Who is in the Space Enterprise and what are their roles? Reading: A. US National Space Policy, http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/OSTP/html/OSTP_Home.html B. DoD Space Policy,http://www.c3i.osd.mil/org/c3is/spacepol/index.html C. NRO homepage, http://www.nro.mil D. NASA homepage, http://www.nasa.gov/enterprises.html E. Aerospace Integration F. State of the Space Industry 1999 Outline: A. The players B. Their functions C. US Government space budgets by year D. Role of the major players in space policy and their equities and issues - NASA - National Security Space - Air Force + (Navy and Army) - NRO - Commercial E. Impact of commercial space on everyone else The players Military - Fight and Win the Nation's wars Organize, Train & Equip ? Air Force (the largest spender) ? Army, Navy ? BMDO, DARPA, DISA Provide Combatant forces to supported CINCS US Space Command ? Air Force Space Command (the largest spender) ? Naval Space Command ? Army Space Command Intelligence - Provide timely information and data to support foreign, defense and economic policies National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) (the largest spender) NIMA NSA DIA Army Navy Marines Air Force Civil - NASA(the largest spender) DOC (NOAA, Office of Space Commercialization) DOT (FAA) State Dept DOE Dept of the Interior (USGS) Oversight OSTP (National Science and Technology Council) OMB Congress (Intelligence Committees, Defense Committees, Independent Agency Committees) Commercial Launch hardware and services providers Lockheed Martin Boeing Orbital Sciences Corp. China Russia ArianeSpace Satellite hardware providers Hughes Electronics Corp. Space Systems Loral Lockheed Martin Motorola TRW Boeing OSC Alcatel Matra Marconi Satellite Operators Hughes Electronics Corp. Lockheed Martin Iridium OSC Boeing INMARSAT INTELSAT Etc Ground system operators, subsystem suppliers Raytheon Alliant etc. International Significant Space Programs (Government and Military and Commercial) Russia China ESA France Germany Italy Japan India Israel Other Academia (Stanford, BU, Caltech, MIT, U of Colorado, Arizona State U etc.) Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (APL, MIT Lincoln Lab, Aerospace, LANL, LLNL, Sandia, JPL) Space Sectors- The Functions Military Communications Environmental Monitoring Precision Navigation & Timing (for satellites & for Earth based users) Warning & Surveillance Space Control Launch Satellite Command & Control Space Weapons Intelligence Communications IMINT MASINT SIGINT Launch Satellite Command and Control Civil Communications Environmental Monitoring Navigation & Timing (for satellites) Launch Space Exploration Manned Space Remote Sensing Commercial Communications Launch Remote Sensing Satellite command & control Navigation & Timing (for satellites) US Government Space Budgets (Then Year Dollars) FY NASA DoD Other Total 1986 7,165 14,126 368 21,659 1987 9,809 16,287 352 26,448 1988 8,302 17,679 626 26,607 1989 10,098 17,906 444 28,448 1990 12,142 15,616 387 28,145 1991 13,036 14,181 566 27,783 1992 13,199 15,023 624 28,846 1993 13,077 14,106 559 27,742 1994 13,022 13,166 465 26,653 1995 12,543 10,644 489 23,676 1996 12,569 11,514 707 24,790 Note the rise and decline of NASA as well as the rise and decline of the DoD However, note the growth of commercial markets (approx the same now) Glob 100 al Government Commercial 80 Inve n s stme nt ($B) Missions, Equities, Budgets and Space Assets of Major Players 60 40 20 NASA Mission 0 1995 2000 2005 Explore and develop space for human enterprise, increase knowledge about earth and space and conduct research in space and aeronautics. Budget About 12 billion for space Space Assets Human Space Flight Space Shuttle ISS Space Science Hubble Space telescope Chandra Space Telescope Galileo Cassini Many Mars missions Earth Science EOS-AM1 EOS-PM1 Etc RLV X-33 X-34 Communications TDRS Equities (see national space policy) Human space flight, space science, earth science (with NOAA), RLVs. Technology missions shared with AF and NRO. NASA role in US Space Policy Lead in R&D for civil space activities E.g. deep space exploration (clear) Human space flight (clear) Reusable launch vehicles (not so clear…) Focus on Space Science with goal being science as opposed to operations like space weather , 4 themes: 1) Origins – Are we alone?, Where did we come from? 2) Exploration of the Solar System: - Explain the formation of the Solar System & the Earth - Seek the origin of life & its existence beyond Earth - Chart our destiny in Solar System 3) Sun-Earth Connection: - Understand the changing Sun and it’s effects on the Solar System, life & society. 