全 球 气 候 系 统
Global Climate System
人类活动的气候影响
什么是温室效应?
地球大气中有哪些温室气体?
温室气体从何处来?
温室效应很不好,是吗?
近百年的气候变化有多少是温室效应造成的?
如果 CO2加倍全球温度会上升多少?
21世纪气候会怎样?
不确定性有多大? (有关全球变暖的争论 )
地球大气中有哪些温室气体?
温室气体从何处来?
Halocarbons are carbon-based compounds that contain
chlorine,fluorine,bromine,or iodine,
The CFC's,halons (bromine- containing CFC's),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),chloroform (CHCl3) and
carbon tertrachloride (CCl4) are exclusively of
industrial origin and did not exist prior to 60 years ago.
Halocarbons are responsible for the environmental problem of
stratospheric ozone depletion and several of the compounds are
strong greenhouse gases,
CFC's are far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2 but are
10,000 times more powerful as greenhouse gases,
Proportion of CFC's has declined since banning of their use in
1984.
Annual global emissions of the halocarbons CFC-11 (filled black squares)
and CFC-12 (open squares) to the atmosphere from 1972 to 1992,
principally from their use as refrigerants and agents for the blowing of
foam,Notice the decline in emissions following enactment of the
Montreal Protocol in 1987,(After World Meteorological Organization,
1994).
Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide,Atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration in parts per million (ppm) as recorded
at five sites (data from Bradley and Jones,1995).
温室效应很可怕,是吗?
近百年的气候变化有多少是温室效应造成的?
气候系统对各种强迫的敏感性的不确定性
2xCO2 ~ 4W/m2
~ 1.2 C (without feed-backs)
actual value = ~3 C (1.5-4.5C)
21世纪气候会怎样?
1000 1100 1200 1300 1 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 6 0 0 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
0
2
4
6
观 测
重 建
预 测
平 均 3,6 C
o
( )年
度
温
/
C
o
是祸还是福?
何种对策?
全球变暖的有关争论
Table 1,Key Differences with Skeptics
1,Observed global warming,real or measurement problem?
Hansen,global warming is 0.5-0.75°C in past century,at least
~0.3°C in past 25 years.
Lindzen,since about 1850 "...more likely,.,0.1±0.3°C" (MIT
Tech Talk,34,#7,1989),
2,Climate sensitivity (equilibrium response to 2xCO2)
Lindzen,~< 1°C
Hansen,3±1°C
Comments,paleoclimate data,improved climate models,and
process studies may narrow uncertainties; observed climate
change on decadal time scales will provide constraint if
climate forcings are measured; implicit information on climate
sensitivity can be extracted from observed changes in ocean
heat storage.
3,Water vapor feedback
Lindzen,negative,upper tropospheric water vapor decreases
with global warming.
Hansen,positive,upper and lower tropospheric water vapor
increase with global warming,
References,(these include references by Lindzen stating that,
in response to global warming,water vapor will decrease at
altitudes above 2-3 km),
Comment,accurate observations of interannual changes
(several years) and long-term changes (1-2 decades) of upper
tropospheric water vapor could provide defining data,
4,CO2 contribution to the ~33° C natural greenhouse effect
Lindzen,"Even if all other greenhouse gases (such as carbon
dioxide and methane) were to disappear,we would still be left
with over 98 percent of the current greenhouse effect." Cato
Review,Spring issue,87-98,1992; "If all CO2 were removed
from the atmosphere,water vapor and clouds would still
provide almost all of the present greenhouse effect." Res,
Explor,9,191-200,1993,
Lacis and Hansen,removing CO2,with water vapor kept
fixed,would cool the Earth 5-10° C; removing CO2 and trace
gases with water vapor allowed to respond would remove
most of the natural greenhouse effect,
5,When will global warming and climate change be
obvious?
Lindzen,I personally feel that the likelihood over the next
century[21st century] of greenhouse warming reaching
magnitudes comparable to natural variability remains small,
Hansen,"With the climatological probability of a hot
summer represented by two faces (say painted red) of a six-
faced die,judging from our model by the 1990s three or four
of the six die faces will be red,It seems to us that this is a
sufficient 'loading' of the dice that it will be noticeable to the
man in the street." J,Geophys,Res,93,9341-9364,1988,
6,Planetary disequilibrium
Hansen,Earth is out of radiative equilibrium with space by at
least approximately 0.5 W/m2 (absorbing more energy than it
emits),
Comments,This is the most fundamental measure of the state
of the greenhouse effect,Because the disequilibrium is a
product of the long response time of the climate system,which
in turn is a strong function of climate sensitivity,confirmation
of the disequilibrium provides information on climate
sensitivity and an indication of how much additional global
warming is "in the pipeline" due to gases already added to the
atmosphere,
This disequilibrium could be measured as the sum of the rate
of heat storage in the ocean plus the net energy going into the
melting of ice,Existing technology,including very precise
measurements of ocean and ice sheet topography,could
provide this information,
1 气候与气候变化
2 气候灾害风险
3 两个例子
4 气候灾害风险管理
5 气候变化风险指标
Delworth & Knutson,2000
Delworth & Knutson,2000
Global Climate System
人类活动的气候影响
什么是温室效应?
