State of World Population 2004
世界人口状况,2004
Some key facts
? 2.8 billion people—two in five--still
struggle to survive on less than $2 a day.
? In 2000,1.1 billion people did not have
reasonable access to safe drinking water.
? World population will increase from 6.4
billion today to 8.9 billion by 2050.
? By 2050,the 50 poorest countries will triple
in size to 1.7 billion people.
? The number of people in cities will rise
from 3 billion in 2003 to 5 billion in 2030.
? 38 million people are living with
HIV/AIDS
Some key facts
? Modern contraceptive use prevents 187
million unintended pregnancies a year.
? 529,000 women a year,or one every
minute,die from complications of
pregnancy.
? 70,000 women a year die from unsafe
abortions
Some key facts
有关的人口网站
? http://www.unfpa.org 联合国人口基金会
? http://www.infoplease.com/world.html
? http://www.unhabitat.org/ 联合国人居中心
? http://www.popcouncil.org 美国人口协会
? http://www.gdpic.gov.cn/ 广东省人口与计划生育网
? http://www.cpirc.org.cn/ 中国人口信息研究中心
? http://www.chinapop.gov.cn/ 中国人口
? POPULATION AND POVERTY
? POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT
? MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
? GENDER EQUALITY AND WOMEN’S
EMPOWERMENT
? REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND FAMILY
PLANNING
? MATERNAL HEALTH
? PREVENTING HIV/AIDS
? ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG PEOPLE
? REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH FOR
COMMUNITIES IN CRISIS
? ACTION PRIORITIES
POPULATION AND POVERTY
? Enabling people to have fewer children,if
they want to,helps to stimulate
development and reduce poverty.
? Smaller families share income among
fewer people and average income per capita
increases.
? Fewer pregnancies lead to lower maternal
mortality and morbidity and often to more
education and economic opportunities for
women.
? Families with lower fertility are better able
to invest in the health and education of each
child.
? Falling fertility opens a ―demographic
window‖ of economic opportunity,
– With fewer dependent children relative to the
working age population,countries can make
additional investments that can spur economic
growth and help reduce poverty.
POPULATION AND POVERTY
? The HIV/AIDS pandemic is killing large
numbers of people in their most productive
years,increasing the ratio of dependents to
working age populations.
? In some sub-Saharan African countries,one
quarter of the workforce is infected with HIV.
– If 15 per cent of a country’s population is HIV
positive (a level nine countries are expected to
reach by 2010),gross domestic product declines
by about 1 per cent each year
POPULATION AND POVERTY
POPULATION AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
? Ten years after the Cairo conference,there is
much greater recognition that good
stewardship of the environment,people’s
health and the status of women are all
interconnected.
? There has been greater international attention
to women’s stewardship of natural resources,
including efforts to integrate reproductive
health and family planning into conservation
programs.
? The ecological ―footprint‖ of an average
person in a high-income country is about six
times bigger than that of someone in a low-
income country.
? A rapidly growing consumer class of around
1.7 billion people accounts for the vast
majority of meat eating,paper use,car driving
and energy use,
? 2.8 billion people—two in five—struggle to
survive on less than $2 a day.
POPULATION AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
? In 2000,1.1 billion people did not have
reasonable access to safe drinking water.
? 2.4 billion people worldwide live without
basic sanitation,
? Lack of access to clean water and sanitation
led to 1.7 million deaths in 2000.
POPULATION AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
? As a result of rising incomes,urbanization
and smaller families,the average number of
people living under one roof declined
between 1970 and 2000—from 5.1 to 4.4 in
developing countries and from 3.2 to 2.5 in
industrial countries,while the total of
households increased,
– With fewer people in each household,savings
from shared use of energy are lost
POPULATION AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
? By 2007,for the first time in human
history,more than half the people in
the world will be living in cities,
– The number of urban dwellers will rise
from 3 billion in 2003 (48 per cent of the
total population) to 5 billion in 2030 (60
per cent).
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Ave,pop,growth
rate (%) (2000-2005)
% urban (2003) Urban growth rate
(2000-2005)
Total fertility rate
(2000-2005)
World Total More developed regions (*)
Less developed regions (+)
Least developed countries (?)
? Today there are 20 cities of more than 10
million people (15 in developing countries),
containing 4 per cent of the global
population,By 2015,there will be 22 such
mega-cities (16 in developing countries)
? Greater attention will have to be given to
the needs of the urban poor,whose access to
health and other services is far worse than
that of richer city dwellers
MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
? During the past decade,migration has
increased,both within and between
countries,and the phenomenon has
grown in political importance.
? People move within countries in
response to inequitable distribution of
resources,services and opportunities.
MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
? In 2000 there were 175 million
international migrants,up from 79
million in 1960,Nearly 50 per cent
were women and 10.4 million were
refugees.
