Assessment for Impacts of
Climate/Climate Change
Yun Xie
Dept,of Resources and Environmental Sciences
Beijing Normal University
2003.2
For graduate students
References
For graduate students
? IPCC Report--TAR
? U.S,National Report
? 王绍武, 现代气候学研究进展, 2001，
气象出版社
气候影响评价
气候：气候状态（古典气候学，描述）
气候变化（现代气候学，动力）
影响：气候带 /型，气候资源（应用气候学）
气候变化影响评价
评价：资源利用、适宜性
非线性，相互作用
For graduate students
气候影响评价
气候 /变化
作用对象
农业 /生态系统、水资源、土地资源
For graduate students
Content
Chap.1 Introduction
Chap,2 Background knowledge— Climate & Change
Chap,3 Climate/change and agriculture
Chap,4 Climate/change and water resources
Chap,5 Climate/change and land resources
Chap,6 Climate/change and disasters
For graduate students
Three Questions,
? What is the assessment of climate impact?
? Why does the the assessment of climate
impact?
? How does the assessment of climate impact?
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Three Questions,
? What is the assessment of climate impact?
? Why does the the assessment of climate
impact?
? How does the assessment of climate impact?
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Aims,
? Project climate changes
? Identify vulnerabilities
? Assess impacts
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Chap,1 Introduction
?Definition
Assessment for climate impact
Assessment for climate change impact
?Background
?Objectives
?Methods
For graduate students
Back
Chap,1 Introduction
--definition
作用对象
exposure unit
影响过程
impact
影响结果
effect
评价
Assessment
/evaluation
量化
quantity
For graduate students
For graduate students
Terms,
? exposure unit,the activity,group,region or resource
exposed to significant climatic variations
? effect,directly produced by a process or agent (e.g.,
climate) acting on an exposure unit
? impact,an effect on the exposure unit having some
assigned relative value or importance
? assessment,the scientific appraisal of effects
? evaluation,the assignment of significance or importance
to effects or to alternative strategies
Chap,1 Introduction
--definition
?气候影响评价 --揭示某一长期时段气候特征对
人类生产和生活的影响，包括平均特征和极端
事件。
例如：气候资源与灾害、气候要素参与的地球
表层过程等
?气候变化影响评价 -揭示气候变化对人类生存
环境、人类生产和生活的影响。
Chap,1 Introduction
--definition
For graduate students
Chap,1 Introduction
--background
For graduate students
? Scientific development
Fact,climate change
Theory,climatology-- from classical to modern
? Technological development
Observation,in situ/space-based observation
Data processing,computer,proxy data
? Social requirements
Resources depletion
Disasters increasing
Sustainable development
Chap,1 Introduction
--objectives
For graduate students
? Adaptation
调整自然或人类系统以响应实际发生的或预期的气候变化
及其影响 。 据此, 可以减轻气候变化的有害作用并利用其
有益方面, 达到趋利弊害的目的 。 适应的类型很多, 如预
先适应, 自治性适应, 有计划适应, 个别适应, 公众适应,
以及反应性适应等 。
? Mitigation
以人为或人工干涉的方式减少温室气体的源或增加温室气
体的汇, 以达到减轻或阻止气候恶化或不利后果的目的 。
Tools,
? Historical records
? Climate models
? Sensitivity analyses
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Chap,1 Introduction
--methods (1)
For graduate students
? Climate models (GCMs)
Calibration
Sensitivity analysis
Scenario projection
? Specific field models
Hydrological models
Ecosystem models
Crop growth models
Soil erosion models
Chap,1 Introduction
--methods (2)
For graduate students
? Integrated method
Natural/environment
Economic
Social
? Downscaling method
Time scale,daily,monthly,yearly,or longer
Space scale,local,regional,global
data dependent
For graduate students
Case study,
Exposed units,Land productivity Soil erosion
Quantify,(1) Crop growth model Soil erosion model
(2) GCMs scenarios
Assessment,integrated of (1) and (2)
Linkage,downscaling
Chap,1 Introduction
--methods (3)
Back
Chap,2 Background Knowledge
For graduate students
? Climate system
? Observed climate variability and
change
? Greenhouse gas effects
? Natural and human induced climate
changes
Back
2.1 Climate System
1,Components
The climate system,as defined in the IPCC-TAR Report,is
an interactive system consisting of five major components,
the atmosphere,the hydrosphere,the cryosphere,the land surface and
the biosphere,forced or influenced by various external
forcing mechanisms,
2,Classification,open,cascade
3,Features,thermal,dynamic,humidity,and static
Chap,2
Back
2.2 Observed Climate Changes
