52x3ex8x1ax24xbx54 x38x2cx52x3ex2Famax4Millerx661972x46x8x9x54x65x3dx3ex69x63(The Theory of Finance)x6bx48x24x58 Fama x66 1976 x46x8x9x54x65x3dx3ex4fx40x41 (Foundations of Finance)x6bx78xfx2x10x3ex26x66x5bx2ex44x58x1ax36x2cx68x48x19x57x72x2ex44x40xfx54x47x75x78 x51x7ax54x5ex7ex77x77x38x5dx66Jarrowx54xex78xfx2x4ex4ex3fx16x23x25x53x26x31x7fx19xe xfx54x68x4fx40x26x5cx6ax3bx78 Duffie x54x78x6fxe [10] x4 [11] x13x14xfx4ex78x10x3ex49 x68x4fx44x75x39x21x71xbx48x24x25x66x68x4fx40x41x77x28x54x26x31x78 [9]x10x66x45(x23x69)x4f x56x54x4fx36x27x70x48x6x68x70x26x78x10x58x40x3a Black–Scholes–Mertonx69x63x31x1fx17 x2ax61x11x12x54x66xax4fx1ex69x63x78 Cochrane [8]x2x15x5dx8x9x54x70x6fx20x52x48x10x39 28 x1ex37x62x4ax54x3ax3bx27x45x20x47x4fx74x64x3dx3ex57x58x4fx5fx60x78x76x77x44x57x3ax3exfx7b x5dx48x51x6cx10x10x69x63xex4cx4x71x2cx69x55x54x65x63x3x15x51x45x78x25x10x3dx3ex57x58x4f x54x71x72x7x3bx21x0x51x3cx78xfx10x21x2ex1ex2x39x4fx1ex64x34x35x55x56x8x5fx27x2ax7dx17 x69x63xex4cx54x78 1.7x2x8xex40x6fx5ex55x54x70x2bx7ex41x5cx0x1x78x5ex66x25x50xdx1cx1d x62x4ax55xexf (x8xex2cxcx1xdx6dx70x4ax4bx55xe(law of one price)xfx48x25x2bx53x1e x23x25x26x66Pliska [19]x58x68x19x11x42x48x13x31x5ax2x70x6fx13x14x7bx17x4ex54x68x69x3dx3e x4fx54x52x3e)x54x2ex3bx48xex2x6fx51x7ax11x19[8]x54x13x14x78x25x70x13x14x53x6fx51x7ax49 xbx3x69x54x40x41x44x2ex8x4ex43x3bx54x27x17x78 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x46x5dx15x131.6x41.7x51x2cx54x45x14x5bx0x1x33x69x6ax3cx27R,x4xdx17xbxfx54 x70x38x5b(x66x49x22x4fx18)x19xdx50x27xfx67x2ax41x61(1+R)x38x48x33x34x47x2bx45 x14x54x6bx12x31x32x53x2x32x26x54x7e 4. x7ex1ex54x33x6dx3cx61xdx25x35x1x6ax73x62x4ax7ex16x17x2x49x21x20x19x54x45x14x2cx48 x31x32x3ax3ex73x1bx2ax6ax73x54xdx50x27xfx4ax4bx48x33x34x16x5ex33x6dx3cx61xdx48x3ax25 x10x10x54xdx17xbxfx4ax4bx70xbx37x34x7e 29 5. x3dx3ex37x46x54x62x4ax5fx60x57xdx6ex36xdx4bxfx54xdx62x4axfx5fx60xdx15x5bx2x49x2e x3cx62x70x71x56x54x62x4ax5fx60x78x39x21x65x63x54x45x14x2cx27x3cx48x3ax0x1x10x3ex76 x54x74x75x48x3fx49xbx18x7e x2fx30x31x32 [1] x2cx65x55x48 A. S.x48 1990x48x57x58x4fx1x37x34x58x2ex2x70x23x4ex4fx48x48x7ex9x3ax48 x41x42x4ex4fx8x9x6x78 [2] x6cx74x4bx48 M.x48 1990x48x57x58x4fx69x55x63x48x33x68x30x9x3ax48x41x42x4ex4fx8x9x6x78 [3] x6cx74x4bx48 M. x9x52x48 R. E. x1x40x31x5dx49x48 2000x48x57x58x4fx69x55x63x54x20x55 xfx48x0x4ex4ax9x3ax48x57x58x4ex4fx8x9x6x48x41x42x78 [4] x4bx73x48 L. A., x9x52x48 