1 DEVELOPMENT OF HYPOTHESIS, OBJECTIVE AND SUCCESS CRITERIA (HOS) 16.621 2 DEFINITION OF A HYPOTHESIS ? Hypothesis A tentative explanation that accounts for facts and can be tested by further investigation; a theory Something taken to be true for the purpose of argument or investigation; an assumption ?Experiment A test under controlled conditions that is made to demonstrate a known truth, examine the validity of a hypothesis, or determine the efficacy of something previously untried. American Heritage Dictionary, 3rd Edition 3 CONNECTION BETWEEN HYPOTHESIS AND EXPERIMENT ? Hypothesis is a critical part of experiment design Translation: I have an idea and I want to see if it is valid Consequence: My experiment is designed so it can achieve this ? “No experiment should be undertaken without a clear preconception of the form its results might take” Advice to a Young Scientist [Sir Peter Medawar] ?The experiment is being carried out to assess the hypothesis, not to prove it – Examine engineering evidence critically – One school of thought is that the most critical scrutiny should be when experiment and hypothesis agree ? “The strength of your conviction about an idea has no bearing at all on whether it is true or not - and vice versa” [Medawar] 4 AN ACTIVE LEARNING EXERCISE For your project, with your partner, write down (or commit to memory) a short description of “your project” and what you think the Hypothesis is (Hypotheses are) I will ask groups to report on what they wrote You will get more chances to hone the H (and OS) An experimental observation is that a good HOS is a requisite (even a blueprint) for success in this subject 5 OBJECTIVES Ob-jec-tive, n. Something that one's efforts or actions are intended to attain or accomplish; purpose; goal; target [from Webster's New Universal Unabridged Dictionary, 1996, Barnes and Noble, Publishers] 6 CONNECTION BETWEEN HYPOTHESIS AND OBJECTIVE ? The hypothesis and the objective must be consistent ? The objective flows from the hypothesis statement ? The objective in 16.621 will be a high level statement about the nature and the goal of the experiment to be carried out. 7 AN ACTIVE LEARNING EXERCISE For your project, with your partner, write down (or commit to memory) a short description of your project and what you think the Hypothesis and Objectives are I will ask groups to report on what they wrote You will get more chances to hone the HOS An experimental observation is that a good HOS is a requisite (even a blueprint) for success in this subject 8 SUCCESS CRITERIA(I) ? How do we measure success? suc-cess, n. Favorable or desired outcome; The attainment of wealth, favor, or eminence [Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary] ? There are at least two measures of success we should consider ? Discuss first the successful journey through 16.62X ? What do we use as success criteria for 16.62X? 9 SUCCESS CRITERIA(II) ? The success criteria in 16.62X is clear assessment of your hypothesis ? Success is NOT whether the hypothesis is true –You are not trying to “prove” a theory ? This needs to be reflected in your write-up 10 ? Hypothesis - A flapping wing can have substantial advantages over conventional (propeller) propulsion systems for micro UAVs (Uninhabited Air Vehicles) ? Objective - Create a micro-sized ornithoper wing and compare its performance to a propeller system ? Success goal - Demonstration that the performance (thrust and propulsive efficiency) were [or were not] X and Y per cent better than for propeller driven micro-UAVs AN EXAMPLE:MICRO-SIZED ORNITHOPER WING DESIGN [E. Craparo/B. Ingram] 11 WRITING SUCCESS CRITERIA ? Do: - Use action verbs that indicate a drive towards completion / resolution of some problem - Examples: assess, define, demonstrate, determine ? Don't: - Use verbs that show no closure - Examples: understand, study, investigate... 12 A NOTE ON ANALOGIES WITH THE REAL WORLD PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ? In product development there are typically several explicit reviews ? These serve as gates through which the design and development process must past (PDR, CDR, Passport Review, etc.) ? The process is sometimes referred to as a staged gate process – At each succeeding gate the stakes are larger, the amount of money spent is greater, and the closeness to fielding the product increases ? Based on our previous experience with the HOS as a predictor of success, we have a staged gate in our process ? The HOS needs to convey to the 16.621 staff that your project will be successful -- If not, this must be fixed before you can proceed further 13 ANOTHER VIEW OF SUCCESS OVER AND ABOVE 16.62X ? You have an idea you think is exciting ? You are working hard to see if it is true (favor, eminence, wealth will result) ? The yes outcome is much more desirable than the no outcome ? This is most often the case in research or project work-- you are working to make the project an engineering success, rather than to assess a hypothesis ? This is a different success criteria than that needed for 16.62X and we need to think in different terms 14 A WAY TO MEASURE SUCCESS (OAA16.62X) ? Ask yourself (or others) the question: –What would be such a good result that we would have a party? ? I first heard this asked by Prof. Richard Murray of Caltech ? It has since become known as the the Caltech party criterion ? Using this as a thought exercise can be a good way to get people to think about success criteria and to communicate them ? It may be an adjunct to your Success Criteria for 16.62X, but it does not replace them ?The two types of success criteria need to be kept separate 15 OTHER ASPECTS ? Once the HOS is set we need to define in depth the path to get there ? Need to think through the whole process on an end-to-end basis ? Need to identify the hard parts ? Need to identify the key milestones (mid term exams) ? This will include (at some level) questions such as: - What will we do? - Why will we do it? - Where will we do it? - Who will help us? - How will we do it? - How well do we have to do it? - When will we do it? 16 SOME FINAL COMMENTS ? I have not discussed “Background and Motivation” ? YOU, however, need to do so in Version I ? Several of the questions in the “Research Catechism” go directly to this point ? More generally, the “Research Catechism” is helpful as a filter to apply to any research plan 17 G. H. HEILMEIER’S “CATECHISM” FOR EVALUATING A RESEARCH PROJECT ? What are you trying to do? (Articulate your objectives using absolutely no jargon) ? How is it done today and what are the limits of current practice? ? What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful? ? Who cares? If it is successful, what difference will it make? ? What are the risks and the payoffs? ? How much will it cost? How long will it take? ? What are the midterm and “final” exams to check for its success? 18 THE NEXT INSTALLMENT FOR HOS ? Your assignment is to formulate a draft version of your HOS – Each part is one or two carefully chosen sentences ? On Tuesday, 24 February we will discuss these in class ? Send your HOS to us electronically Monday ? Bring your draft HOS on a transparency on Tuesday