Climate is changing,
? 0.4-0.8 oC since 1860; 1990’s -warmest
decade;
1998-warmest year
? Precipitation-- increase/decrease
? Snow cover/sea ice extent– decrease
? Sea level– increase
? Extreme events—increase
Chap,2
2.3 Greenhouse Gas Effects
1,Greenhouse gas concentrations are
increasing,
? CO2(30%),CH4(150%),N2O (16%),
? Anthropogenic aerosols
? O3
Chap,2
2.3 Greenhouse Gas Effects
2,Radiative forcing of climate change,
? Radiative forcing,
GHGs,positive radiative forcing
Anthropogenic aerosols,negative
radiative forcing,
many aspects uncertain
Total net radiative forcing is positive
? Global Warming Potential,
? Total net radiative forcing is positive
Chap,2
2.3 Greenhouse Gas Effects
2,Carbon cycle
? Main components
? Human perturbation
? in ocean system
? in land system,
GPP(120),NPP(60),NEP(10),NBP(1)
PgC(GtC)/yr
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
Processes for scenario projections,
? Social/economic development,
population,growth rate,GDP (SAR)
7 fields
? Land use/cover change,policy
? Environment,6 fields
? Climate,
? Sea-level rise
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
? Climate scenario and climate change
scenario
? Methods,
Incremental for sensitivity
analysis
Analogue (temporal and spatial)
Use of GCMs output
? Baseline,30-year normal (1961-1990)
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
? Construction,
1,data source (IPCC-Data Distribution
Center)
2,GCMs output selected,4 principles
Vintage
Resolution
Validation,
Represent
3,Variables,differences or ratios
Control(Climate) run
Future climate run
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
? Construction,
4,Spatial scales
Simple
Higher resolution,Regional GCM,DS,
Experiment
5,Temporal scales
Changes in mean and variance
Interannual,monthly,daily
Next chapter
6,Extreme events
7,Low probability,high impact enents
Chap,2
Back
Back
Changes of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere since 1750 by human activities
Back
The radiative forcing of the climate system since 1750
by gases,aerosol articles,and solar variation Back
Main components of the carbon cycle
Back
The human perturbation to the carbon cycle Back
Carbon cycling in the ocean Back
Carbon cycling on land Back
温室气体浓度变化
气体 C O 2 C H 4 N 2 O C F C - 1 2 H C F C - 2 2 C F 4
工业化前浓度 280 ppm 0, 7 p p m 0, 2 7 5 p p m 0 0 0
1992 年浓度 356ppm 1, 7 1 4 p p m 0, 3 1 1 p p m 5 0 3 p p t 1 0 5 p p t 7 0 p p t
当前的年增加率 1, 5 p p m 0, 0 1 3 p p m 0, 7 5 p p b 1 8 - 2 0 p p t 7 - 8 p p t 1, 1 - 1, 3 p p t
大气寿命 5 0 - 2 0 0 1 2 - 1 7 120 102 1 3, 3 5000
主要源汇
p p m = 1 0
-6
( p e r c e n t a g e o f p e r m illi o n ) ;
p p b = 1 0
-9
( p e r c e n t a g e o f p e r b i lli o n ) ;
p p t = 1 0
- 1 2
( p e r c e n t a g e o f p e r t r i lli o n )
Climate scenario development Back
Chap,3 Climate/Change and
Agriculture
For graduate students
? Inventory of climate resources
Light
Heat
Water
Potential productivity
? Climate and food security
Case study
Back
Chap,4 Climate/Change and
Water Resources
For graduate students
? Hydrological cycle and water balance
? Hydrological modeling
? Estimation of water resources
? Supply and requirement of water resources
Back
Chap,5 Climate/Change and
Land Resources
For graduate students
? Climate and soil erosion
Rainfall and erosivity
Soil erosion models
? Climate and land productivity
Back
Chap,6 Climate/Change and
Disasters
For graduate students
? Climate change and extreme events
? Droughts
? Floods
? Frosts
Back
Climate/Climate Change
Yun Xie
Dept,of Resources and Environmental Sciences
Beijing Normal University
2003.2
For graduate students
References
For graduate students
? IPCC Report--TAR
? U.S,National Report
? 王绍武, 现代气候学研究进展, 2001，
气象出版社
气候影响评价
气候：气候状态（古典气候学，描述）
气候变化（现代气候学，动力）
影响：气候带 /型，气候资源（应用气候学）
气候变化影响评价
评价：资源利用、适宜性
非线性，相互作用
For graduate students
气候影响评价
气候 /变化
作用对象
农业 /生态系统、水资源、土地资源
For graduate students
Content
Chap.1 Introduction
Chap,2 Background knowledge— Climate & Change
Chap,3 Climate/change and agriculture
Chap,4 Climate/change and water resources
Chap,5 Climate/change and land resources
Chap,6 Climate/change and disasters
For graduate students
Three Questions,
? What is the assessment of climate impact?
