Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 1
Testing for Unit Roots
Consider an AR(1),yt = a + ryt-1 + et
Let H0,r = 1,(assume there is a unit root)
Define q = r – 1 and subtract yt-1 from both
sides to obtain Dyt = a + qyt-1 + et
Unfortunately,a simple t-test is
inappropriate,since this is an I(1) process
A Dickey-Fuller Test uses the t-statistic,
but different critical values
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 2
Testing for Unit Roots (cont)
We can add p lags of Dyt to allow for more
dynamics in the process
Still want to calculate the t-statistic for q
Now it’s called an augmented Dickey-
Fuller test,but still the same critical values
The lags are intended to clear up any serial
correlation,if too few,test won’t be right
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 3
Testing for Unit Roots w/ Trends
If a series is clearly trending,then we need
to adjust for that or might mistake a trend
stationary series for one with a unit root
Can just add a trend to the model
Still looking at the t-statistic for q,but the
critical values for the Dickey-Fuller test
change
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 4
Spurious Regression
Consider running a simple regression of yt
on xt where yt and xt are independent I(1)
series
The usual OLS t-statistic will often be
statistically significant,indicating a
relationship where there is none
Called the spurious regression problem
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 5
Cointegration
Say for two I(1) processes,yt and xt,there
is a b such that yt – bxt is an I(0) process
If so,we say that y and x are cointegrated,
and call b the cointegration parameter
If we know b,testing for cointegration is
straightforward if we define st = yt – bxt
Do Dickey-Fuller test and if we reject a
unit root,then they are cointegrated
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 6
Cointegration (continued)
If b is unknown,then we first have to
estimate b,which adds a complication
After estimating b we run a regression of
D?t on ?t-1 and compare t-statistic on ?t-1
with the special critical values
If there are trends,need to add it to the
initial regression that estimates b and use
different critical values for t-statistic on ?t-1
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 7
Forecasting
Once we’ve run a time-series regression we
can use it for forecasting into the future
Can calculate a point forecast and forecast
interval in the same way we got a prediction
and prediction interval with a cross-section
Rather than use in-sample criteria like
adjusted R2,often want to use out-of-sample
criteria to judge how good the forecast is
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 8
Out-of-Sample Criteria
Idea is to note use all of the data in
estimating the equation,but to save some
for evaluating how well the model forecasts
Let total number of observations be n + m
and use n of them for estimating the model
Use the model to predict the next m
observations,and calculate the difference
between your prediction and the truth
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 9
Out-of-Sample Criteria (cont)
Call this difference the forecast error,
which is ên+h+1 for h = 0,1,…,m
Calculate the root mean square error
(RMSE)
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 10
Out-of-Sample Criteria (cont)
Call this difference the forecast error,
which is ên+h+1 for h = 0,1,…,m
Calculate the root mean square error and
see which model has the smallest,where
21
1
0
2
1
1 ? ?
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m
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hnemR MS E
Testing for Unit Roots
Consider an AR(1),yt = a + ryt-1 + et
Let H0,r = 1,(assume there is a unit root)
Define q = r – 1 and subtract yt-1 from both
sides to obtain Dyt = a + qyt-1 + et
Unfortunately,a simple t-test is
inappropriate,since this is an I(1) process
A Dickey-Fuller Test uses the t-statistic,
but different critical values
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 2
Testing for Unit Roots (cont)
We can add p lags of Dyt to allow for more
dynamics in the process
Still want to calculate the t-statistic for q
Now it’s called an augmented Dickey-
Fuller test,but still the same critical values
The lags are intended to clear up any serial
correlation,if too few,test won’t be right
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 3
Testing for Unit Roots w/ Trends
If a series is clearly trending,then we need
to adjust for that or might mistake a trend
stationary series for one with a unit root
Can just add a trend to the model
Still looking at the t-statistic for q,but the
critical values for the Dickey-Fuller test
change
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 4
Spurious Regression
Consider running a simple regression of yt
on xt where yt and xt are independent I(1)
series
The usual OLS t-statistic will often be
statistically significant,indicating a
relationship where there is none
Called the spurious regression problem
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 5
Cointegration
Say for two I(1) processes,yt and xt,there
is a b such that yt – bxt is an I(0) process
If so,we say that y and x are cointegrated,
and call b the cointegration parameter
If we know b,testing for cointegration is
straightforward if we define st = yt – bxt
Do Dickey-Fuller test and if we reject a
unit root,then they are cointegrated
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 6
Cointegration (continued)
If b is unknown,then we first have to
estimate b,which adds a complication
After estimating b we run a regression of
D?t on ?t-1 and compare t-statistic on ?t-1
with the special critical values
If there are trends,need to add it to the
initial regression that estimates b and use
different critical values for t-statistic on ?t-1
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 7
Forecasting
Once we’ve run a time-series regression we
can use it for forecasting into the future
Can calculate a point forecast and forecast
interval in the same way we got a prediction
and prediction interval with a cross-section
Rather than use in-sample criteria like
adjusted R2,often want to use out-of-sample
criteria to judge how good the forecast is
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 8
Out-of-Sample Criteria
Idea is to note use all of the data in
estimating the equation,but to save some
for evaluating how well the model forecasts
Let total number of observations be n + m
and use n of them for estimating the model
Use the model to predict the next m
observations,and calculate the difference
between your prediction and the truth
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 9
Out-of-Sample Criteria (cont)
Call this difference the forecast error,
which is ên+h+1 for h = 0,1,…,m
Calculate the root mean square error
(RMSE)
Economics 20 - Prof,Anderson 10
Out-of-Sample Criteria (cont)
Call this difference the forecast error,
which is ên+h+1 for h = 0,1,…,m
Calculate the root mean square error and
see which model has the smallest,where
21
1
0
2
1
1 ? ?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
?
?
??
?
m
h
hnemR MS E
