Explosion of Commercial Space and the
Implications for National Security
General (Ret) Thomas S. Moorman, Jr.
Background
? Space not mainstream
? Desert Storm
? Air Force Role
- Space Service
- Strategic Vision
- Budget
- Outlook
? National Defense Panel Report
An approach -
Greater reliance on commercial space
In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space
program will be commercial space
Evolution of National Space Sectors
? Civil – Primary NASA
? Military
? Intelligence
- Missile Gap
- U2 Model – AF/CIA Cooperation
- Corona
- NRO
? Commercial
- Communications Satellite Industry
- Other Industries in 1980’s
- Reagan Space Policy
Independent nullInterdependent nullCommercial a far bigger actor
Explosion of Commercial Space
? Space Dominated by Government now changing
- Rapid evolution of info technology
- Progress in international space policy
- Changes in cost/processes of satellite manufacturing
? Current Picture
- Infusion of capital
- ? $85B today - $121B by 2000
- Commercial space growing at 20%, government 2%
- 1996 commercial revenue exceeds government
- Volume
- ? 1700 launches projected
In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space
program will be commercial space
Communications
Environ Monitoring
Navigation/Timing
Warning/Surveillance
Space Control
Launch
Satellite
2
Space Weapons
Communications
IMINT
MASINT
SIGINT
Launch
Satellite C
2
Communications
Environ Monitoring
Navigation/Timing
Launch
Space Exploration
Manned Space
Remote Sensing
Communications
Launch
Remote Sensing
Satellite C
2
Navigation/Timing
Space Sectors - The Functions
Military
Civil
Intelligence Commercial
C
Air Force
Army, Navy,
BMDO, DARPA, DISA
US Space,
Naval Space,
Army Space,
AF Space
NRO
NIMA
NSA
DIA
Army
Navy
Marines
Air Force
NASA
DOC (NOAA),
DOT
Space Sectors - The Players
Military
Civil
Intelligence Commercial
Manned Space
Environmental Monitoring
Space Exploration
SIGINT
Space
Space Weapons
MASINT
Warning/
Surveillance
Satellite C
2
Communications
Launch
Navigation/Timing
Remote Sensing (IMINT)
Space Sectors Interdependence
Military Civil
Intelligence
Commercial
Control
Commercial Space Communications
? Giant in the past
- Information Revolution
- Bandwidth is King
? Market - $50B in new development
? Programs
- Geosynchronous (GEO)
?30-40 launches annually
? Will get heavier
? Cyberstar, Spaceway, Astrolink, Eurosky Way
- Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)
? Large constellations/Huge investments
? Teledesic, Celestri, WEST, Skybridge
Commercial Space Communications
? LEO- Inexpensive World-wide cellular
- US owned big LEO
?Iridium, Globalstar, Constellation
- Foreign big LEO
? ICO Global (79 National Consortium), Signal (Russia),
- Euro African
- US little LEO
? Orbcomm, Gemmet, FAI Sat and Starsys
- Foreign little LEO
? Elekon (Russia/Germany), GONET (Russia), IRIS
- (Belgium), LEO One (Mexico)
? Outlook
- Well capitalized
- High risks
- All launch within 2-3 years
Commercial Space Communications
? Implications for National Security
- Operational
? Capacity
? Flexibility
? Bosnia & Direct Broadcast System
? Gapfiller
- Efficiencies
? Short acquisition cycles
? New technology infusion
? Satellite design
? Simplified SAT C
2
? Stable & flexible capital
Commercial Space Launch
? Change as dramatic as communications
? Market
- 1975-1995-23 launches/year, 75-80% government
- 1997-2006-45-52 launches/year, commercial exceeds
government
? Space launch modernization
- Increasing costs, decreasing
- National Space Launch Transportation Policy (1994)
- EELV-$2B, MLV (2001), HLV (2004)
- NASA Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV)
?X-33
Commercial Space Launch
? Implications for National Security
- More timely launch
- Costs decreasing
- Commercialization of launch services
? Government a customer
? Pay for capability on orbit
- Reassign expensive military
Commercial Space – Remote Sensing
? Past – Sole domain of the Government
- NRO
- Landsat
? Policy debate in Early 1990’s
- Foreign competition
- Resolution & dissemination
- Two schools of thought
? Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992
- Permitted commercialization/licensing
- Established rules of the road
- Landsat management
- Sale of technology
Commercial Space – Remote Sensing
? Market
- $2.65B industry by 2000
- Innumerable uses – huge potential
- “Field of Dreams”
? Programs
- US – 7 licenses, volatile
? Earthwatch – Early Bird 1, Quick Bird
? Space Imaging EOSAT
? Orbimage – Orbview Series
- International
? France (SPOT)
? Japan (ALOS)
? Canada (RADARSAT)
? China/Brazil (CBERS)
? India (IRS)
? Brazil (EROS)
Commercial Space – Remote Sensing
? Implications for National Security
- Negative – Availability to adversaries
? Lose element of surprise
? Targeting capability
- Positive
? Operational
- Flexibility
- Timeliness
- Map Source
- Complement existing systems
? Efficiency
- Reduce requirements for collection systems
- Savings unknown but substantial
Commercial Space - Navigation
? Unlike communications, remote sensing & lauch
model
- Little incentive – “Free Good”
- International view
? Presidential GPS Policy (1996)
- DOD to acquire, operate & maintain
- Selective availability
? Examine yearly beginning 2000
? Discontinue use in 2006
? Market
- Phenomena Growth
? $500M (1992) null$3B (1997) null$8.5B (2000)
? Car navigation & handheld
New Military Needs
? Dilemma – How does the Air force fund the vision
- Maintain basic services
- Probable reductions in defense budget
? New Initiatives
- Protecting space systems
- AWACS/JSTARs Replacement
- RLV/Spaceplane
- Weapons Technologies
? Kinetic solutions
? Space-based laser
Conclusion
? Space an Enabler for Revolution in Military Affairs
? Must Take Advantage of Commercial Space
? Need to become More Efficient
- Commercial space & the revolution in business affairs
- Adopt processes/practices from this dynamic industry
The Dilemma
Space Sustainment
Protection
GMTI
SBL
Space Plane
$
Time