Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 1 of 42
Assessment for Impacts of
Climate/Climate Change
Xie Yun
School of Geography
Beijing Normal University
2003.2
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 2 of 42
Goals of the course
? Understanding of basic theories on impacts
of climate/changes;
? Knowing of basic tools or methods on
assessment of climate/change impacts;
? Applications in your interested field studies;
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 3 of 42
Requirements of the course
? Listening,Speaking,Writing
? Registration
? Cancellations if absent more than 3 times
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 4 of 42
Scores of the course
? Credits,3
? Homework/Report/discussion
? Final Exam
? Ratio of above items
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 5 of 42
Contact for question answering
? Name,Xie Yun
? Office,Bio-geo Building,room 240
? Tel,58807391
? Email,xieyun@bnu.edu.cn
? ftp,210.31.68.167
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 6 of 42
References
? IPCC Report--TAR
? U.S,National Report
? 殷永元，王桂新,全球气候变化评估方法
及其应用,2004，高等教育出版社
? 王绍武, 现代气候学研究进展, 2001，
气象出版社
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 7 of 42
Outlines of the course
Chap.1 Introduction
Chap,2 Background knowledge— Climate &
Change
Chap,3 Climate/change and agriculture
Chap,4 Climate/change and water resources
Chap,5 Climate/change and land resources
Chap,6 Climate/change and disasters
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 8 of 42
Three Questions,
? What is the assessment of climate impact?
? Why does the the assessment of climate
impact?
? How does the assessment of climate impact?
Chap,1 Introduction
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 9 of 42
Chap,1 Introduction
1.1 Definition
Assessment for climate impact
Assessment for climate change impact
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Methods
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 10 of 42
1.1 Definition
(1) Background
? Fact,global climate change
climate theory
? Social requirements,sustainable development
Resources,environment
? Technological development supports
Data availability,RS,automatic measurement
Data processing,GIS,modeling
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 11 of 42
1.1 Definition
(2) Some related terms
? Climate/climate change/climate system
? Impacts of climate change
Exposure unit/weather-sensitive sectors
Effect/impact
? Assessment/evaluation
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 12 of 42
1.1 Definition
气候：气候状态（古典气候学，描述）
气候变化（现代气候学，动力）
影响：气候带 /型，气候资源（应用气候学）
气候变化影响
评价：资源利用、适宜性
非线性，相互作用
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 13 of 42
1.1 Definition
作用对象
exposure unit
影响过程
impact
影响结果
effect
评价
Assessment
/evaluation
量化
quantity
作用因子（ Stimuli）,气候及其变化
Climate and changes
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 14 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average
weather," or more rigorously,as the statistical description in
terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a
period of time ranging from months to thousands of years,The
classical period is 3 decades,as defined by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO),These quantities are most
often surface variables such as temperature,precipitation,and
wind,Climate in a wider sense is the state,including a statistical
description,of the climate system,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 15 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate Change
Climate change refers to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result of human
activity,This usage differs from that in the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),which
defines "climate change" as,"a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time
periods." See also climate variability,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 16 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate Variability
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state
and other statistics (such as standard deviations,the
occurrence of extremes,etc.) of the climate on all temporal
and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events,
Variability may be due to natural internal processes within
the climate system (internal variability),or to variations in
natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external
variability),
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 17 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate System
The climate system is the highly complex system consisting
of five major components,the atmosphere,the hydrosphere,
the cryosphere,the land surface,and the biosphere,and the
interactions between them,The climate system evolves in
time under the influence of its own internal dynamics and
because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions,
solar variations and human-induced forcings such as the
changing composition of the atmosphere and land use,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 18 of 42
1.1 Definition
(Climate) Impacts
Consequences of climate change on natural and human systems,
Depending on the consideration of adaptation,one can
distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts,
? Potential Impacts--All impacts that may occur given a projected
change in climate,without considering adaptation,
? Residual Impacts--The impacts of climate change that would
occur after adaptation,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 19 of 42
1.1 Definition
Aggregate Impacts
Total impacts summed up across sectors and/or regions,
The aggregation of impacts requires knowledge of (or
assumptions about) the relative importance of impacts in
different sectors and regions,Measures of aggregate
impacts include,for example,the total number of people
affected,change in net primary productivity,number of
systems undergoing change,or total economic costs,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 20 of 42
1.1 Definition
(Climate) Impact Assessment
The practice of identifying and evaluating the
detrimental and beneficial consequences of
climate change on natural and human systems,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 21 of 42
1.1 Definition
Integrated Assessment
A method of analysis that combines results and
models from the physical,biological,economic,and
social sciences,and the interactions between these
components,in a consistent framework to evaluate
the status and the consequences of environmental
change and the policy responses to it,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 22 of 42
? exposure unit,An activity,group,region,or resource that
is subjected to climatic stimuli,
? effect,directly produced by a process or agent (e.g.,
climate) acting on an exposure unit
? impact,an effect on the exposure unit having some
assigned relative value or importance
? assessment,the scientific appraisal of effects
? evaluation,the assignment of significance or importance
to effects or to alternative strategies
1.1 Definition
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 23 of 42
Homework 1,比较
? 气候影响评价
? 气候变化影响评价
(1) From stimuli
(2) From exposure units
(3) From assessing methods
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 24 of 42
1.1 Definition
气候 /变化
作用对象
农业 /生态系统、水资源、土地资源
本课程,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 25 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Sensitivity
? Vulnerability
? Adaptability
? Mitigation
Sustainable development
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 26 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Sensitivity
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is
affected,either adversely or beneficially,by
climate-related stimuli,The effect may be direct
(e.g.,a change in crop yield in response to a change
in the mean,range,or variability of temperature) or
indirect (e.g.,damages caused by an increase in the
frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise),
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 27 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is susceptible to,or
unable to cope with,adverse effects of climate
change,including climate variability and extremes,
Vulnerability is a function of the character,
magnitude,and rate of climate variation to which a
system is exposed,its sensitivity,and its adaptive
capacity,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 28 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Adaptability-Adaptive Capacity
The ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to
moderate potential damages,to take advantage of
opportunities,or to cope with the consequences,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 29 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Adaptation
调整自然或人类系统以响应实际发生的或预期的气候
变化及其影响 。 据此, 可以减轻气候变化的有害作用
并利用其有益方面, 达到趋利弊害的目的 。 适应的类
型很多, 如预先适应, 自治性适应, 有计划适应, 个
别适应, 公众适应, 以及反应性适应等 。
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities,
Various types of adaptation can be distinguished,
including anticipatory and reactive adaptation,private and
public adaptation,and autonomous and planned
adaptation,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 30 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Mitigation
以人为或人工干涉的方式减少温室气体的源或
增加温室气体的汇, 以达到减轻或阻止气候恶
化或不利后果的目的 。
An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 31 of 42
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 32 of 42
From Yin Yongyuan,
? Bio-physical assessment
? Economic impact assessment
? Social impact assessments
? Integrated assessment
1.3 Methods
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 33 of 42
1.3 Methods
? Climate data/methods used
Statistical
Climate models
Scenario projection
? Specific field models linked to climate related stimuli
Hydrological models
Ecosystem models
Crop growth models
Soil erosion models
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 34 of 42
1.3 Methods
? Downscaling— scale linkage
Time scale,daily,monthly,yearly,or longer
Space scale,local,regional,global
data dependent
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 35 of 42
Case study,
Exposed units,Land productivity Soil erosion
Quantify,(1) Crop growth model Soil erosion model
(2) GCMs scenarios
Assessment,integrated of (1) and (2)
Linkage,downscaling
1.3 Methods
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 36 of 42
Thanks!
