5
El Nino / Southern Oscillation
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
anchoveta
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7 -7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2-2
D e c,,1 9 8 2
Southern Oscillation
Walker and Bliss,1932
Sir G,T,Walker
La Nina
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
D e c, 1 9 8 8
Walker Circulation
P a c i f i c O c e a n s
West Pacific East Pacific
Walker Circulation
tropopause
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Sea level
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
3 6
o
S
1 8
o
S
0
o
1 8
o
N
3 6
o
N
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
4 0
o
S
2 0
o
S
0
o
2 0
o
N
4 0
o
N
West Pacific East Pacific
Walker Circulation
tropopause
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sea level
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7 -7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2-2
D e c,,1 9 8 2
1 9 8 2 - 1 2 1 0 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
1 9 8 2 - 1 2 2 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
1 9 8 2 - 3
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
4567891 9 8 2 - 1 0123 12
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
D e c, 1 9 8 8
1 9 8 8 - 1 2 1 0 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
1 9 8 8 - 1 2 2 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
Jakob Bjerknes
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
海洋 大气
海表温度,海洋次表层温度,海平面高度
气压,风速,风向
对流 /降水
Indices
SOI
Nino SST
Nino 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Nino-SST
Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Greater Than 28 deg,C
Monthly sea surface temperatures above 28 deg,C are shaded,Thick
black contour indicates climatological position of the 28 deg,C isotherm,
Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (deg,C)
?NINO1+2 (0-10S,80-90W),The region that typically warms first when an El Ni?o
event develops,
?NINO3 (5S-5N; 150W-90W),The region of the tropical Pacific that has the largest
variability in sea-surface temperature on El Ni?o time scales,
?NINO4 (5S-5N,160E-150W),The region where changes of sea-surface temperature
lead to total values around 27.5C,which is thought to be an important threshold in
producing rainfall
?NINO3.4 (5S-5N; 170W-120W),The region that has large variability on El Ni?o time
scales,and that is closer (than NINO3) to the region where changes in local sea-surface
temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the
far western Pacific,
OLR
Sea level
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
3 6
o
S
1 8
o
S
0
o
1 8
o
N
3 6
o
N
Deviations are defined here as the difference between the mean sea level
for the given month and the 1975 to 1995 mean sea level at that station,
Contour lines are included to help summarize the data,not to represent
sea surface topography,
Thermocline
Longitude-depth plot of ocean temperature anomaly along the equatorial
Pacific thermocline,Contours drawn at 0.5 deg,C intervals with shading
starting at +/- 0.5 deg,C,Thick black line is the climatological position
of the 20 deg,C isotherm,NCEP is an acronym for the US National
Centers for Environmental Prediction,
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
ENSO cycles,1995-1999
DO,Delayed Oscillation
Waves in oceans
其它解释,
火山,天文,季风,…..,
Simulation
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
Precipitation
Red indicates anomalously warm NINO3,i.e,an ENSO event,
while blue indicates anamolously cool NINO3,a cold event,
1877 1899
1918
Temperature
ENSO-related November through April surface air
temperature anomalies,By C Willmott,K Matsuura,and M Rawlins
Tropical cyclone
a,S pr ingb,S um m e r
c,A u tu m nd,wi nt er
El Nino对中国降水的影响
影响的机制
大气, Walker环流,Hadley环流,遥相关,
海洋, 海洋中波动
Revised Walker Circulation
Hadley Circulation / subtropical high