2000x48x6x72x54x57x58x4fx69x55x63x48x5x4bx36x9x3ax48x57 x58x4ex4fx8x9x6x48x41x42x78 [5] x8x4cx48 K. R.x48 1999x48x4ex4fx5fx1ax54x36x37x48x64x4dx25x3x4ex4fx50x3ax48x41x42x57 x58x4fx56x8x9x6x78 [6] x43x1cx5dx48 J. M.x48 1988x48x67x3x3x3cx6ax4x50x51x7ex63x48x51x52(x53x6f)x3ax48x45x2 x3bxex3cx78 [7] x0x3dx36x48 2002x48x7x28x3x7cx22x3x7cx6ax57x2cx68x4ax4bx48x44x31x7dx32x8x9x6x48x44 x31x78 [8] Cochrane, J. H., 2001, Asset Pricing, Princeton University Press, Prince- ton, N. J.. [9] Dixit, A. K. & R. S. Pindyck, 1993, Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.. 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R., Introduction to Mathematical Finance: Discrete Time Models, Blackwell, Massachusetts. x5cx5d(x5ex36[18])x2ax5fx60x10x61x62x63x41x64x34x10x65x2dx41x66x67x68x69 x3ax1ex25x2bx70x1x2x49 1997 x46 10 x47x6ax42x4ex6x54x70x2bx30x3ex75x13x78x10x5f x36x49x70x2bx1ex77x2ex68x54x6ax6bx54x4ex6cx14x74x7ax6dx14x18x78x49x25x2bx6dx14x18x48x5150 x10x5ex6ex48x59x2bx6cx7dx49x3fx7dx54x6fx5ex10x70x14x2ex71x71x18x4dx7dx4x1bx2ax48xfx39x27 x2ex1bx2ax36x57x54x6fx5ex2x35x71x71x78x8x6dx67x4bx54x4ex6cx14x74x7ax25x6ax75x39x48x31x32 x70x2bx6cx7dx25x63x2cx68x72x54x6fx5ex2ex71x71x48x72xcx2cx49x17x17x13x73x62x78x7fx61x62x6c x7dx3ex5bx5dx10x25x70x25x6ax48x51x6cx5bxfx74x68x48x5ax5bx25x79x4ax19x3fx54x6cx7dx54x74x68x57 x10x18x48x58x5bxfx4fx75x48x4x72x3ex39x2ex24x33xbx6fx5ex2ex71x71x54x6cx7dx7ex69x57x7cx78x61 x62x49x25x2bx6dx14x18x5fx36x61x25x26x54x2bx2ax21x51x2550x2bx76x7dx5bx2ex71x71x48xfx36x51 xbx70x2bx6cx7dx25x63x2cx68x72x54x6fx5ex54x2ex71x71x48x24x5ex25x2bx6dx14x25x63x77x2fx58x7f x16x21x78x78x1ex70x31x47x19x78x51x70x17x5x79x48x63x34x54x7fx73x51x70x6ex6bx71x2bx45x54x6c x7ax3dx27x7bx7cx78x72x54x7dx71x1ax21x37x1bx48x72x54x3fx67x5ex55x3x78x72x7ex2cx7fx58x70x6d x14x18x5ex5fx51x70x2bx69x59x54x6fx5ex78x25x2bx2bx71x48x16x5ex72x3ex19x57x1bx2ax54x48x73x8 x51x1x2exax2ax54x13x32x48xfx2x70x0x25x2bx2bx71x41x1x6ex63x1bx4ax48x4dx5fx36x37x34x7e x1cx6cx2x48x49x6cx7ax3dx54x7fx58x75x13x48x53x79x51 49 x2bx36x71x54x12x14x48x7ax13x48 x19x6550x17x48x49x70x43x4ex59x3x2cx48x21x51x54x6cx7dx5bx13x73x61x72x3ex54x6fx5ex78x75x1 x68x58x25x70x73x2x31x1fx5fx36x54x48x3ax3ex6cx79x61x62x25x18x73x51x70x2bx2ex71x71x54x6fx5e 31 Ax79x36x78x35x61Ax7ex7ex19x48x21x51x7dx5bx1bx2aAx79x36x54x77x2x48x7bx58x17x6cx7ax3d x5fx60x72x54x73x68x54x18x23x48x73x51Ax7ex7ex39x2cx68x1bx70x77x20x34x6ax78x2ex1x70x2bx74 