能源与环境模型
? 模拟模型
? 优化模型
Methodology of the
Leap Model
(模拟模型 )
Methodological framework of
Leap
? The problem is disaggregated into four active levels:
1.Sector 2,Sub-sector
3.End-use 4,Device
? Energy intensity and emission factors are associated
with each device at the level 4
? Total energy demand and emission amount are
calculated
Methodological framework of Leap
Ene r gy
Intens ity
Em iss ion
Fa c tor
Em iss ion
Ene r gy
D e m a nd
Tr a v e l
D e m a nd
Sub-s e c tor
End-U s e
D e v ice
How Leap Works
? Forecast the total travel demand
? Estimate the energy demand
? Estimate the emission amount and the
concentration of pollutants
Forecast the total travel demand
V e hic le N um be r
b y ty p e
E ffe c tiv e
U tiliza tion
b y ty p e
V e hic le Sp a c e
b y ty p e
E l a s ticity c o e fficie n t b e tw e e n th e
tra v e l d e m a n d a n d th e i n c o m e
Tota l Tr a v e l D e m a nd
B a s e d y e a r
Tota l Tr a v e l D e m a nd
O b j e c te d y e a r
Estimation of the energy
demand
Tra v e l D e m a nd
zz
R oad R a il
Ene r gy De m a nd
M o t o r
L D D T
L D G T 2
H D G T
H D D V
L D G V
L D D V
L D G T 1
L i g h t
R a i l
S u b w a
y
F u el
ef fici en cy
Ve h i cle
Sp ac e
Estimation of
the emission amount
and the concentration of
pollutants
Tr a v e l D e m a nd
zz
R oa d R a il
E m is s ion A m ount
Ob jec te d Ye a r
M o t o r
L D D T
L D G T 2
H D G T
H D D V
L D G V
L D D V
L D G T 1
L i g h t
R a i l
S u b w a
y
E m iss io n
F a c to r
T y p e o f F u e l
U s e d
A ir C o n c e n trat io n (B a s e d y e a r)
E m iss io n A m o u n t (B a s e d y e a r)
A ir C onc e ntr a tion
Ob jec te d Ye a r
Data requirement for
model input
Data requirement for model
input
? Calculating Precision
? Data Branch
– Travel Demand
– Active Levels (VKT)
– Factor
Calculating Precision
? Basic calculation
– Only passenger transport are considered
– Vehicle type
Gasoline car,Diesel bus,Light rail,Subway
– Pollutant type
CO,NOx,HC,SO2,TSP,PM10,CO2
Calculating Precision
? Advanced calculation
– Both passenger and freight transport are considered
– Vehicle type
LDGV,LDDV,LDGT1,LDGT2,LDDT,HDGT
HDDV,Motorcycles,Light rail,Subway
– Pollutant type
CO,NOx,HC,SO2,TSP,PM10,CO2
Travel Demand? Population
– 1990-2000
? Prediction of the natural growth rate of population
– %,2000-2020
? Income per capita
– US $/person,1990-2000
? Prediction of the growth rate of the income per capita
– %,2000-2020
? Number of vehicles
– 1990-2000,by type
? Effective utilization
– km/y,1990-2000,by type
Active Levels? Sector
– Total travel demand
Passenger·km or Tonne·km
? Sub-sector
– Share of the road traffic
1990-2000
? End-use
– Share of each vehicle type
Percent,1990-2000
? Device
– Vehicle space
Passenger·km/ Vehicle·km or Tonne·km/ Vehicle·km
Factor
? Average fuel efficiency
– km/l,1990-2000,by vehicle types
? Fuel Cost
– US$/l,1990-2000
? Average emission factor of each pollutant
– by vehicle types,by journey speed
? Emission amount and air concentration of each
pollutant
– 1990-2000
Energy Production and Consumption in China
--high growth rate of energy production
E n e r g y P r o d u c t i o n i n C h i n a 1 9 4 9 - 1 9 9 5
Y e a r
T o t a l
( M t c e )
C o a l
( M t )
O i l
( M t )
N G
( G m
3
)
E l e c, G e n e r a t i o n
( T W h )
T o t a l H y d r o p o w e r
1 9 4 9 2 3, 7 1 3 2, 0 0, 1 2 0, 0 0 7 4, 3 0, 7
1 9 5 2 4 8, 7 1 6 6, 0 0, 4 4 0, 0 0 8 7, 3 1 7, 3
1 9 5 7 9 8, 6 1 1 3 1, 0 1, 4 6 0, 0 7 1 9, 3 4, 8
1 9 6 2 1 7 1, 8 5 2 2 0, 0 5, 7 5 1, 2 1 4 5, 8 9, 0
1 9 6 5 1 8 8, 2 4 2 3 2, 0 1 1, 3 1 1, 1 0 8 7, 6 1 0, 4
1 9 7 0 3 0 9, 9 0 3 5 4, 0 3 0, 6 5 2, 8 7 1 1 5, 9 2 0, 5
1 9 7 5 4 8 7, 5 4 4 8 2, 0 7 7, 0 6 8, 8 5 1 9 5, 8 4 7, 6
1 9 8 0 6 3 7, 3 5 6 2 0, 0 1 0 5, 9 5 1 4, 2 7 3 0 0, 6 5 8, 2
1 9 8 5 8 5 5, 4 8 8 7 2, 0 1 2 4, 9 0 1 2, 9 3 4 1 0, 7 9 2, 4
1 9 9 0 1 0 3 9, 2 2 1 0 8 0, 0 1 3 8, 3 1 1 5, 3 0 6 2 1, 2 1 2 6, 7
1 9 9 1 1 0 4 8, 4 4 1 0 8 7, 4 1 4 0, 9 9 1 5, 4 9 6 7 7, 6 1 2 5, 1
1 9 9 2 1 0 7 2, 5 6 1 1 1 6, 4 1 4 2, 1 0 1 5, 7 9 7 5 3, 9 1 3 2, 4
1 9 9 3 1 1 1 1, 1 0 1 1 5 0, 7 1 4 5, 2 4 1 6, 7 7 8 3 9, 5 1 5 1, 8
1 9 9 4 1 1 8 7, 2 9 1 2 3 9, 9, 0 1 4 6, 0 8 1 7, 6 0 9 2 8, 1 1 6 8, 1
1 9 9 5 1 2 3 9, 4 1 1 2 9 8, 0 1 4 9, 0 0 1 7, 6 0 1 0 0 0, 0 1 8 8, 0
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
-- Macro economic and demographic indicators
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
G N P g r o w t h r a t e,%
G N P,b i l l i o n Y u a n R M B
p o p u l a t i o n,b i l l i o n
p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e,%
p o p u l a t i o n i n u r b a n,1 0
8
p o p u l a t i o n i n r u r a l,1 0
8
1 7 6 8
1, 1 4 3
3, 0 2
8, 4 1
9, 0
4 1 8 5
1, 2 9 4
1, 2 5
4, 0 6
8, 8 8
7, 5
8 6 2 5
1, 3 9 0
0, 7 2
5, 1 0
8, 8 0
6, 0
1 5 4 4 5
1, 4 5 0
0, 4 2
6, 5 0
8, 0 0
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
-- Forecast on end-energy demand and mix
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
M t c e % M t c e % M t c e % M t c e %
C o a l 3 8 9, 8 7 4 0, 9 4 4 0, 2 2 3 1, 6 4 9 7, 3 0 2 6, 5 4 8 7, 3 3 2 0, 4
O i l 5, 5 3 0, 6 0, 0 0 0, 0 0, 0 0 0, 0 0 0, 0 0 0, 0 0
N a t u r a l G a s 1 9, 8 4 2, 2 3 4, 5 5 2, 5 8 7, 9 6 3, 6 1 3 2, 0 0 5, 5
E l e c t r i c i t y 2 2 2, 9 8 2 4, 6 4 4 9, 9 5 3 2, 3 7 1 8, 0 9 3 8, 3 1 0 6 2, 4 7 4 4, 4