4) Structure & Evolution of the Universe: - Explain the structure in the Universe & forecast our destiny. - Explore the cycles of matter & energy in the evolving universe. - Examine the ultimate limits of gravity & energy in the universe. Earth Science with the goal being to obtain a scientific understanding of the entire Earth system on a global scale. - practical goal to enable us to predict both short & long term changes in biosphere dynamics. Human Space Flight with the goal of opening the space frontier by exploring, using and enabling the development of space and expanding the human experience into the far reaches of space. Aerospace Technology with the goal of achieving the full potential of space for all human endeavors through affordable space transportation. - Note the following points: The policy goals for NASA are to: - enhance knowledge - help understand human influence on the environment - conduct human space flight for scientific, commercial and exploration reasons - explore space technologies & applications in support of economic competitiveness. Thus NASA will: 1) Operate ISS primarily as a means to support a future decision on the desirability of further human exploration (read Mars but this is the last mention in the space policy on human exploration of Mars). 2) Help develop an RLV to enable U.S. to leapfrog launch competitors 3) Focus on robotic exploration of Mars 4) Focus on reducing cost by innovative technologies (this arose from the concern that NASA focused only on science return not cost) 5) Always keep safety in mind for ISS & shuttle (i.e. there will be no more Challenger disasters) 6) Not compete with the private sector (especially JPL, a concern of the past) 7) Get out of non-core things that can be provided by the space section (i.e. space communication) Clinton Administration 1993 - Department of Defense Space Policy n 3 ? National security space activities shall contribute to US national security by: - supporting right of self-defense of US, allies and friends - deterring, warning, and defending against enemy attack - assuring hostile forces cannot prevent our use of space - countering, if necessary, space systems and services used for hostile purposes - enhancing operations of U.S. and allied forces - ensuring our ability to conduct military and intelligence space-related activities - satisfying military and intelligence requirements during peace and crisis as well as through all levels of conflict t f e e y ? Supports and amplifies U.S. national space policy ? Space recognized as an operational medium (like land, sea and air) ? Space mission areas defined: - Space Support - Force Enhancement - Space Control - Force Application The Next Air Force In Space 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000S COMM WARNING WEATHER NAV LAUNCH LES 5 IST DOD UHF 1967 TACSAT 1969 DSCS II 1971 DSCS COMPLETE SET 1978 DSCS III 1982 MILSTAR TACTICAL REDIRECT 1990 MILSTAR 1994 4 MILSTARs 2000 MIDAS IR WARNING 1961 IMEWS DSP GEN 1 1970 DSP GEN 2 1976 DSP GEN 3 1989 TIROS NASA/DOD 1960 TOS 1966 ITOS/NOAA TIROS + 1970 TIROS N/NOAA 1978 DMSP INITIAL 1982 POES NOAA 10- 1986 TRANSIT 1964 TRANSIT CIVIL USE 1967 GPS PROGRAM 1973 GPS II 1989 GPS IIA 1990 GPS IIR 1996 DELTA FROM THOR 1959 SCOUT 1960 ATLAS CENTAUR 1963 TITAN II ICBM 1963 SPACE SHUTTLE 1981 TITAN LAUNCHER 1986 DOD OFF SHUTTLE 1987-88 ATLAS II 1988 DELTA 1989 ATLAS IIAS 1993 SPUTNIK 1957 GBS 2004 ADVANCED MILSATCOM 2006 SBIRS GEO 2002 SBIRS LEO 2004 NPOES 2007 GPS IIF 2001 EELV-MLV 2002 EELV-HLV 2004 IDCSP 1966 2000s Air Force Air Force budget for space & missiles is about 9 billion. Air Force is executive agent for many space systems Precision Engagement 1943 1970 1991 1996 SPACE IS AN ENABLER OF PRECISION ENGAGEMENT 30 F-4 sorties 176 bombs (500#) 400 ft CEP One Target Vietnam 1500 B-17 sorties 9000 bombs (250#) 3300 ft CEP One 60? x 100? target W.W.II 1 F-117 sortie 2 bombs (2000#) 10 ft CEP Two Targets per Sortie Desert Storm 1 B-2 sortie 16 bombs (2000#) 20 ft CEP 16 Targets per Pass All Weather Air Force Space Policy Tenants ? Spacepower will be as decisive in future combat as airpower is today ? The Air Force leads the integration of space throughout all joint operations ? Create fully integrated air and space forces that exploit the aerospace environment Air Force Space Policy Navy Space Policy Army Space Policy r e e y Objectives ? Integrate space into all facets of joint operations ? Develop the world's best spacelift and infrastructure ? Create effective TMD, NMD, and GMD capabilities ? Pursue international space cooperation for a global missile warning system y e y - Space is an essential medium for the conduct of maritime operations. DON will integrate space into every facet of naval operations. The primary focus is to provide space-based support to the warfighter. Emphasis is placed on naval