? Migration of younger workers has left
behind those too old for physical work
in agriculture,
MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
? Heightened concerns about terrorism
have prompted many countries to
enhance border security,leading to
increased illegal migration,particularly
through smuggling and trafficking
MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
GENDER EQUALITY AND
WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
? The 1990s was an outstanding decade for
bringing issues of reproductive health and
rights and violence against women to the
center of global and national debates.
? UNFPA’s global survey of national progress
presents a mixed picture,A number of
countries have introduced laws and policies
but less has been done to implement and
monitor them.
? About half of countries surveyed developed
plans and strategies for women,but only 28
countries increased women’s political
participation.
? 91 countries had laws in place to counter
violence against women,but only 21
actually enforced them.
GENDER EQUALITY AND
WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
? 42 countries were able to increase
public spending on schools and 28
provided incentives for poor families
to send children to school.
? 20 countries reported developing youth and
adolescent reproductive health education
programs.
GENDER EQUALITY AND
WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
? When a vocal national women’s movement
can advocate for needed programs,policies
and resources,forward movement can be
quick,However,even in situations where
the women’s movement is not strong,
political leadership can play an important
role in advocating for gender equality.
GENDER EQUALITY AND
WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
? Since 1994,46 countries have enacted new
laws and legislation to expand access to
reproductive health care and to ensure that
pregnant women and adolescents are not
discriminated against in school or
employment.
? At a cost of about $7.1 billion a year,
modern contraceptive use currently prevents
annually,
– 187 million unintended pregnancies,
– 60 million unplanned births,
– 105 million induced abortions;
– 2.7 million infant deaths;
– 215,000 pregnancy-related deaths
– and 685,000 children losing their mothers due
to pregnancy-related deaths,
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
? Some 201 million women have an unmet need for
effective contraception,
– Meeting their needs,for an annual cost of $3.9 billion,
would avert or delay some 52 million pregnancies a year,
? Since 1994,family planning use has increased from
55 percent of married couples to around 61 per cent,
– However,may countries,particularly the poor,still have
constricted contraceptive access and choice.
? When China is left out of the calculation,only 46
per cent of married women in Asia are using
contraception.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
? Barriers to contraceptive use include,lack
of accessible services; shortages of
commodities,equipment and personnel;
lack of appropriate method choices; lack of
knowledge; poor client-provider interaction;
lack of community or spousal support;
misinformation; side-effects for some; and
financial constraints.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
? Some 340 million new cases of sexually
transmitted infections (STIs) occur annually
in people aged 15-49,
– Untreated STIs are a leading cause of infertility,
which affects 60 to 80 million couples
worldwide.
? More than three quarters of the 5 million
new cases of HIV infection every year are
sexually transmitted.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
? Providing STI screening,diagnosis and
treatment as part of reproductive health care
can reach millions of women,many of
whom have no other contact with the health
care system.
? Since 1994,donor support for reproductive
health supplies,including condoms and
other contraceptives,has declined,creating
a growing gap between need and supplies.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
? Between 2000 and 2015,contraceptive
users in developing countries are expected
to increase by 40 per cent.
? Each $1 million shortfall in contraceptive
assistance will result in an estimated,
– 360,000 unintended pregnancies,
– 150,000 induced abortions,
– 800 maternal deaths,
– 11,000 infant deaths,
– 14,000 deaths of children under five.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND
FAMILY PLANNING
MATERNAL HEALTH
? Obstetric complications are the leading
cause of death of women of reproductive
age in developing countries,
? The number of deaths per year—529,000,
or one every minute—has not changed
significantly since the ICPD.
? Broad agreement now exists among health
professionals and policy makers that most
maternal deaths stem from problems that are
hard to detect but are almost always treatable
with better access to skilled attendance at
delivery and quality emergency obstetric care.
MATERNAL HEALTH
? Just 35 per cent of deliveries in South Asia
were assisted by a skilled attendant in 2000;
in sub-Saharan Africa it was 41 percent,up
from one third in 1985.
? Obstetric fistula affects more than 2 million
women and girls worldwide,with an
estimated 50,000 to 100,000 new cases
annually,
MATERNAL HEALTH
? Satisfying the existing unmet need for
contraception would reduce pregnancy
worldwide,causing maternal mortality to drop
by 25-35 per cent.
? The number of pregnant women receiving
antenatal care from a skilled health provider
has grown 20 per cent since 1990,
– More than half of all women in the developing
world now receive at least four antenatal visits
during pregnancy.
MATERNAL HEALTH
? About 19 million of the estimated 45 million
induced abortions performed annually are
unsafe,
– Nearly 70,000 women die as a result,
representing 13 per cent of pregnancy-related
deaths,
– At least 40 countries have initiated post-abortion
care programs since the ICPD.
MATERNAL HEALTH
PREVENTING HIV/AIDS
? Over two decades into the AIDS pandemic,
some 38 million people are living with
AIDS and over 20 million have died.
? Some 5 million new infections occur every
year.