O i l P r o d u c t s 1 3 1, 2 6 1 4, 5 2 4 0, 1 2 1 7, 2 2 9 3, 7 8 1 5, 7 3 4 9, 3 1 4, 6
W a s h e d C o a l 1 4, 8 1 1, 6 1 5, 7 5 1, 1 1 6, 2 2 0, 9 1 5, 7 8 0, 7
C o k e 6 6, 0 4 7, 3 9 5, 5 9 6, 9 1 1 6, 8 4 6, 2 1 3 6, 0 0 5, 7
C o k e O v e n G a s 8, 6 1 1, 0 1 1, 3 2 0, 8 1 4, 4 9 0, 8 1 4, 9 6 0, 6
H e a t 3 0, 7 7 3, 4 5 7, 8 9 4, 1 9 3, 0 3 5, 0 1 3 2, 6 1 5, 6
O t h e r s 3 5, 8 1 3, 9 4 8, 9 6 3, 5 5 6, 8 1 3, 0 5 9, 5 6 2, 5
T o t a l 9 0 5, 3 4 1 0 0 1 3 9 4, 4 1 0 0 1 8 7 4, 8, 1 0 0 2 3 9 0, 0 5 1 0 0
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
--Forecast on primary energy demand and mix
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
T o t a l ( M t c e ) 9 8 7, 0 2 1 4 9 5, 2 8 2 0 0 1, 0 4 2 5 4 7, 9 1
C o a l ( M t ) 1 0 8 3, 0 0 1 4 9 1, 0 0 1 9 2 4, 0 0 2 2 5 0, 0 0
O i l ( M t ) 1 3 8, 0 0 2 0 0, 0 0 2 5 0, 7 0 3 0 0, 9 0
N a t u r a l G a s ( G m
3
) 1 5, 8 0 3 0, 0 0 6 0, 0 0 1 2 0, 0 0
H y d r o p o w e r & o t h e r s ( T W h ) 1 2 6, 2 0 2 8 8, 2 0 5 7 5, 6 0 1 0 9 4, 8 0
E n e r g y D e m a n d M i x ( % )
C o a l 7 4, 2 5 7 1, 2 3 6 8, 6 3 6 3, 0 8
O i l 1 8, 9 8 1 9, 1 7 1 7, 8 9 1 6, 8 7
N a t u r a l G a s 2, 0 1 2, 6 6 3, 9 9 6, 2 9
H y d r o p o w e r 4, 7 4 6, 4 6 7, 1 5 9, 1 8
O t h e r s 0, 0 2 0, 4 8 2, 3 4 4, 5 8
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
-- prediction indications
? The total primary energy consumption will increase
significantly,It will be more than doubled by 2020,
? The share of coal in end use will decrease significantly,
while still dominating the primary energy supply,
? Electricity will play a more important role in end use,
? Natural gas will increase but is limited by the supply,
? Industry will remain the major energy consumer in the
target year,while the share of residential energy
consumption will slowly increase.
Air Pollution Related to Energy Consumption
--Pollutants Emissions Over Time Horizon
at BAU Scenario
P o l l u t a n t s 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
C O
2
,M t - C
S O
2
,M t
N O
x
,M t
P M,M t
C O,M t
C H
4
,M t
6 4 7
1 6, 2 3
9, 1 1
1 1, 4 9
2 9, 1 6
7, 6 9
1 0 2 7
2 3, 8 0
1 5, 6 0
1 7, 9 9
5 0, 4 3
1 1, 0 5
1 3 6 9
3 1, 0 9
2 1, 9 2
2 4, 5 9
7 0, 4 0
1 5, 0 9
1 6 3 6
3 5, 5 2
2 8, 3 9
2 9, 6 3
8 5, 7 8
1 8, 2 9
Conclusions--
Reduction of primary energy supplies under
enhanced environmental scenarios,Mtce
2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
B
1
- B
A
B
2
- B
A
B
1
- B
A
B
2
- B
A
B
1
- B
A
B
2
- B
A
P r i m a r y e n e r g y s u p p l i e s
I n w h i c h, C o a l
H y d r o p o w e r
N u c l e a r p o w e r
B i o m a s s
- 2 3, 6 9
- 5 4, 9 7
1 9, 4 8
1 1, 8
- 2 9, 3 8
- 6 0, 6 6
1 9, 4 8
1 1, 8
- 4 2, 0 5
- 1 1 4, 5
2 6, 4 5
2 1, 4 7
2 4, 5 4
- 5 2, 2 6
- 1 5 3, 0
3 9, 6 8
3 5, 0 0
2 4, 5 4
-
6 2, 6 4
-
1 5 8, 9
2 8, 1 8
3 8, 9
2 9, 2
-
5 5, 1 2
-
2 5 7, 6
5 8, 9 3
1 1 4, 4
2 9, 2 0
I m p o r t
E x p o r t
2, 4 7
- 1, 3 5
2, 3 8
- 0, 8 8
2, 5 0
- 0, 0 8
1, 9 8
- 0, 3 9
1, 9 7
- 0, 7 6
- 4, 8 6
- 0, 8 8
S u p p l y o f p r i m a r y - 2 2, 5 7 - 2 7, 8 9 - 3 9, 6 4 - 5 2, 2 6 -
6 5, 3 8
-
6 0, 8 6
N o t e, S y m b o l, -, i n d i c a t e s e n e r g y a m o u n t r e d u c e d,
B
A
,B
1
,B
2
r e p r e s e n t s B A U,s c e n a r i o I a n d I I,r e s p e c t i v e l y,
Conclusions--
Reduction of Pollutant Emissions for Enhanced
Scenario I and II over BAU
2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
B
A
B
1
B
2
B
A
B
1
B
2
B
A
B
1
B
2
C O
2
E m i s s, ( M t C )
R e d u c t, ( M t C )
R a t e ( % )
1 0 2 6 9 8 2
4 4, 7
4, 3 6
9 8 2
4 4, 2
4, 3 0
1 3 6 9 1 2 8 0
8 9, 2
6, 5 1
1 2 5 4
1 1 5
8, 3 9
1 6 3 5 1 4 9 6
1 3 9
8, 5 0
1 4 2 6
2 0 9
1 2, 8 1
C O
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
5 0, 4 3 4 8, 3 7
2, 0 6
4, 0 8
4 7, 3 3
3, 1 0
6, 1 5
7 0, 4 0 6 6, 5 6
3, 8 4
5, 4 5
6 5, 4 1
4, 9 9
7, 0 9
8 5, 7 8 8 1, 1 2
4, 6 6
5, 4 3
7 9, 6 3
6, 1 5
7, 1 7
N O
X
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
1 5, 6 0 1 5, 1 4
0, 4 6
2, 9 5
1 5, 2 2
0, 3 8
2, 4 4
2 1, 9 2 2 0, 9 6
0, 9 6
4, 3 8
2 0, 6 1
1, 3 1
5, 9 8
2 8, 3 9 2 6, 4 0
1, 9 9
7, 0 1
2 5, 2 4
3, 1 5
1 1, 1 0
S O
2
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
2 3, 8 0 2 0, 8 4
2, 9 6
1 2, 4 4
2 0, 4 5
3, 3 5
1 4, 0 8
3 1, 0 9 2 5, 0 2
6, 0 7
1 9, 5 2
2 3, 5 2
7, 5 7
2 4, 3 5
3 5, 5 2 2 5, 8 6
9, 6 6
2 7, 1 9
2 2, 7 4
1 2, 7 8
3 5, 9 8
P M
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
1 7, 9 9 1 6, 2 9
1, 7 0
9, 4 5
1 6, 3 2
1, 6 7
9, 2 8
2 4, 5 9 2 1, 0 8
3, 5 1
1 4, 2 7
2 0, 3 1
4, 2 8
1 7, 4 1
2 9, 6 3 2 3, 5 6
6, 0 7
2 0, 4 8
2 1, 3 7
8, 2 6
2 7, 8 8
Energy Production and Consumption in China
--Energy production and consumption
locate unevenly
T h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s a n d E c o n o m i c f o r 1 9 9 0,%
N o r t h e r n
C h i n a
N o r t h
e a s t
E a s t e r n
C h i n a
C e n t r a l
s o u t h
S o u t h
w e s t
N o r t h
w e s t
T o t a l r e s o u r c e s
c o a l
h y d r o p o w e r
o i l a n d
n a t u r a l g a s
3 2, 3
4 3, 2
1, 2
1 0, 0
5, 9
5, 8
2, 0
4 7, 8
9, 6
1 1, 4
3, 6
1 8, 4
8, 5
6, 2
1 5, 5
8, 0
2 3, 7
9, 9
6 7, 8
4, 7
2 0, 0
2 3, 6
9, 9
1 1, 1
G N P 1 3, 6 1 1 3, 5 2 3 4, 0 6 2 2, 8 6 1 0, 1 0 5, 8 5