- 15- 10-5051015
- 0,2
- 0,1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
1 0 S
2 0 S
2 5 S
30S
- 1 5 - 10 -5 0 5 10 15
- 0,1
0.0
0,1
0,2
0.3
0,4
0,5
0.6
0,7
0,8
10N
2 0 N
2 5 N
3 0 N
40N
40S
( a )
全球纬圈平均 500hPa距平与 NinoC区 SST的交叉
落后相关系数 (负号代表 SST超前 )
Teleconnection - PNA / Southern Hemisphere
a
NinoC区 SST与 500hPa高度距平的相关系数
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
0
10
20
30
ENSO指数的频次分布
Pollen Coral
Coral Deposit
Fauna
Science,Vol,291,1496-1497,2001
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
预 测 方 法
国内预报模式
动力模式
1,国家气候中心五个简化海气耦合模式
2,国家气候中心五个复杂耦合模式 (赵其庚、高学
杰、宋永加 )
3,大气所海气耦合模式 IAPAPOGCM ( 周广庆）
统计模式（方法）
1,气候中心 四个统计模式 （相似预报、最优叠合
统计模式,SSA,CCA)
2,海洋局统计模式
3,大气所物理统计模式
4,气候中心 林学椿的统计方法
5,气科院 张先恭的统计方法 正常偏冷
国家气候中心动力模式
作者 /使用者 模式名 模式特征
高学杰等 OSU/NCC 4度 X5度,L2,60m
宋永加等 NCC/IAP T63L16,L30T63
赵其庚等 HCM1POGCM/SA SA,L20 1X1
HCM2IPOGCM/SA SA,L31 1X1
HCM3APIOGCM T63L16,L30T63
李清泉等 NCCo,NCCn,NCC/STI,NCC/NIM,CAMS/NJU
国家气候中心简化海气耦合模式
ENSO预测系统
初始化过程 (NCCo,NCC/STI)
FSU(观测 ) NCEP(再分析 )
平滑,替代,伴随等 1000hPa,850hPa
热带太平洋模式
集合预报 (NCCn,NCC/NJM)
全球热带动力模式
(CAMS/NJU)
合成预报 (SSTA,NINO区指数 )
模式系统主要组成
系统成员 主要研制者 特征
NCCo 李清泉,赵宗慈 热带太平洋,距平,替代
NCCn 张祖强,李清泉,赵宗慈 热带太平洋,距平,发展
NCC/STI 端义宏,梁旭东,李永平 热带太平洋,距平,伴随
CAMS/NJU 倪允琪,史历,殷永红 全球热带海洋,距平
NCC/NIM 张勤,丁一汇,李清泉 热带太平洋,统计大气
集合与集成 钱维宏,邓毅,李清泉 加权平均,多元回归
预报与检验 李清泉等全体 热带太平洋,NINO3指数
距平相关系数,均方误差
1996.6~1998.3El Nino事件预报
NINO3指数检查
(超前 3和 6个月预报距平相关系数 )
模式名 ACC 模式名 ACC
LDEO1 -0.38 NCCo 0.88
LDEO2 -0.48 NCCn 0.89
BMRC 0.70 NCC/STI 0.85
OXF1 0.26 NCC/NIM 0.30
OXF2 0.50 CAMS/NJU 0.99
持续性 0.70
Made in March 2000
1998-2000 La Nina
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
预 测
6-8 month lead forcasts of Nino
3.4 or 3 SST anomaly
Barnston et al,1999
Forecast Nino 3.4 SST anomaly
ECMWF Experimental Seasonal Forecast Project
El Nino / Southern Oscillation
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
anchoveta
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7 -7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2-2
D e c,,1 9 8 2
Southern Oscillation
Walker and Bliss,1932
Sir G,T,Walker
La Nina
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
D e c, 1 9 8 8
Walker Circulation
P a c i f i c O c e a n s
West Pacific East Pacific
Walker Circulation
tropopause
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Sea level
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
3 6
o
S
1 8
o
S
0
o
1 8
o
N
3 6
o
N
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
4 0
o
S
2 0
o
S
0
o
2 0
o
N
4 0
o
N
West Pacific East Pacific
Walker Circulation
tropopause
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sea level
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7 -7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-7
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2-2
D e c,,1 9 8 2
1 9 8 2 - 1 2 1 0 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
1 9 8 2 - 1 2 2 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
1 9 8 2 - 3
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
4567891 9 8 2 - 1 0123 12
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
5 0
o
S
2 5
o
S
0
o
2 5
o
N
5 0
o
N
D e c, 1 9 8 8
1 9 8 8 - 1 2 1 0 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
1 9 8 8 - 1 2 2 0 0 m b
1 5 0
o
E 1 8 0
o
W 1 5 0
o
W 1 2 0
o
W 9 0
o
W
1 2
o
S
6
o
S
0
o
6
o
N
1 2
o
N
Jakob Bjerknes
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
海洋 大气
海表温度,海洋次表层温度,海平面高度
气压,风速,风向
对流 /降水
Indices
SOI
Nino SST
Nino 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index (departure from average)
The Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti - Darwin)
Nino-SST
Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Greater Than 28 deg,C
Monthly sea surface temperatures above 28 deg,C are shaded,Thick
black contour indicates climatological position of the 28 deg,C isotherm,
Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (deg,C)