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 37 of 42
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 38 of 42
Chap,2 Background Knowledge
? Climate system
? Observed climate variability and change
? Greenhouse gas effects
? Natural and human induced climate
changes
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 39 of 42
Chap,3 Climate/Change and
Agriculture
? Inventory of climate resources
Light
Heat
Water
Potential productivity
? Climate and food security
Case study
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 40 of 42
Chap,4 Climate/Change and Water
Resources
? Hydrological cycle and water balance
? Hydrological modeling
? Estimation of water resources
? Supply and requirement of water resources
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 41 of 42
Chap,5 Climate/Change and Land
Resources
? Climate and soil erosion
Rainfall and erosivity
Soil erosion models
? Climate and land productivity
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 42 of 42
Chap,6 Climate/Change and
Disasters
? Climate change and extreme events
? Droughts
? Floods
? Frosts
Back
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 1 of 42
Assessment for Impacts of
Climate/Climate Change
Xie Yun
School of Geography
Beijing Normal University
2003.2
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 2 of 42
Goals of the course
? Understanding of basic theories on impacts
of climate/changes;
? Knowing of basic tools or methods on
assessment of climate/change impacts;
? Applications in your interested field studies;
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 3 of 42
Requirements of the course
? Listening,Speaking,Writing
? Registration
? Cancellations if absent more than 3 times
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 4 of 42
Scores of the course
? Credits,3
? Homework/Report/discussion
? Final Exam
? Ratio of above items
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 5 of 42
Contact for question answering
? Name,Xie Yun
? Office,Bio-geo Building,room 240
? Tel,58807391
? Email,xieyun@bnu.edu.cn
? ftp,210.31.68.167
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 6 of 42
References
? IPCC Report--TAR
? U.S,National Report
? 殷永元，王桂新,全球气候变化评估方法
及其应用,2004，高等教育出版社
? 王绍武, 现代气候学研究进展, 2001，
气象出版社
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 7 of 42
Outlines of the course
Chap.1 Introduction
Chap,2 Background knowledge— Climate &
Change
Chap,3 Climate/change and agriculture
Chap,4 Climate/change and water resources
Chap,5 Climate/change and land resources
Chap,6 Climate/change and disasters
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 8 of 42
Three Questions,
? What is the assessment of climate impact?
? Why does the the assessment of climate
impact?
? How does the assessment of climate impact?
Chap,1 Introduction
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 9 of 42
Chap,1 Introduction
1.1 Definition
Assessment for climate impact
Assessment for climate change impact
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Methods
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 10 of 42
1.1 Definition
(1) Background
? Fact,global climate change
climate theory
? Social requirements,sustainable development
Resources,environment
? Technological development supports
Data availability,RS,automatic measurement
Data processing,GIS,modeling
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 11 of 42
1.1 Definition
(2) Some related terms
? Climate/climate change/climate system
? Impacts of climate change
Exposure unit/weather-sensitive sectors
Effect/impact
? Assessment/evaluation
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 12 of 42
1.1 Definition
气候：气候状态（古典气候学，描述）
气候变化（现代气候学，动力）
影响：气候带 /型，气候资源（应用气候学）
气候变化影响
评价：资源利用、适宜性
非线性，相互作用
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 13 of 42
1.1 Definition
作用对象
exposure unit
影响过程
impact
影响结果
effect
评价
Assessment
/evaluation
量化
quantity
作用因子（ Stimuli）,气候及其变化
Climate and changes
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 14 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average
weather," or more rigorously,as the statistical description in
terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a
period of time ranging from months to thousands of years,The
classical period is 3 decades,as defined by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO),These quantities are most
often surface variables such as temperature,precipitation,and
wind,Climate in a wider sense is the state,including a statistical
description,of the climate system,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 15 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate Change
Climate change refers to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result of human
activity,This usage differs from that in the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),which
defines "climate change" as,"a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time
periods." See also climate variability,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 16 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate Variability
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state
and other statistics (such as standard deviations,the
occurrence of extremes,etc.) of the climate on all temporal
and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events,
Variability may be due to natural internal processes within
the climate system (internal variability),or to variations in
natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external
variability),
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 17 of 42
1.1 Definition
Climate System
The climate system is the highly complex system consisting
of five major components,the atmosphere,the hydrosphere,
the cryosphere,the land surface,and the biosphere,and the
interactions between them,The climate system evolves in
time under the influence of its own internal dynamics and
because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions,
solar variations and human-induced forcings such as the
changing composition of the atmosphere and land use,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 18 of 42
1.1 Definition
(Climate) Impacts
Consequences of climate change on natural and human systems,
Depending on the consideration of adaptation,one can
distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts,
? Potential Impacts--All impacts that may occur given a projected
change in climate,without considering adaptation,
? Residual Impacts--The impacts of climate change that would
occur after adaptation,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 19 of 42
1.1 Definition
Aggregate Impacts
Total impacts summed up across sectors and/or regions,
The aggregation of impacts requires knowledge of (or
assumptions about) the relative importance of impacts in
different sectors and regions,Measures of aggregate
impacts include,for example,the total number of people
affected,change in net primary productivity,number of
systems undergoing change,or total economic costs,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 20 of 42
1.1 Definition
(Climate) Impact Assessment
The practice of identifying and evaluating the
detrimental and beneficial consequences of
climate change on natural and human systems,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 21 of 42
1.1 Definition
Integrated Assessment
A method of analysis that combines results and
models from the physical,biological,economic,and
social sciences,and the interactions between these
components,in a consistent framework to evaluate
the status and the consequences of environmental
change and the policy responses to it,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 22 of 42
? exposure unit,An activity,group,region,or resource that
is subjected to climatic stimuli,
? effect,directly produced by a process or agent (e.g.,
climate) acting on an exposure unit
? impact,an effect on the exposure unit having some
assigned relative value or importance
? assessment,the scientific appraisal of effects
? evaluation,the assignment of significance or importance
to effects or to alternative strategies
1.1 Definition
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 23 of 42
Homework 1,比较
? 气候影响评价
? 气候变化影响评价
(1) From stimuli
(2) From exposure units
(3) From assessing methods
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 24 of 42
1.1 Definition
气候 /变化
作用对象
农业 /生态系统、水资源、土地资源
本课程,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 25 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Sensitivity
? Vulnerability
? Adaptability
? Mitigation
Sustainable development
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 26 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Sensitivity
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is
affected,either adversely or beneficially,by
climate-related stimuli,The effect may be direct
(e.g.,a change in crop yield in response to a change
in the mean,range,or variability of temperature) or
indirect (e.g.,damages caused by an increase in the
frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise),
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 27 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is susceptible to,or
unable to cope with,adverse effects of climate
change,including climate variability and extremes,
Vulnerability is a function of the character,
magnitude,and rate of climate variation to which a
system is exposed,its sensitivity,and its adaptive
capacity,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 28 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Adaptability-Adaptive Capacity
The ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to
moderate potential damages,to take advantage of
opportunities,or to cope with the consequences,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 29 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Adaptation
调整自然或人类系统以响应实际发生的或预期的气候
变化及其影响 。 据此, 可以减轻气候变化的有害作用
并利用其有益方面, 达到趋利弊害的目的 。 适应的类
型很多, 如预先适应, 自治性适应, 有计划适应, 个
别适应, 公众适应, 以及反应性适应等 。
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities,
Various types of adaptation can be distinguished,
including anticipatory and reactive adaptation,private and
public adaptation,and autonomous and planned
adaptation,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 30 of 42
1.2 Objectives
? Mitigation
以人为或人工干涉的方式减少温室气体的源或
增加温室气体的汇, 以达到减轻或阻止气候恶
化或不利后果的目的 。
An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases,
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 31 of 42
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 32 of 42
From Yin Yongyuan,
? Bio-physical assessment
? Economic impact assessment
? Social impact assessments
? Integrated assessment
1.3 Methods
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 33 of 42
1.3 Methods
? Climate data/methods used
Statistical
Climate models
Scenario projection
? Specific field models linked to climate related stimuli
Hydrological models
Ecosystem models
Crop growth models
Soil erosion models
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 34 of 42
1.3 Methods
? Downscaling— scale linkage
Time scale,daily,monthly,yearly,or longer
Space scale,local,regional,global
data dependent
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 35 of 42
Case study,
Exposed units,Land productivity Soil erosion
Quantify,(1) Crop growth model Soil erosion model
(2) GCMs scenarios
Assessment,integrated of (1) and (2)
Linkage,downscaling
1.3 Methods
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 36 of 42
Thanks!
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 37 of 42
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 38 of 42
Chap,2 Background Knowledge
? Climate system
? Observed climate variability and change
? Greenhouse gas effects
? Natural and human induced climate
changes
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 39 of 42
Chap,3 Climate/Change and
Agriculture
? Inventory of climate resources
Light
Heat
Water
Potential productivity
? Climate and food security
Case study
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 40 of 42
Chap,4 Climate/Change and Water
Resources
? Hydrological cycle and water balance
? Hydrological modeling
? Estimation of water resources
? Supply and requirement of water resources
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 41 of 42
Chap,5 Climate/Change and Land
Resources
? Climate and soil erosion
Rainfall and erosivity
Soil erosion models
? Climate and land productivity
Back
Course for graduate students
2012-3-21 Assessment of climate/change impacts 42 of 42
Chap,6 Climate/Change and
Disasters
? Climate change and extreme events
? Droughts
? Floods
? Frosts
Back