T o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n
c o a l
e l e c t r i c i t y
1 9, 6 1
2 0, 4 7
1 7, 3 0
1 8, 2 7
1 7, 0 9
1 4, 5 4
2 5, 4 0
2 8, 1 1
2 9, 3 5
1 7, 9 6
1 6, 6 1
2 1, 2 0
1 1, 7 0
1 1, 3 5
9, 3 1
7, 0 6
6, 3 8
8, 3 2
Conclusions
With the inclusion of above actions and options,what
would happen under enhanced scenarios,compared with
business-as-usual,is revealed below:
? Changing mix of primary energy supply
? Reducing the demand of primary energy
? Mitigating emissions of various pollutants
Conclusions
The development strategy for sustainable development of
energy and environmental protection includes,
? implementing comprehensive planning of energy,which
incorporating environmental considerations;
? improving energy efficiency and conservation;
? diversifying energy supplies into non-coal sources;
? investing in industrial air pollution control.
MODELING INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN
CHINA POWER SECTOR AND IMPLICATIONS
OF SINO-US CARBON TRADING
(优化模型 )
The Goal of This
Research
? Determine the most cost effective investment strategy for the
required additional capacity to meet the increasing electricity
demand of China
? Investigate the impacts of the growing electric power sector
on the environment
? Identify the impact of economic policies and environmental
regulations on the future technology choices
? Analyze the technological options available to China to
reduce pollution
? Explore the possibility for US-China Carbon trading
Coal
washing
Electricity
demands
regionwide &
nationwide
HH-coal
MH-coal
LH-coal
HL-coal
ML-coal
LL-coal
Rail
Road
Ship
Rail & ship
Raw coal
Rail
Pipeline
Ship
Rail & ship
Crude oil
Natural gas
wires
Transmitted
inter-regionally
Renewable Reserves
Parameters,
Economic
Technical
Environmental
Social
Emissions cap
Emissions
transfer limit
Sulfur deposit
Fuel
mining
cost
+
Coal
washing
cost
+
Fuel
transport
cost
+
Electricity
generation &
transmission
cost
Minimum
Oil & gas import
Parameter descriptions
16 technologies,
? DOMSML,Unit capacity?100MW
? DOMMED,100--200 MW
? DOMESP,?300MW with ESP
? DOMSCB,?300MW with scrubber
? DOMBIG,200--300 MW with ESP
? AFBC,foreign atmospheric fluidized bed
? IGCC,integrated gasification combined cycle
? PFBC,Pressurized FBC
? OILREG,oil fired traditional unit
? Oilcc,oil fired combined cycle
? GASCC,gas turbine combined cycle
? NUCLEAR,nuclear power
? HYDRO,hydroelectric power
? WIND,PV,Geothermal power
Six types of coal
? HHCOAL:
[S] ?3%,[ash] ?20%
? MHCOAL:
[S]=1-3%,[ash] ?20%
? LHCOAL:
[S]?1%,[ash] ?20%
? HLCOAL:
[S] ?1%,[ash]?20%
? MLCOAL:
[S] =1-3%%,[ash] ?20%
? LLCOAL:
[S] ?1%,[ash] ?20%
Six Region Presentation of China
N o r t h e a s t
E a s t
S o u t h w e s t
S o u t h c e n t r a l
N o r t h w e s t N o r t h
Model Constraints
? Demand constraints to meet electricity demand in each
time period and region
? Fuel supply constraints
? Transportation capacity and transmission restrictions
? Electricity generation constraints based on conversion
efficiencies and capacity factors of technologies
? Environmental constraints (limits on SO2 emissions,
sulfur depositions,and CO2 targets)
L evel i z e d c o st ca l cu l at i o n t o ge n er at e 1 K W h i n E A r eg i o n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DOM DOM DOM DOM DOM AF B C P F B C I GC C GA S OI L OI L HYD NUC L W I ND GT PV
E S P S C B M E D B I G S M L CC CC R E G RO E A R
C a p i t a l,$/KW 607 658 650 625 676 850 1125 1150 800 600 530 900 1350 1000 3000 4500
C o n s t r uc t i o n pe r i o d,y e a r 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 1 2 8 7 1 1 2
e c o n o m i c li f e,y e a r 30 30 30 30 20 30 30 30 20 20 20 50 30 20 15 30
Ann ua l ge n e r a t i o n h o ur s 6500 6500 6000 6500 5500 6500 6500 6500 6000 6000 5500 4000 7000 3000 5700 2500
D i s c o un t e d r a t e,% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
I n t e r e s t f a c t o r 3,31 3,31 3,31 3,31 2,10 3,31 3,31 3,31 1,00 1,00 2,10 11,44 9,49 1,00 1,10 2,10
L e v e li z e d c a p i t a l,$/ KW 71,04 77,01 76,08 73,15 83,37 99,48 131,67 134,60 93,97 70,48 65,37 129,81 194,15 117,46 433,86 501,22
L e v e li z e d c a p i t a l,c e n t /KWh 1,093 1,185 1,268 1,125 1,516 1,531 2,026 2,071 1,566 1,175 1,188 3,245 2,774 3,915 7,612 20,049
E f f i c i e n c y,% 36,0 35,5 33,5 34,5 26,5 37,5 39,5 39,5 40,0 40,0 35,0 33,0
F ue l c o n s u m p.,kgc e /KWh 0,341 0,346 0,367 0,356 0,464 0,328 0,311 0,311 0,307 0,307 0,351 0,372
F ue l u s e,kg or m
3
/KWh 0,478 0,485 0,514 0,499 0,649 0,459 0,436 0,436 0,231 0,215 0,246 0,0038
F ue l pr i c e,c e n t /kg o r m
3
1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 9,00 10,84 10,8 630
F ue l c o s t,c e n t /K W h 0,72 0,73 0,77 0,75 0,97 0,69 0,65 0,65 2,08 2,33 2,65 2,39
T r a n s po r t c o s t,c e n t /kg 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 0 0 0
F ue l pr i c e 1,c e n t /kg o r m
3 (1 )
3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 9,00 10,84 10,80 0,00 630 0,00 0,00 0,00
F ue l c o s t 1,c e n t /K W h
(2 )
1,55 1,58 1,67 1,62 2,11 1,49 1,42 1,42 2,08 2,33 2,65 0,00 2,39 0,00 0,00 0,00
Va r i a bl e c o s t,c e n t /KWh 0,35 0,72 0,40 0,36 0,50 0,45 0,45 0,45 0,40 0,28 0,28 0,10 0,40 0,20 0,01 0,01