?NINO1+2 (0-10S,80-90W),The region that typically warms first when an El Ni?o
event develops,
?NINO3 (5S-5N; 150W-90W),The region of the tropical Pacific that has the largest
variability in sea-surface temperature on El Ni?o time scales,
?NINO4 (5S-5N,160E-150W),The region where changes of sea-surface temperature
lead to total values around 27.5C,which is thought to be an important threshold in
producing rainfall
?NINO3.4 (5S-5N; 170W-120W),The region that has large variability on El Ni?o time
scales,and that is closer (than NINO3) to the region where changes in local sea-surface
temperature are important for shifting the large region of rainfall typically located in the
far western Pacific,
OLR
Sea level
1 0 0
o
E 1 5 0
o
E 1 6 0
o
W 1 1 0
o
W 6 0
o
W
3 6
o
S
1 8
o
S
0
o
1 8
o
N
3 6
o
N
Deviations are defined here as the difference between the mean sea level
for the given month and the 1975 to 1995 mean sea level at that station,
Contour lines are included to help summarize the data,not to represent
sea surface topography,
Thermocline
Longitude-depth plot of ocean temperature anomaly along the equatorial
Pacific thermocline,Contours drawn at 0.5 deg,C intervals with shading
starting at +/- 0.5 deg,C,Thick black line is the climatological position
of the 20 deg,C isotherm,NCEP is an acronym for the US National
Centers for Environmental Prediction,
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
ENSO cycles,1995-1999
DO,Delayed Oscillation
Waves in oceans
其它解释,
火山,天文,季风,…..,
Simulation
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
Precipitation
Red indicates anomalously warm NINO3,i.e,an ENSO event,
while blue indicates anamolously cool NINO3,a cold event,
1877 1899
1918
Temperature
ENSO-related November through April surface air
temperature anomalies,By C Willmott,K Matsuura,and M Rawlins
Tropical cyclone
a,S pr ingb,S um m e r
c,A u tu m nd,wi nt er
El Nino对中国降水的影响
影响的机制
大气, Walker环流,Hadley环流,遥相关,
海洋, 海洋中波动
Revised Walker Circulation
Hadley Circulation / subtropical high
- 15- 10-5051015
- 0,2
- 0,1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
1 0 S
2 0 S
2 5 S
30S
- 1 5 - 10 -5 0 5 10 15
- 0,1
0.0
0,1
0,2
0.3
0,4
0,5
0.6
0,7
0,8
10N
2 0 N
2 5 N
3 0 N
40N
40S
( a )
全球纬圈平均 500hPa距平与 NinoC区 SST的交叉
落后相关系数 (负号代表 SST超前 )
Teleconnection - PNA / Southern Hemisphere
a
NinoC区 SST与 500hPa高度距平的相关系数
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
0
10
20
30
ENSO指数的频次分布
Pollen Coral
Coral Deposit
Fauna
Science,Vol,291,1496-1497,2001
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
预 测 方 法
国内预报模式
动力模式
1,国家气候中心五个简化海气耦合模式
2,国家气候中心五个复杂耦合模式 (赵其庚、高学
杰、宋永加 )
3,大气所海气耦合模式 IAPAPOGCM ( 周广庆）
统计模式（方法）
1,气候中心 四个统计模式 （相似预报、最优叠合
统计模式,SSA,CCA)
2,海洋局统计模式
3,大气所物理统计模式
4,气候中心 林学椿的统计方法
5,气科院 张先恭的统计方法 正常偏冷
国家气候中心动力模式
作者 /使用者 模式名 模式特征
高学杰等 OSU/NCC 4度 X5度,L2,60m
宋永加等 NCC/IAP T63L16,L30T63
赵其庚等 HCM1POGCM/SA SA,L20 1X1
HCM2IPOGCM/SA SA,L31 1X1
HCM3APIOGCM T63L16,L30T63
李清泉等 NCCo,NCCn,NCC/STI,NCC/NIM,CAMS/NJU
国家气候中心简化海气耦合模式
ENSO预测系统
初始化过程 (NCCo,NCC/STI)
FSU(观测 ) NCEP(再分析 )
平滑,替代,伴随等 1000hPa,850hPa
热带太平洋模式
集合预报 (NCCn,NCC/NJM)
全球热带动力模式
(CAMS/NJU)
合成预报 (SSTA,NINO区指数 )
模式系统主要组成
系统成员 主要研制者 特征
NCCo 李清泉,赵宗慈 热带太平洋,距平,替代
NCCn 张祖强,李清泉,赵宗慈 热带太平洋,距平,发展
NCC/STI 端义宏,梁旭东,李永平 热带太平洋,距平,伴随
CAMS/NJU 倪允琪,史历,殷永红 全球热带海洋,距平
NCC/NIM 张勤,丁一汇,李清泉 热带太平洋,统计大气
集合与集成 钱维宏,邓毅,李清泉 加权平均,多元回归
预报与检验 李清泉等全体 热带太平洋,NINO3指数
距平相关系数,均方误差
1996.6~1998.3El Nino事件预报
NINO3指数检查
(超前 3和 6个月预报距平相关系数 )
模式名 ACC 模式名 ACC
LDEO1 -0.38 NCCo 0.88
LDEO2 -0.48 NCCn 0.89
BMRC 0.70 NCC/STI 0.85
OXF1 0.26 NCC/NIM 0.30
OXF2 0.50 CAMS/NJU 0.99
持续性 0.70
Made in March 2000
1998-2000 La Nina
1 What’s ENSO
2 Monitoring ENSO
3 Mechanism
4 Climate impact of ENSO
5 Long-term changes of ENSO
6 Predicting ENSO
7 1997/1998 El Nino
预 测
6-8 month lead forcasts of Nino
3.4 or 3 SST anomaly
Barnston et al,1999
Forecast Nino 3.4 SST anomaly
ECMWF Experimental Seasonal Forecast Project