tactical requirements and operations y e y - Recognizes that Army is dependent on space systems, capabilities and products - Space products are a force multiplier - Space to be embedded in Army doctrine, training scenarios, wargames, exercises, and plans. - Requires developing, maintaining, and enhancing Army space expertise,to include provision for training of space-knowledgeable soldiers and civilians. NRO NRO operates the nations reconnaissance satellites. Budget is classified. NRO is in the business of providing US global information superiority through global reconnaissance. ?From the National space policy: - satellite photoreconnaissance for intelligence collection and arms control. - satellite reconnaissance for planning and conduct of military operations. - satellite reconnaissance for mapping and for disaster relief. - reconnaissance includes signals & measurements and signature intelligence. ? Equities are in the business of reconnaissance and intelligence. ? Advanced Systems and Technology directorate has recently released innovation initiatives to develop leap frog space technologies. http://www.nro.odci.gov/background.html Commercial (worldwide) ? Worldwide space revenues, 1998 ? Growth of use of space assets ? Percentage of space industry revenue from commercial (worldwide) (1998) nullcommercial already dominant ? Amount invested in space last decade ~$2billion/yr. (small compared to government) ? Amount estimated in next decade ? Biggest revenue source for 2000 International direct to home services ~$97.6 billion ~34%/yr. ~64% ~$17-19billion ~$40billion @~$4billion/yr. ~$11billion ? Market for global telecommunications seems large given: 1)60% of world does not have basic phone service. 2) less than 5% of world population has a PC. ? This perceived large growth in commercial industry is driving the government to consider partnerships. Space Industry Commercial Dominance in Near-term 25 Commercial Government 2000 20 15 10 Satellites & Telecom GPS launch 0 5 Services 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1995 Telecom GPS Services Satellites & 5 y r g r o w t h r a t e ~ 8 0 % launch Remote Sensing Remote Sensing $B Over $100 billion US dollars invested in space today 1,500 - 1,800 satellites to be launched next 10 years . . . only about 25% government Over 580 active satellites (200+ US satellites) $0.5 Trillion to be spent on space 1996 - 2000 . . . only about 30% government The Government does not drive the space market 0 20 40 60 80 1995 2000 2005 $ Billions GovernmentGovernment CommercialCommercial 100 Global Investment ($B) Global Investment ($B) Why Partner? US Space Policy for commercial calls for: A. Support and enhance US economic competitiveness while protecting US national security. {this has shifted from economic first to national security first in grey areas} B. Purchase of commercial space services where feasible and noncompetitive with private sector by government. {This is to allow the commercial industry to grow. An interesting issue is how strongly the national security exception is pushed especially in the case of telecommunications. A clear military need for them but also a concern about how reliable the commercial people will be} C. US will not subsidize commercial space. {This flies in the face of the launch range policy} D. US will transfer technology to the private sector. {This explicitly recognizes the key government role in developing much of the technology behind the commercial success, e.g. ACTS satellite.} E. US will aim for free and fair trade in commercial launch services. {Long term policy goal which conflicts with national security goals and foreign policy goals]. Commercial industry top issues that have been on space policy (1999): - “Politicizing’ of space in the US , e.g. “Chinagate”. - Technology transfer impediments to free trade. - Very long licensing times by US State Dept. - Integration of Air Traffic Control and Space System control as space constellations grow. - Declaring outerspace a free trade zone to encourage R&D and manufacturing in space. ? First three issues arise from the collision of the national security and commercial space policies. - A fundamental issue for the commercial people is the uncertainty generated in the markets by the US government actions. E.g. Rejection of Hughes request to launch on Long March was unexplained. Licensing of hyperspectral data to commercial users is still underway with no clear resolution. - Uncertainty increases financial risk which increases cost of borrowing money. This is an issue that governments do not have to deal with. - Thus the biggest issue for commercial people is free trade associated with stability of policy. - There are huge implications for natural security.