F i xe d c o s t,c e n t /K W h 0,28 0,30 0,33 0,29 0,37 0,39 0,52 0,53 0,40 0,30 0,29 0,34 0,58 0,50 0,79 2,70
L e v e li z e d c o s t,c e n t /KWh
(3 )
2,440 2,936 2,763 2,522 3,061 3,648 3,705 4,445 4,086 4,412 3,683 6,146 4,615 8,406 22,756
L e v e li z e d c o s t 1,c e n t /KWh
(4 )
3,276 3,784 3,662 3,395 4,495 3,864 4,411 4,467 4,445 4,086 4,412 3,683 6,146 4,615 8,406 22,756
T r a n s mi s s i o n c o s t,c e n t /KWh T r a n s mi s s i o n c o s t o f 1 KW h f r o m NO to E A i s a b o ut 1, 373 c e n t s,
N o t e,(1 )Fu el p ri ce 1 i s d e f i n ed as t h e f u e l p ri ce i n E as t,w h i ch e q u al s t o f u e l p ri c e i n N o rt h p l u s t ran s p o rt at i o n c o s t fro m N o rt h t o E as t
(2 )Fu el co s t 1 e q u al s fu el u s e ( k g o r m
3
/ k w h ) mu l t i p l i e d b y fu el p ri ce 1 ( ce n t / k g o r m
3
)
(3 )L ev e l i z e d c o s t i s t h e s u m o f l ev e l i z e d c ap i t al,fu el co s t,v ari ab l e co s t an d f i x ed c o s t
(4 )L ev e l i z e d c o s t i s t h e s u m o f l ev e l i z e d c ap i t al,fu el co s t 1,v ari ab l e c o s t an d fi x e d co s t
How the model works
L e v e l i z e d c o s t o f e l e c t r i c p o w e r
0, 0
1, 0
2, 0
3, 0
4, 0
5, 0
6, 0
7, 0
8, 0
9, 0
T e c h n o l o g y
L
e
v
e
l
i
z
e
d
c
o
s
t
(
1
9
9
5
c
e
n
t
/
k
w
h
)
D
O
M
E
S
P
D
O
M
B
I
G
D
O
M
M
E
D
H
Y
D
R
O
D
O
M
S
C
B
A
F
B
C
O
I
L
C
C
P
F
B
C
D
O
M
S
M
L
I
G
C
C
O
I
L
R
E
G
G
A
S
C
C
W
I
N
D
N
U
C
L
E
A
R
GT
How the model works
R ESU LT S OF T H E POW ER
SEC T OR M OD EL
D e v e l o p e d b y, H a r v a r d Uni v e r s i ty
Case2 Case3 Case4 Case5
Case1 Case1.1 Case1.2 Case1.3
Unrealistic cases
Realistic cases
Base case With SO2constraints
With SO2
& CO2
constraints
With SO2
constraints +
carbon tax
$25/tC
Ca pa city o f ea ch t echno lo g y in yea r 20 2 0 ( GW)
C a se 1 C a se 1.1 C a se 1.2 C a se 1.3
AF B C 0 0 0 0
DOMB I G 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6
DOMES P 507.04 403.45 408.72 404.25
DOMM ED 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95
DOMS C B 0.72 102.31 46.79 102.02
DOMS ML 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14
GASC C 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
GT 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
HYDRO 57.4 57.4 138.46 57.4
I GCC 0 0 0 0
NUCL EAR 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
OI L C C 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
OI L R EG 0 0 0 0
P F B C 0 0 0 0
PV 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
W I ND 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Total 645.38 643.38 674.2 643.9
Unrealistic Cases
C as e 1 C as e 1,1 C as e 1,2 C as e 1,3
C o al 9 3,7 9 9 3,4 3 8 5,3 2 9 3,4 0
O il 0,0 8 0,4 3 0,4 6 0,4 6
G as 0,0 3 0,0 3 0,0 3 0,0 3
H y d ro 5,7 3 5,7 3 1 3,8 1 5,7 3
N u cle ar 0,3 7 0,3 7 0,3 7 0,3 7
Unrealistic cases
Percentage of electricity generation by technologies
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5
Coal 93,79 76,90 75,05 71,66 75,61
Oil 0.0 8 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.2 4
Gas 0.0 3 1.5 8 2.2 1 4.0 4 1.6 6
Hyd ro 5.7 3 19,02 20,24 20,09 20,24
Oth ers 0.0 0 0.8 8 0.8 8 1.6 5 0.8 8
Nucle ar 0.3 7 0.3 7 0.3 7 1.3 3 0.3 7
Mix of electricity generation
for 5 cases in 2020
Ca se 1 Ca se 2 Ca se 3 Ca se 4 Ca se 5
1995 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 2.57
2000 2.50 3.96 4.80 6.02 5.01
2005 2.51 3.74 3.82 7.44 4.13
2010 2.51 4.72 4.91 23.07 5.01
2015 2.51 4.76 5.46 28.37 5.50
2020 2.51 4.74 5.50 14.66 5.58
National electricity generation price
for realistic cases (US cent/kwh)
M a r g i n a l C o s t o f C a r b o n
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1, 7 1, 8 1, 9 2, 0 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4
C o n s t r a i n e d 2 0 1 0 E m i s s i o n s / 1 9 9 5 E m i s s i o n s
M
C
o
f
C
(
$
/
t
C
)
Marginal Cost of Carbon in Power Sector
for the Realistic Base Case
C a r b o n Em i s s i o n s fr o m C h i n e s e Po w e r I n d u s tr y u n d e r d i ffe r e n t U S-
C h i n a C a r b o n T r a d i n g Sc e n a r i o s (C a s e 2 )
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
y e a r
M
tC
B A U
U S b u y s 1 6, 1 M t C a t $ 1 4, 1 5 / t C
U S b u y s 4 3, 4 M t C a t $ 2 2 4, 9 5 / t C
U S b u y s 9 0 M t C a t $ 2 3 1, 6 4 / t C
? The nonlinear optimization model that has a user-friendly graphical
interface can be used as a decision support tool by policy-makers
? Given that coal is China’s dominant energy source,existing policies
discourage the expansion of gas- and oil-fired power,long-distance
transportation of coal for power still keep competitive,and electricity
transmission from SW to SC is economically attractive,Even China’s
power industry makes a big progress in improvement of efficiency and
coal quality,it continuously will face huge pressures stemming from the
requirements of SO2 and CO2 emissions reduction
? Traditional CCTs,such as coal washing,scrubber and AFBC,will play
a key role to meet the target of SO reductions addressed by
government,However,this requires the formulation of three center,
coal washing in NO,scrubber in EA and hydroelectric power in SW
(no new coal-fired power).