? Why does the the assessment of climate
impact?
? How does the assessment of climate impact?
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Three Questions,
? What is the assessment of climate impact?
? Why does the the assessment of climate
impact?
? How does the assessment of climate impact?
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Aims,
? Project climate changes
? Identify vulnerabilities
? Assess impacts
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Chap,1 Introduction
?Definition
Assessment for climate impact
Assessment for climate change impact
?Background
?Objectives
?Methods
For graduate students
Back
Chap,1 Introduction
--definition
作用对象
exposure unit
影响过程
impact
影响结果
effect
评价
Assessment
/evaluation
量化
quantity
For graduate students
For graduate students
Terms,
? exposure unit,the activity,group,region or resource
exposed to significant climatic variations
? effect,directly produced by a process or agent (e.g.,
climate) acting on an exposure unit
? impact,an effect on the exposure unit having some
assigned relative value or importance
? assessment,the scientific appraisal of effects
? evaluation,the assignment of significance or importance
to effects or to alternative strategies
Chap,1 Introduction
--definition
?气候影响评价 --揭示某一长期时段气候特征对
人类生产和生活的影响，包括平均特征和极端
事件。
例如：气候资源与灾害、气候要素参与的地球
表层过程等
?气候变化影响评价 -揭示气候变化对人类生存
环境、人类生产和生活的影响。
Chap,1 Introduction
--definition
For graduate students
Chap,1 Introduction
--background
For graduate students
? Scientific development
Fact,climate change
Theory,climatology-- from classical to modern
? Technological development
Observation,in situ/space-based observation
Data processing,computer,proxy data
? Social requirements
Resources depletion
Disasters increasing
Sustainable development
Chap,1 Introduction
--objectives
For graduate students
? Adaptation
调整自然或人类系统以响应实际发生的或预期的气候变化
及其影响 。 据此, 可以减轻气候变化的有害作用并利用其
有益方面, 达到趋利弊害的目的 。 适应的类型很多, 如预
先适应, 自治性适应, 有计划适应, 个别适应, 公众适应,
以及反应性适应等 。
? Mitigation
以人为或人工干涉的方式减少温室气体的源或增加温室气
体的汇, 以达到减轻或阻止气候恶化或不利后果的目的 。
Tools,
? Historical records
? Climate models
? Sensitivity analyses
Chap,1 Introduction
For graduate students
Chap,1 Introduction
--methods (1)
For graduate students
? Climate models (GCMs)
Calibration
Sensitivity analysis
Scenario projection
? Specific field models
Hydrological models
Ecosystem models
Crop growth models
Soil erosion models
Chap,1 Introduction
--methods (2)
For graduate students
? Integrated method
Natural/environment
Economic
Social
? Downscaling method
Time scale,daily,monthly,yearly,or longer
Space scale,local,regional,global
data dependent
For graduate students
Case study,
Exposed units,Land productivity Soil erosion
Quantify,(1) Crop growth model Soil erosion model
(2) GCMs scenarios
Assessment,integrated of (1) and (2)
Linkage,downscaling
Chap,1 Introduction
--methods (3)
Back
Chap,2 Background Knowledge
For graduate students
? Climate system
? Observed climate variability and
change
? Greenhouse gas effects
? Natural and human induced climate
changes
Back
2.1 Climate System
1,Components
The climate system,as defined in the IPCC-TAR Report,is
an interactive system consisting of five major components,
the atmosphere,the hydrosphere,the cryosphere,the land surface and
the biosphere,forced or influenced by various external
forcing mechanisms,
2,Classification,open,cascade
3,Features,thermal,dynamic,humidity,and static
Chap,2
Back
2.2 Observed Climate Changes
Climate is changing,