x68x7dx48x72x79x4ax19x31x32x15x1fx17x62x54x6fx5ex2ex71x71x48x72x53x4dx1bx2ax78x7bx7ex48x72x76 x73x8Ax79x36x67x2x33x2bx69x59x3x48x66x2x49x17x17x67x13x61x62x78 x1ax49x61x62x51x78x2bx2ex71x71x54x76x7dx48 Ax79x36x4Bx79x36x78x35x61Ax7ex7ex4 Bx7ex7ex24x19x48x21x51x7dx5bx1bx2ax25x78x14x77x2x48x58Ax7ex7ex73x1bx2aBx7ex7ex59x54x48 B x7ex7ex73x1bx2a A x7ex7ex59x54x78 A x7ex7ex7bx58x39x6cx7ax3dx54x73x68x2cx70x33x21x5bx78 xfx2x65x70x17x1fx13x48 Bx7ex7ex51x36x51x13x73Bx79x36x48x72x76x73x8Ax79x36x70x62x5a x51x4x78 Bx7ex7ex5ax2x25x26x48x72x39Ax7ex7ex65x70x17x36x51x13x73Ax79x36x25x70x2bx71 x68x1bx48 B x79x36x5ax51x4x78x66x2x49x65x8x17x48 A x7ex7ex4 B x7ex7ex5bx13x73x61x72x3e x54x6fx5ex78 x31x32x74x40x17x1x68x28x51x60x2bx51x4x54x6fx5ex48 Ax79x36x3 Bx79x36x4Cx79x36x48 x33x34x6cx7ax3dx54x73x68x49x65x70x17x2ex4dx48x41x15x1fx13x14x48xfx72xdx66xbx4bx47x29x54 x76x69x1fx6ax48 Ax7ex7ex3 Bx7ex7ex4Cx7ex7ex4dx39x5x78x17x18x50x5fx36x15x1fx2bx76x73 x8x48x72x3ex54x6fx5ex5bx2x51x4x54x48x7bx58x49x65x60x17x13x73x61x62x3ex78xcx6x70x2bx68 x4fx30x55x55x54x1fx6ax48x3ax3ex25x63x68x8x31x63x2ax31x32x21x5150x2bx6fx5ex5bx2x2ex71x71 x54x48x62x3ex54x74x68x54x70x14x3ex52xdx25x49x6550x17x2cx68x25x70x77x48x53x33x70x17x41x1 x3bx7ax54x4ex59x3x12x78 x1ax49x3ax3ex5dx63x34x7fx73x27x54x6cx7ax3dx54x7fx58x4ex43x1x10x12x46(1997)x56x17 x7x56x3x6x27x8x9x4x17x62x9xax56x59x54x7ex50x5fx60x54x7fx58x57x70x14x3ex54x5fx0x4 x2ex65x4ex43x1x4fx1ex31x54x5fx0x4x2ex65x57x70x14x3ex73x75x36x57x54xdx6exbxfx36x51x11x79 xcx67x21x9x79xax4ex43x1x4fx1ex31x3ex73x75x36x57x54xdx6exbxfx36x51x11x79xcx67x21x9x79 xax57x13x6fx5ex4ex43x1xdx6ax73x57x7fx58x4x13xex75x76x5450x17x76x2x4ex43x1xfx9x5f x60x4x4ex10x6cx75x76x54x2ex11x48x3ax67x4dx68x19x25x6dx4ex10x6cx54x41x7bx78x21x7bx7cx1ex70x48 x3cx21x6ax6ax7bx3x54x3dx3ex69x12x3ex23x25x19x57x49x13x34x17x62x54x9xax57x58x2x2ex14x70 x4fx54x48xfx18x19x11x7dx31x7ex6ex6fx1ex70x48x51x15x52x5fx3fx61x62x3ex36x50x54x2ex14x70x4f x24xbx48x62x3ex2x2ex4dx4fx30x54x78x25x26x48x6x27x8x9x5x69x491997x464x47x6x7x8 x69x22x4fx54x51x3fx67x14x42x6cx7ax3dx54x7fx58x33x26x54x2ex3bx48x42x41x61x62x15x6cx21x54x25 x6dx15x29x78 x1bx28x2ex5ex2x46x2bx2cx54x6fx5ex3ex33x26x48x42x43x2x25x63x13x36x54x78x1x5bx2x8 x16x13x27x54x7ex14x17x18x70x68x48x31x32x70x14x3ex25x63x37x6fx5ex3ex49x29x19x2cx5fx1axcxd x75x13x13x1x2fx54x3fx48x25x64x72x77x67x4dx21x0x1bx3bx78x25x67x2x1ex2ax6dx2cx54x36x57x73x3 x70x4x3cx78 32