Conclusions and Recommendations
? 模拟模型
? 优化模型
Methodology of the
Leap Model
(模拟模型 )
Methodological framework of
Leap
? The problem is disaggregated into four active levels:
1.Sector 2,Sub-sector
3.End-use 4,Device
? Energy intensity and emission factors are associated
with each device at the level 4
? Total energy demand and emission amount are
calculated
Methodological framework of Leap
Ene r gy
Intens ity
Em iss ion
Fa c tor
Em iss ion
Ene r gy
D e m a nd
Tr a v e l
D e m a nd
Sub-s e c tor
End-U s e
D e v ice
How Leap Works
? Forecast the total travel demand
? Estimate the energy demand
? Estimate the emission amount and the
concentration of pollutants
Forecast the total travel demand
V e hic le N um be r
b y ty p e
E ffe c tiv e
U tiliza tion
b y ty p e
V e hic le Sp a c e
b y ty p e
E l a s ticity c o e fficie n t b e tw e e n th e
tra v e l d e m a n d a n d th e i n c o m e
Tota l Tr a v e l D e m a nd
B a s e d y e a r
Tota l Tr a v e l D e m a nd
O b j e c te d y e a r
Estimation of the energy
demand
Tra v e l D e m a nd
zz
R oad R a il
Ene r gy De m a nd
M o t o r
L D D T
L D G T 2
H D G T
H D D V
L D G V
L D D V
L D G T 1
L i g h t
R a i l
S u b w a
y
F u el
ef fici en cy
Ve h i cle
Sp ac e
Estimation of
the emission amount
and the concentration of
pollutants
Tr a v e l D e m a nd
zz
R oa d R a il
E m is s ion A m ount
Ob jec te d Ye a r
M o t o r
L D D T
L D G T 2
H D G T
H D D V
L D G V
L D D V
L D G T 1
L i g h t
R a i l
S u b w a
y
E m iss io n
F a c to r
T y p e o f F u e l
U s e d
A ir C o n c e n trat io n (B a s e d y e a r)
E m iss io n A m o u n t (B a s e d y e a r)
A ir C onc e ntr a tion
Ob jec te d Ye a r
Data requirement for
model input
Data requirement for model
input
? Calculating Precision
? Data Branch
– Travel Demand
– Active Levels (VKT)
– Factor
Calculating Precision
? Basic calculation
– Only passenger transport are considered
– Vehicle type
Gasoline car,Diesel bus,Light rail,Subway
– Pollutant type
CO,NOx,HC,SO2,TSP,PM10,CO2
Calculating Precision
? Advanced calculation
– Both passenger and freight transport are considered
– Vehicle type
LDGV,LDDV,LDGT1,LDGT2,LDDT,HDGT
HDDV,Motorcycles,Light rail,Subway
– Pollutant type
CO,NOx,HC,SO2,TSP,PM10,CO2
Travel Demand? Population
– 1990-2000
? Prediction of the natural growth rate of population
– %,2000-2020
? Income per capita
– US $/person,1990-2000
? Prediction of the growth rate of the income per capita
– %,2000-2020
? Number of vehicles
– 1990-2000,by type
? Effective utilization
– km/y,1990-2000,by type
Active Levels? Sector
– Total travel demand
Passenger·km or Tonne·km
? Sub-sector
– Share of the road traffic
1990-2000
? End-use
– Share of each vehicle type
Percent,1990-2000
? Device
– Vehicle space
Passenger·km/ Vehicle·km or Tonne·km/ Vehicle·km
Factor
? Average fuel efficiency
– km/l,1990-2000,by vehicle types
? Fuel Cost
– US$/l,1990-2000
? Average emission factor of each pollutant
– by vehicle types,by journey speed
? Emission amount and air concentration of each
pollutant
– 1990-2000
Energy Production and Consumption in China
--high growth rate of energy production
E n e r g y P r o d u c t i o n i n C h i n a 1 9 4 9 - 1 9 9 5
Y e a r
T o t a l
( M t c e )
C o a l
( M t )
O i l
( M t )
N G
( G m
3
)
E l e c, G e n e r a t i o n
( T W h )
T o t a l H y d r o p o w e r
1 9 4 9 2 3, 7 1 3 2, 0 0, 1 2 0, 0 0 7 4, 3 0, 7
1 9 5 2 4 8, 7 1 6 6, 0 0, 4 4 0, 0 0 8 7, 3 1 7, 3
1 9 5 7 9 8, 6 1 1 3 1, 0 1, 4 6 0, 0 7 1 9, 3 4, 8
1 9 6 2 1 7 1, 8 5 2 2 0, 0 5, 7 5 1, 2 1 4 5, 8 9, 0
1 9 6 5 1 8 8, 2 4 2 3 2, 0 1 1, 3 1 1, 1 0 8 7, 6 1 0, 4
1 9 7 0 3 0 9, 9 0 3 5 4, 0 3 0, 6 5 2, 8 7 1 1 5, 9 2 0, 5
1 9 7 5 4 8 7, 5 4 4 8 2, 0 7 7, 0 6 8, 8 5 1 9 5, 8 4 7, 6
1 9 8 0 6 3 7, 3 5 6 2 0, 0 1 0 5, 9 5 1 4, 2 7 3 0 0, 6 5 8, 2
1 9 8 5 8 5 5, 4 8 8 7 2, 0 1 2 4, 9 0 1 2, 9 3 4 1 0, 7 9 2, 4
1 9 9 0 1 0 3 9, 2 2 1 0 8 0, 0 1 3 8, 3 1 1 5, 3 0 6 2 1, 2 1 2 6, 7
1 9 9 1 1 0 4 8, 4 4 1 0 8 7, 4 1 4 0, 9 9 1 5, 4 9 6 7 7, 6 1 2 5, 1
1 9 9 2 1 0 7 2, 5 6 1 1 1 6, 4 1 4 2, 1 0 1 5, 7 9 7 5 3, 9 1 3 2, 4
1 9 9 3 1 1 1 1, 1 0 1 1 5 0, 7 1 4 5, 2 4 1 6, 7 7 8 3 9, 5 1 5 1, 8
1 9 9 4 1 1 8 7, 2 9 1 2 3 9, 9, 0 1 4 6, 0 8 1 7, 6 0 9 2 8, 1 1 6 8, 1
1 9 9 5 1 2 3 9, 4 1 1 2 9 8, 0 1 4 9, 0 0 1 7, 6 0 1 0 0 0, 0 1 8 8, 0
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
-- Macro economic and demographic indicators
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
G N P g r o w t h r a t e,%
G N P,b i l l i o n Y u a n R M B
p o p u l a t i o n,b i l l i o n
p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e,%
p o p u l a t i o n i n u r b a n,1 0
8
p o p u l a t i o n i n r u r a l,1 0
8
1 7 6 8
1, 1 4 3
3, 0 2
8, 4 1
9, 0
4 1 8 5
1, 2 9 4
1, 2 5
4, 0 6
8, 8 8
7, 5
8 6 2 5
1, 3 9 0
0, 7 2
5, 1 0
8, 8 0
6, 0
1 5 4 4 5
1, 4 5 0
0, 4 2
6, 5 0
8, 0 0
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
-- Forecast on end-energy demand and mix
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
M t c e % M t c e % M t c e % M t c e %
C o a l 3 8 9, 8 7 4 0, 9 4 4 0, 2 2 3 1, 6 4 9 7, 3 0 2 6, 5 4 8 7, 3 3 2 0, 4
O i l 5, 5 3 0, 6 0, 0 0 0, 0 0, 0 0 0, 0 0 0, 0 0 0, 0 0
N a t u r a l G a s 1 9, 8 4 2, 2 3 4, 5 5 2, 5 8 7, 9 6 3, 6 1 3 2, 0 0 5, 5