? Linking HIV and reproductive health
services is crucial,as more than three
fourths of HIV cases are transmitted
sexually and an additional 10 per cent from
mothers to children during labor,delivery or
breastfeeding,
PREVENTING HIV/AIDS
? In Africa today,young women are 1.3 times
more likely than men to be infected with
HIV.
? Fewer than one in five people at high risk of
HIV infection have access to proven
prevention interventions,
– Scaling up preventive strategies could avert 29
million of the 45 million new HIV infections
expected by 2010.
PREVENTING HIV/AIDS
? The vast majority of infected people still do not
have access to antiretroviral therapy,
– In Africa in 2003,only 100,000 of the 4.4 million
people needing treatment were receiving ARVs,
? The AIDS pandemic is becoming ―feminized.‖
Half of adults living with HIV/AIDS are female,
compared to 41 per cent in 1997.
– In sub-Saharan Africa,the figure is nearly 60 per
cent.
PREVENTING HIV/AIDS
ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG
PEOPLE
? Recently,countries have made significant
progress in addressing the often sensitive
needs of adolescent reproductive health,
including education and services to enable
young people to avoid unwanted pregnancy
and infection.
? One person in five—1.3 billion—is an
adolescent,part of the largest youth
generation in history,Half are poor,and one
fourth live on less than $1 a day.
? 7 per cent of young people 15-24 live in the
developing world.
? Young people account for half of all new HIV
infections,2.5 million a year.
? One woman in three in developing countries
gives birth before age 20,ranging from 8 per
cent in East Asia to 55 per cent in West Africa.
? Pregnancy is a leading cause of death for
women aged 15-19.
ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG
PEOPLE
? Mothers aged 15-19 are twice as likely to
die in childbirth as those in their 20s,and
girls under age 15 are five times as likely to
die as women in their 20s.
? 82 million girls in developing countries
who are now between the ages of 10 and 17
will be married before their 18th birthday.
ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG
PEOPLE
? Many good but relatively small-scale youth-
oriented programs have been started since
the ICPD,These programs need to be scaled
up and the participation of youth
institutionalized in the program and policy
development process.
ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG
PEOPLE
? One of the most significant achievements
since the ICPD has been increased attention
to the reproductive health needs of
populations affected by armed conflict or
natural disaster.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
FOR COMMUNITIES IN CRISIS
? Women of reproductive age are about 25
per cent of the tens of millions of refugees
and persons internally displaced by war,
famine,persecution or natural disaster.
– One in five of these women is likely to be
pregnant.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
FOR COMMUNITIES IN CRISIS
? While international funding for reproductive
health needs in emergencies has increased
since 1994,the number of people requiring
these services has grown faster than related
assistance,
– More than half the countries in Africa have
been affected by crisis during the past decade.
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
FOR COMMUNITIES IN CRISIS
? Failure to provide for the reproductive health
needs of populations affected by crisis,
especially in the age of AIDS,can have tragic
consequences for individuals and undermine
an entire nation’s stability
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
FOR COMMUNITIES IN CRISIS
ACTION PRIORITIES
? The annual cost of the ICPD Program
of Action was estimated
– $17.1 billion in 2000,
– increasing to $18.5 billion in 2005,
– $20.5 billion in 2010
– $21.7 billion in 2015.
?
? Developing countries committed to
mobilize two thirds of the requirements
from domestic resources and donor
countries agreed to provide
international assistance for one third of
the total.
ACTION PRIORITIES
? Donors in 2003 contributed about $3.1
billion,rather than the $6.1 billion a year
they pledged by 2005.
? Developing country domestic expenditures
for the package in 2003 were $11.7 billion.
– However,a large portion of this outlay comes
from a few large countries.
– The poorest countries rely on donor funding
for their family planning,reproductive health,
and HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment
programs,
ACTION PRIORITIES
? Donors today supply much less than their
historical share of contraceptive commodity
costs,
– In the early 1990s,donors provided 41 per cent
of commodity requirements,about twice what
they provide today.
ACTION PRIORITIES
? To meet the ICPD targets,resources from
donors and national allocation must be
significantly increased and used more
effectively,
? To attain the Millennium Development Goals
and the goals of the ICPD,past commitments to
development assistance must move from
declarations of good intentions to active
partnerships and investments.
ACTION PRIORITIES
Globally,from 2001 to 2003,the number
of people living with HIV/AIDS continued
to rise,from 35 million to 38 million.
The gap is wide in infant mortality,
150 infant deaths per 1,000 births in
Liberia,to 3 per 1,000 in Finland.
? Around the World,Birth Rates Range
Dramatically From 1.2 to 8 Children per
Woman
In Rwanda,only 4 percent of women
practice a modern method of family
planning,while at least 70 percent do in
Brazil.
Across World Regions,Contrasting Age
Structure Will Lead to Sharply Different
Demographic Futures.( 2004)
All World Regions Except Europe Will
Continue to Grow,
The World.s 10
Largest Countries