? 0.4-0.8 oC since 1860; 1990’s -warmest
decade;
1998-warmest year
? Precipitation-- increase/decrease
? Snow cover/sea ice extent– decrease
? Sea level– increase
? Extreme events—increase
Chap,2
2.3 Greenhouse Gas Effects
1,Greenhouse gas concentrations are
increasing,
? CO2(30%),CH4(150%),N2O (16%),
? Anthropogenic aerosols
? O3
Chap,2
2.3 Greenhouse Gas Effects
2,Radiative forcing of climate change,
? Radiative forcing,
GHGs,positive radiative forcing
Anthropogenic aerosols,negative
radiative forcing,
many aspects uncertain
Total net radiative forcing is positive
? Global Warming Potential,
? Total net radiative forcing is positive
Chap,2
2.3 Greenhouse Gas Effects
2,Carbon cycle
? Main components
? Human perturbation
? in ocean system
? in land system,
GPP(120),NPP(60),NEP(10),NBP(1)
PgC(GtC)/yr
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
Processes for scenario projections,
? Social/economic development,
population,growth rate,GDP (SAR)
7 fields
? Land use/cover change,policy
? Environment,6 fields
? Climate,
? Sea-level rise
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
? Climate scenario and climate change
scenario
? Methods,
Incremental for sensitivity
analysis
Analogue (temporal and spatial)
Use of GCMs output
? Baseline,30-year normal (1961-1990)
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
? Construction,
1,data source (IPCC-Data Distribution
Center)
2,GCMs output selected,4 principles
Vintage
Resolution
Validation,
Represent
3,Variables,differences or ratios
Control(Climate) run
Future climate run
Chap,2
2.4 Climate Scenario Development
? Construction,
4,Spatial scales
Simple
Higher resolution,Regional GCM,DS,
Experiment
5,Temporal scales
Changes in mean and variance
Interannual,monthly,daily
Next chapter
6,Extreme events
7,Low probability,high impact enents
Chap,2
Back
Back
Changes of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere since 1750 by human activities
Back
The radiative forcing of the climate system since 1750
by gases,aerosol articles,and solar variation Back
Main components of the carbon cycle
Back
The human perturbation to the carbon cycle Back
Carbon cycling in the ocean Back
Carbon cycling on land Back
温室气体浓度变化
气体 C O 2 C H 4 N 2 O C F C - 1 2 H C F C - 2 2 C F 4
工业化前浓度 280 ppm 0, 7 p p m 0, 2 7 5 p p m 0 0 0
1992 年浓度 356ppm 1, 7 1 4 p p m 0, 3 1 1 p p m 5 0 3 p p t 1 0 5 p p t 7 0 p p t
当前的年增加率 1, 5 p p m 0, 0 1 3 p p m 0, 7 5 p p b 1 8 - 2 0 p p t 7 - 8 p p t 1, 1 - 1, 3 p p t
大气寿命 5 0 - 2 0 0 1 2 - 1 7 120 102 1 3, 3 5000
主要源汇
p p m = 1 0
-6
( p e r c e n t a g e o f p e r m illi o n ) ;
p p b = 1 0
-9
( p e r c e n t a g e o f p e r b i lli o n ) ;
p p t = 1 0
- 1 2
( p e r c e n t a g e o f p e r t r i lli o n )
Climate scenario development Back
Chap,3 Climate/Change and
Agriculture
For graduate students
? Inventory of climate resources
Light
Heat
Water
Potential productivity
? Climate and food security
Case study
Back
Chap,4 Climate/Change and
Water Resources
For graduate students
? Hydrological cycle and water balance
? Hydrological modeling
? Estimation of water resources
? Supply and requirement of water resources
Back
Chap,5 Climate/Change and
Land Resources
For graduate students
? Climate and soil erosion
Rainfall and erosivity
Soil erosion models
? Climate and land productivity
Back
Chap,6 Climate/Change and
Disasters
For graduate students
? Climate change and extreme events
? Droughts
? Floods
? Frosts
Back