E l e c t r i c i t y 2 2 2, 9 8 2 4, 6 4 4 9, 9 5 3 2, 3 7 1 8, 0 9 3 8, 3 1 0 6 2, 4 7 4 4, 4
O i l P r o d u c t s 1 3 1, 2 6 1 4, 5 2 4 0, 1 2 1 7, 2 2 9 3, 7 8 1 5, 7 3 4 9, 3 1 4, 6
W a s h e d C o a l 1 4, 8 1 1, 6 1 5, 7 5 1, 1 1 6, 2 2 0, 9 1 5, 7 8 0, 7
C o k e 6 6, 0 4 7, 3 9 5, 5 9 6, 9 1 1 6, 8 4 6, 2 1 3 6, 0 0 5, 7
C o k e O v e n G a s 8, 6 1 1, 0 1 1, 3 2 0, 8 1 4, 4 9 0, 8 1 4, 9 6 0, 6
H e a t 3 0, 7 7 3, 4 5 7, 8 9 4, 1 9 3, 0 3 5, 0 1 3 2, 6 1 5, 6
O t h e r s 3 5, 8 1 3, 9 4 8, 9 6 3, 5 5 6, 8 1 3, 0 5 9, 5 6 2, 5
T o t a l 9 0 5, 3 4 1 0 0 1 3 9 4, 4 1 0 0 1 8 7 4, 8, 1 0 0 2 3 9 0, 0 5 1 0 0
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
--Forecast on primary energy demand and mix
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
T o t a l ( M t c e ) 9 8 7, 0 2 1 4 9 5, 2 8 2 0 0 1, 0 4 2 5 4 7, 9 1
C o a l ( M t ) 1 0 8 3, 0 0 1 4 9 1, 0 0 1 9 2 4, 0 0 2 2 5 0, 0 0
O i l ( M t ) 1 3 8, 0 0 2 0 0, 0 0 2 5 0, 7 0 3 0 0, 9 0
N a t u r a l G a s ( G m
3
) 1 5, 8 0 3 0, 0 0 6 0, 0 0 1 2 0, 0 0
H y d r o p o w e r & o t h e r s ( T W h ) 1 2 6, 2 0 2 8 8, 2 0 5 7 5, 6 0 1 0 9 4, 8 0
E n e r g y D e m a n d M i x ( % )
C o a l 7 4, 2 5 7 1, 2 3 6 8, 6 3 6 3, 0 8
O i l 1 8, 9 8 1 9, 1 7 1 7, 8 9 1 6, 8 7
N a t u r a l G a s 2, 0 1 2, 6 6 3, 9 9 6, 2 9
H y d r o p o w e r 4, 7 4 6, 4 6 7, 1 5 9, 1 8
O t h e r s 0, 0 2 0, 4 8 2, 3 4 4, 5 8
Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China
-- prediction indications
? The total primary energy consumption will increase
significantly,It will be more than doubled by 2020,
? The share of coal in end use will decrease significantly,
while still dominating the primary energy supply,
? Electricity will play a more important role in end use,
? Natural gas will increase but is limited by the supply,
? Industry will remain the major energy consumer in the
target year,while the share of residential energy
consumption will slowly increase.
Air Pollution Related to Energy Consumption
--Pollutants Emissions Over Time Horizon
at BAU Scenario
P o l l u t a n t s 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
C O
2
,M t - C
S O
2
,M t
N O
x
,M t
P M,M t
C O,M t
C H
4
,M t
6 4 7
1 6, 2 3
9, 1 1
1 1, 4 9
2 9, 1 6
7, 6 9
1 0 2 7
2 3, 8 0
1 5, 6 0
1 7, 9 9
5 0, 4 3
1 1, 0 5
1 3 6 9
3 1, 0 9
2 1, 9 2
2 4, 5 9
7 0, 4 0
1 5, 0 9
1 6 3 6
3 5, 5 2
2 8, 3 9
2 9, 6 3
8 5, 7 8
1 8, 2 9
Conclusions--
Reduction of primary energy supplies under
enhanced environmental scenarios,Mtce
2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
B
1
- B
A
B
2
- B
A
B
1
- B
A
B
2
- B
A
B
1
- B
A
B
2
- B
A
P r i m a r y e n e r g y s u p p l i e s
I n w h i c h, C o a l
H y d r o p o w e r
N u c l e a r p o w e r
B i o m a s s
- 2 3, 6 9
- 5 4, 9 7
1 9, 4 8
1 1, 8
- 2 9, 3 8
- 6 0, 6 6
1 9, 4 8
1 1, 8
- 4 2, 0 5
- 1 1 4, 5
2 6, 4 5
2 1, 4 7
2 4, 5 4
- 5 2, 2 6
- 1 5 3, 0
3 9, 6 8
3 5, 0 0
2 4, 5 4
-
6 2, 6 4
-
1 5 8, 9
2 8, 1 8
3 8, 9
2 9, 2
-
5 5, 1 2
-
2 5 7, 6
5 8, 9 3
1 1 4, 4
2 9, 2 0
I m p o r t
E x p o r t
2, 4 7
- 1, 3 5
2, 3 8
- 0, 8 8
2, 5 0
- 0, 0 8
1, 9 8
- 0, 3 9
1, 9 7
- 0, 7 6
- 4, 8 6
- 0, 8 8
S u p p l y o f p r i m a r y - 2 2, 5 7 - 2 7, 8 9 - 3 9, 6 4 - 5 2, 2 6 -
6 5, 3 8
-
6 0, 8 6
N o t e, S y m b o l, -, i n d i c a t e s e n e r g y a m o u n t r e d u c e d,
B
A
,B
1
,B
2
r e p r e s e n t s B A U,s c e n a r i o I a n d I I,r e s p e c t i v e l y,
Conclusions--
Reduction of Pollutant Emissions for Enhanced
Scenario I and II over BAU
2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
B
A
B
1
B
2
B
A
B
1
B
2
B
A
B
1
B
2
C O
2
E m i s s, ( M t C )
R e d u c t, ( M t C )
R a t e ( % )
1 0 2 6 9 8 2
4 4, 7
4, 3 6
9 8 2
4 4, 2
4, 3 0
1 3 6 9 1 2 8 0
8 9, 2
6, 5 1
1 2 5 4
1 1 5
8, 3 9
1 6 3 5 1 4 9 6
1 3 9
8, 5 0
1 4 2 6
2 0 9
1 2, 8 1
C O
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
5 0, 4 3 4 8, 3 7
2, 0 6
4, 0 8
4 7, 3 3
3, 1 0
6, 1 5
7 0, 4 0 6 6, 5 6
3, 8 4
5, 4 5
6 5, 4 1
4, 9 9
7, 0 9
8 5, 7 8 8 1, 1 2
4, 6 6
5, 4 3
7 9, 6 3
6, 1 5
7, 1 7
N O
X
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
1 5, 6 0 1 5, 1 4
0, 4 6
2, 9 5
1 5, 2 2
0, 3 8
2, 4 4
2 1, 9 2 2 0, 9 6
0, 9 6
4, 3 8
2 0, 6 1
1, 3 1
5, 9 8
2 8, 3 9 2 6, 4 0
1, 9 9
7, 0 1
2 5, 2 4
3, 1 5
1 1, 1 0
S O
2
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
2 3, 8 0 2 0, 8 4
2, 9 6
1 2, 4 4
2 0, 4 5
3, 3 5
1 4, 0 8
3 1, 0 9 2 5, 0 2
6, 0 7
1 9, 5 2
2 3, 5 2
7, 5 7
2 4, 3 5
3 5, 5 2 2 5, 8 6
9, 6 6
2 7, 1 9
2 2, 7 4
1 2, 7 8
3 5, 9 8
P M
E m i s s, ( M t )
R e d u c t, ( M t )
R a t e ( % )
1 7, 9 9 1 6, 2 9
1, 7 0
9, 4 5
1 6, 3 2
1, 6 7
9, 2 8
2 4, 5 9 2 1, 0 8
3, 5 1
1 4, 2 7
2 0, 3 1
4, 2 8
1 7, 4 1
2 9, 6 3 2 3, 5 6
6, 0 7
2 0, 4 8
2 1, 3 7
8, 2 6
2 7, 8 8
Energy Production and Consumption in China
--Energy production and consumption
locate unevenly
T h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s a n d E c o n o m i c f o r 1 9 9 0,%
N o r t h e r n
C h i n a
N o r t h
e a s t
E a s t e r n
C h i n a
C e n t r a l
s o u t h
S o u t h
w e s t
N o r t h
w e s t
T o t a l r e s o u r c e s
c o a l
h y d r o p o w e r
o i l a n d
n a t u r a l g a s
3 2, 3
4 3, 2
1, 2
1 0, 0
5, 9
5, 8
2, 0
4 7, 8
9, 6
1 1, 4
3, 6
1 8, 4
8, 5
6, 2
1 5, 5
8, 0
2 3, 7
9, 9
6 7, 8
4, 7