地球大气中有哪些温室气体?
温室气体从何处来?
温室效应很不好,是吗?
近百年的气候变化有多少是温室效应造成的?
如果 CO2加倍全球温度会上升多少?
21世纪气候会怎样?
不确定性有多大? (有关全球变暖的争论 )
地球大气中有哪些温室气体?
温室气体从何处来?
Halocarbons are carbon-based compounds that contain
chlorine,fluorine,bromine,or iodine,
The CFC's,halons (bromine- containing CFC's),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),chloroform (CHCl3) and
carbon tertrachloride (CCl4) are exclusively of
industrial origin and did not exist prior to 60 years ago.
Halocarbons are responsible for the environmental problem of
stratospheric ozone depletion and several of the compounds are
strong greenhouse gases,
CFC's are far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2 but are
10,000 times more powerful as greenhouse gases,
Proportion of CFC's has declined since banning of their use in
1984.
Annual global emissions of the halocarbons CFC-11 (filled black squares)
and CFC-12 (open squares) to the atmosphere from 1972 to 1992,
principally from their use as refrigerants and agents for the blowing of
foam,Notice the decline in emissions following enactment of the
Montreal Protocol in 1987,(After World Meteorological Organization,
1994).
Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide,Atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration in parts per million (ppm) as recorded
at five sites (data from Bradley and Jones,1995).
温室效应很可怕,是吗?
近百年的气候变化有多少是温室效应造成的?
气候系统对各种强迫的敏感性的不确定性
2xCO2 ~ 4W/m2
~ 1.2 C (without feed-backs)
actual value = ~3 C (1.5-4.5C)
21世纪气候会怎样?
1000 1100 1200 1300 1 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 6 0 0 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
0
2
4
6
观 测
重 建
预 测
平 均 3,6 C
o
( )年
度
温
/
C
o
是祸还是福?
何种对策?
全球变暖的有关争论
Table 1,Key Differences with Skeptics
1,Observed global warming,real or measurement problem?
Hansen,global warming is 0.5-0.75°C in past century,at least
~0.3°C in past 25 years.
Lindzen,since about 1850 "...more likely,.,0.1±0.3°C" (MIT
Tech Talk,34,#7,1989),
2,Climate sensitivity (equilibrium response to 2xCO2)
Lindzen,~< 1°C
Hansen,3±1°C
Comments,paleoclimate data,improved climate models,and
process studies may narrow uncertainties; observed climate
change on decadal time scales will provide constraint if
climate forcings are measured; implicit information on climate
sensitivity can be extracted from observed changes in ocean
heat storage.
3,Water vapor feedback
Lindzen,negative,upper tropospheric water vapor decreases
with global warming.
Hansen,positive,upper and lower tropospheric water vapor
increase with global warming,
References,(these include references by Lindzen stating that,
in response to global warming,water vapor will decrease at
altitudes above 2-3 km),
Comment,accurate observations of interannual changes
(several years) and long-term changes (1-2 decades) of upper
tropospheric water vapor could provide defining data,
4,CO2 contribution to the ~33° C natural greenhouse effect
Lindzen,"Even if all other greenhouse gases (such as carbon
dioxide and methane) were to disappear,we would still be left
with over 98 percent of the current greenhouse effect." Cato
Review,Spring issue,87-98,1992; "If all CO2 were removed
from the atmosphere,water vapor and clouds would still
provide almost all of the present greenhouse effect." Res,
Explor,9,191-200,1993,
Lacis and Hansen,removing CO2,with water vapor kept
fixed,would cool the Earth 5-10° C; removing CO2 and trace
gases with water vapor allowed to respond would remove
most of the natural greenhouse effect,
5,When will global warming and climate change be
obvious?
Lindzen,I personally feel that the likelihood over the next
century[21st century] of greenhouse warming reaching
magnitudes comparable to natural variability remains small,
Hansen,"With the climatological probability of a hot
summer represented by two faces (say painted red) of a six-
faced die,judging from our model by the 1990s three or four
of the six die faces will be red,It seems to us that this is a
sufficient 'loading' of the dice that it will be noticeable to the
man in the street." J,Geophys,Res,93,9341-9364,1988,
6,Planetary disequilibrium
Hansen,Earth is out of radiative equilibrium with space by at
least approximately 0.5 W/m2 (absorbing more energy than it
emits),
Comments,This is the most fundamental measure of the state
of the greenhouse effect,Because the disequilibrium is a
product of the long response time of the climate system,which
in turn is a strong function of climate sensitivity,confirmation
of the disequilibrium provides information on climate
sensitivity and an indication of how much additional global
warming is "in the pipeline" due to gases already added to the
atmosphere,
This disequilibrium could be measured as the sum of the rate
of heat storage in the ocean plus the net energy going into the
melting of ice,Existing technology,including very precise
measurements of ocean and ice sheet topography,could
provide this information,
1 气候与气候变化
2 气候灾害风险
3 两个例子
4 气候灾害风险管理
5 气候变化风险指标
Delworth & Knutson,2000
Delworth & Knutson,2000