2 0, 0
2 3, 6
9, 9
1 1, 1
G N P 1 3, 6 1 1 3, 5 2 3 4, 0 6 2 2, 8 6 1 0, 1 0 5, 8 5
T o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n
c o a l
e l e c t r i c i t y
1 9, 6 1
2 0, 4 7
1 7, 3 0
1 8, 2 7
1 7, 0 9
1 4, 5 4
2 5, 4 0
2 8, 1 1
2 9, 3 5
1 7, 9 6
1 6, 6 1
2 1, 2 0
1 1, 7 0
1 1, 3 5
9, 3 1
7, 0 6
6, 3 8
8, 3 2
Conclusions
With the inclusion of above actions and options,what
would happen under enhanced scenarios,compared with
business-as-usual,is revealed below:
? Changing mix of primary energy supply
? Reducing the demand of primary energy
? Mitigating emissions of various pollutants
Conclusions
The development strategy for sustainable development of
energy and environmental protection includes,
? implementing comprehensive planning of energy,which
incorporating environmental considerations;
? improving energy efficiency and conservation;
? diversifying energy supplies into non-coal sources;
? investing in industrial air pollution control.
MODELING INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN
CHINA POWER SECTOR AND IMPLICATIONS
OF SINO-US CARBON TRADING
(优化模型 )
The Goal of This
Research
? Determine the most cost effective investment strategy for the
required additional capacity to meet the increasing electricity
demand of China
? Investigate the impacts of the growing electric power sector
on the environment
? Identify the impact of economic policies and environmental
regulations on the future technology choices
? Analyze the technological options available to China to
reduce pollution
? Explore the possibility for US-China Carbon trading
Coal
washing
Electricity
demands
regionwide &
nationwide
HH-coal
MH-coal
LH-coal
HL-coal
ML-coal
LL-coal
Rail
Road
Ship
Rail & ship
Raw coal
Rail
Pipeline
Ship
Rail & ship
Crude oil
Natural gas
wires
Transmitted
inter-regionally
Renewable Reserves
Parameters,
Economic
Technical
Environmental
Social
Emissions cap
Emissions
transfer limit
Sulfur deposit
Fuel
mining
cost
+
Coal
washing
cost
+
Fuel
transport
cost
+
Electricity
generation &
transmission
cost
Minimum
Oil & gas import
Parameter descriptions
16 technologies,
? DOMSML,Unit capacity?100MW
? DOMMED,100--200 MW
? DOMESP,?300MW with ESP
? DOMSCB,?300MW with scrubber
? DOMBIG,200--300 MW with ESP
? AFBC,foreign atmospheric fluidized bed
? IGCC,integrated gasification combined cycle
? PFBC,Pressurized FBC
? OILREG,oil fired traditional unit
? Oilcc,oil fired combined cycle
? GASCC,gas turbine combined cycle
? NUCLEAR,nuclear power
? HYDRO,hydroelectric power
? WIND,PV,Geothermal power
Six types of coal
? HHCOAL:
[S] ?3%,[ash] ?20%
? MHCOAL:
[S]=1-3%,[ash] ?20%
? LHCOAL:
[S]?1%,[ash] ?20%
? HLCOAL:
[S] ?1%,[ash]?20%
? MLCOAL:
[S] =1-3%%,[ash] ?20%
? LLCOAL:
[S] ?1%,[ash] ?20%
Six Region Presentation of China
N o r t h e a s t
E a s t
S o u t h w e s t
S o u t h c e n t r a l
N o r t h w e s t N o r t h
Model Constraints
? Demand constraints to meet electricity demand in each
time period and region
? Fuel supply constraints
? Transportation capacity and transmission restrictions
? Electricity generation constraints based on conversion
efficiencies and capacity factors of technologies
? Environmental constraints (limits on SO2 emissions,
sulfur depositions,and CO2 targets)
L evel i z e d c o st ca l cu l at i o n t o ge n er at e 1 K W h i n E A r eg i o n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DOM DOM DOM DOM DOM AF B C P F B C I GC C GA S OI L OI L HYD NUC L W I ND GT PV
E S P S C B M E D B I G S M L CC CC R E G RO E A R
C a p i t a l,$/KW 607 658 650 625 676 850 1125 1150 800 600 530 900 1350 1000 3000 4500
C o n s t r uc t i o n pe r i o d,y e a r 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 1 2 8 7 1 1 2
e c o n o m i c li f e,y e a r 30 30 30 30 20 30 30 30 20 20 20 50 30 20 15 30
Ann ua l ge n e r a t i o n h o ur s 6500 6500 6000 6500 5500 6500 6500 6500 6000 6000 5500 4000 7000 3000 5700 2500
D i s c o un t e d r a t e,% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
I n t e r e s t f a c t o r 3,31 3,31 3,31 3,31 2,10 3,31 3,31 3,31 1,00 1,00 2,10 11,44 9,49 1,00 1,10 2,10
L e v e li z e d c a p i t a l,$/ KW 71,04 77,01 76,08 73,15 83,37 99,48 131,67 134,60 93,97 70,48 65,37 129,81 194,15 117,46 433,86 501,22
L e v e li z e d c a p i t a l,c e n t /KWh 1,093 1,185 1,268 1,125 1,516 1,531 2,026 2,071 1,566 1,175 1,188 3,245 2,774 3,915 7,612 20,049
E f f i c i e n c y,% 36,0 35,5 33,5 34,5 26,5 37,5 39,5 39,5 40,0 40,0 35,0 33,0
F ue l c o n s u m p.,kgc e /KWh 0,341 0,346 0,367 0,356 0,464 0,328 0,311 0,311 0,307 0,307 0,351 0,372
F ue l u s e,kg or m
3
/KWh 0,478 0,485 0,514 0,499 0,649 0,459 0,436 0,436 0,231 0,215 0,246 0,0038
F ue l pr i c e,c e n t /kg o r m
3
1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 9,00 10,84 10,8 630
F ue l c o s t,c e n t /K W h 0,72 0,73 0,77 0,75 0,97 0,69 0,65 0,65 2,08 2,33 2,65 2,39
T r a n s po r t c o s t,c e n t /kg 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,75 0 0 0
F ue l pr i c e 1,c e n t /kg o r m
3 (1 )
3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 3,25 9,00 10,84 10,80 0,00 630 0,00 0,00 0,00
F ue l c o s t 1,c e n t /K W h
(2 )
1,55 1,58 1,67 1,62 2,11 1,49 1,42 1,42 2,08 2,33 2,65 0,00 2,39 0,00 0,00 0,00
Va r i a bl e c o s t,c e n t /KWh 0,35 0,72 0,40 0,36 0,50 0,45 0,45 0,45 0,40 0,28 0,28 0,10 0,40 0,20 0,01 0,01
F i xe d c o s t,c e n t /K W h 0,28 0,30 0,33 0,29 0,37 0,39 0,52 0,53 0,40 0,30 0,29 0,34 0,58 0,50 0,79 2,70
L e v e li z e d c o s t,c e n t /KWh
(3 )
2,440 2,936 2,763 2,522 3,061 3,648 3,705 4,445 4,086 4,412 3,683 6,146 4,615 8,406 22,756
L e v e li z e d c o s t 1,c e n t /KWh
(4 )
3,276 3,784 3,662 3,395 4,495 3,864 4,411 4,467 4,445 4,086 4,412 3,683 6,146 4,615 8,406 22,756
T r a n s mi s s i o n c o s t,c e n t /KWh T r a n s mi s s i o n c o s t o f 1 KW h f r o m NO to E A i s a b o ut 1, 373 c e n t s,
N o t e,(1 )Fu el p ri ce 1 i s d e f i n ed as t h e f u e l p ri ce i n E as t,w h i ch e q u al s t o f u e l p ri c e i n N o rt h p l u s t ran s p o rt at i o n c o s t fro m N o rt h t o E as t
(2 )Fu el co s t 1 e q u al s fu el u s e ( k g o r m
3
/ k w h ) mu l t i p l i e d b y fu el p ri ce 1 ( ce n t / k g o r m
3
)
(3 )L ev e l i z e d c o s t i s t h e s u m o f l ev e l i z e d c ap i t al,fu el co s t,v ari ab l e co s t an d f i x ed c o s t
(4 )L ev e l i z e d c o s t i s t h e s u m o f l ev e l i z e d c ap i t al,fu el co s t 1,v ari ab l e c o s t an d fi x e d co s t
How the model works
L e v e l i z e d c o s t o f e l e c t r i c p o w e r
0, 0
1, 0
2, 0
3, 0
4, 0
5, 0
6, 0
7, 0
8, 0
9, 0
T e c h n o l o g y
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How the model works
R ESU LT S OF T H E POW ER
SEC T OR M OD EL
D e v e l o p e d b y, H a r v a r d Uni v e r s i ty
Case2 Case3 Case4 Case5
Case1 Case1.1 Case1.2 Case1.3
Unrealistic cases
Realistic cases
Base case With SO2constraints
With SO2
& CO2
constraints
With SO2
constraints +
carbon tax
$25/tC
Ca pa city o f ea ch t echno lo g y in yea r 20 2 0 ( GW)
C a se 1 C a se 1.1 C a se 1.2 C a se 1.3
AF B C 0 0 0 0
DOMB I G 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6
DOMES P 507.04 403.45 408.72 404.25
DOMM ED 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95
DOMS C B 0.72 102.31 46.79 102.02
DOMS ML 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14
GASC C 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23
GT 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
HYDRO 57.4 57.4 138.46 57.4
I GCC 0 0 0 0
NUCL EAR 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
OI L C C 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
OI L R EG 0 0 0 0
P F B C 0 0 0 0
PV 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
W I ND 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Total 645.38 643.38 674.2 643.9
Unrealistic Cases
C as e 1 C as e 1,1 C as e 1,2 C as e 1,3
C o al 9 3,7 9 9 3,4 3 8 5,3 2 9 3,4 0
O il 0,0 8 0,4 3 0,4 6 0,4 6
G as 0,0 3 0,0 3 0,0 3 0,0 3
H y d ro 5,7 3 5,7 3 1 3,8 1 5,7 3
N u cle ar 0,3 7 0,3 7 0,3 7 0,3 7
Unrealistic cases
Percentage of electricity generation by technologies
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5
Coal 93,79 76,90 75,05 71,66 75,61
Oil 0.0 8 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.2 4 1.2 4
Gas 0.0 3 1.5 8 2.2 1 4.0 4 1.6 6
Hyd ro 5.7 3 19,02 20,24 20,09 20,24
Oth ers 0.0 0 0.8 8 0.8 8 1.6 5 0.8 8
Nucle ar 0.3 7 0.3 7 0.3 7 1.3 3 0.3 7
Mix of electricity generation
for 5 cases in 2020
Ca se 1 Ca se 2 Ca se 3 Ca se 4 Ca se 5
1995 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 2.57
2000 2.50 3.96 4.80 6.02 5.01
2005 2.51 3.74 3.82 7.44 4.13
2010 2.51 4.72 4.91 23.07 5.01
2015 2.51 4.76 5.46 28.37 5.50
2020 2.51 4.74 5.50 14.66 5.58
National electricity generation price
for realistic cases (US cent/kwh)
M a r g i n a l C o s t o f C a r b o n
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1, 7 1, 8 1, 9 2, 0 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4
C o n s t r a i n e d 2 0 1 0 E m i s s i o n s / 1 9 9 5 E m i s s i o n s
M
C
o
f
C
(
$
/
t
C
)
Marginal Cost of Carbon in Power Sector
for the Realistic Base Case
C a r b o n Em i s s i o n s fr o m C h i n e s e Po w e r I n d u s tr y u n d e r d i ffe r e n t U S-
C h i n a C a r b o n T r a d i n g Sc e n a r i o s (C a s e 2 )
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
y e a r
M
tC
B A U
U S b u y s 1 6, 1 M t C a t $ 1 4, 1 5 / t C
U S b u y s 4 3, 4 M t C a t $ 2 2 4, 9 5 / t C
U S b u y s 9 0 M t C a t $ 2 3 1, 6 4 / t C
? The nonlinear optimization model that has a user-friendly graphical
interface can be used as a decision support tool by policy-makers
? Given that coal is China’s dominant energy source,existing policies
discourage the expansion of gas- and oil-fired power,long-distance
transportation of coal for power still keep competitive,and electricity
transmission from SW to SC is economically attractive,Even China’s
power industry makes a big progress in improvement of efficiency and
coal quality,it continuously will face huge pressures stemming from the
requirements of SO2 and CO2 emissions reduction
? Traditional CCTs,such as coal washing,scrubber and AFBC,will play
a key role to meet the target of SO reductions addressed by
government,However,this requires the formulation of three center,
coal washing in NO,scrubber in EA and hydroelectric power in SW
(no new coal-fired power).
Conclusions and Recommendations
