Explosion of Commercial Space and the Implications for National Security General (Ret) Thomas S. Moorman, Jr. Background ? Space not mainstream ? Desert Storm ? Air Force Role - Space Service - Strategic Vision - Budget - Outlook ? National Defense Panel Report An approach - Greater reliance on commercial space In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space program will be commercial space Evolution of National Space Sectors ? Civil – Primary NASA ? Military ? Intelligence - Missile Gap - U2 Model – AF/CIA Cooperation - Corona - NRO ? Commercial - Communications Satellite Industry - Other Industries in 1980’s - Reagan Space Policy Independent nullInterdependentnullCommercial a far bigger actor Explosion of Commercial Space ? Space Dominated by Government now changing - Rapid evolution of info technology - Progress in international space policy - Changes in cost/processes of satellite manufacturing ? Current Picture - Infusion of capital - ? $85B today - $121B by 2000 - Commercial space growing at 20%, government 2% - 1996 commercial revenue exceeds government - Volume - ? 1700 launches projected In coming years, most dramatic changes in national space program will be commercial space Communications Environ Monitoring Navigation/Timing Warning/Surveillance Space Control Launch Satellite 2 Space Weapons Communications IMINT MASINT SIGINT Launch Satellite C 2 Communications Environ Monitoring Navigation/Timing Launch Space Exploration Manned Space Remote Sensing Communications Launch Remote Sensing Satellite C 2 Navigation/Timing Space Sectors - The Functions Military Civil Intelligence Commercial C Air Force Army, Navy, BMDO, DARPA, DISA US Space, Naval Space, Army Space, AF Space NRO NIMA NSA DIA Army Navy Marines Air Force NASA DOC (NOAA), DOT Space Sectors - The Players Military Civil Intelligence Commercial Manned Space Environmental Monitoring Space Exploration SIGINT Space Space Weapons MASINT Warning/ Surveillance Satellite C 2 Communications Launch Navigation/Timing Remote Sensing (IMINT) Space Sectors Interdependence Military Civil Intelligence Commercial Control Commercial Space Communications ? Giant in the past - Information Revolution - Bandwidth is King ? Market - $50B in new development ? Programs - Geosynchronous (GEO) ?30-40 launches annually ? Will get heavier ? Cyberstar, Spaceway, Astrolink, Eurosky Way - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) ? Large constellations/Huge investments ? Teledesic, Celestri, WEST, Skybridge Commercial Space Communications ? LEO- Inexpensive World-wide cellular - US owned big LEO ?Iridium, Globalstar, Constellation - Foreign big LEO ? ICO Global (79 National Consortium), Signal (Russia), - Euro African - US little LEO ? Orbcomm, Gemmet, FAI Sat and Starsys - Foreign little LEO ? Elekon (Russia/Germany), GONET (Russia), IRIS - (Belgium), LEO One (Mexico) ? Outlook - Well capitalized - High risks - All launch within 2-3 years Commercial Space Communications ? Implications for National Security - Operational ? Capacity ? Flexibility ? Bosnia & Direct Broadcast System ? Gapfiller - Efficiencies ? Short acquisition cycles ? New technology infusion ? Satellite design ? Simplified SAT C 2 ? Stable & flexible capital Commercial Space Launch ? Change as dramatic as communications ? Market - 1975-1995-23 launches/year, 75-80% government - 1997-2006-45-52 launches/year, commercial exceeds government ? Space launch modernization - Increasing costs, decreasing - National Space Launch Transportation Policy (1994) - EELV-$2B, MLV (2001), HLV (2004) - NASA Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) ?X-33 Commercial Space Launch ? Implications for National Security - More timely launch - Costs decreasing - Commercialization of launch services ? Government a customer ? Pay for capability on orbit - Reassign expensive military Commercial Space – Remote Sensing ? Past – Sole domain of the Government - NRO - Landsat ? Policy debate in Early 1990’s - Foreign competition - Resolution & dissemination - Two schools of thought ? Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992 - Permitted commercialization/licensing - Established rules of the road - Landsat management - Sale of technology Commercial Space – Remote Sensing ? Market - $2.65B industry by 2000 - Innumerable uses – huge potential - “Field of Dreams” ? Programs - US – 7 licenses, volatile ? Earthwatch – Early Bird 1, Quick Bird ? Space Imaging EOSAT ? Orbimage – Orbview Series - International ? France (SPOT) ? Japan (ALOS) ? Canada (RADARSAT) ? China/Brazil (CBERS) ? India (IRS) ? Brazil (EROS) Commercial Space – Remote Sensing ? Implications for National Security - Negative – Availability to adversaries ? Lose element of surprise ? Targeting capability - Positive ? Operational - Flexibility - Timeliness - Map Source - Complement existing systems ? Efficiency - Reduce requirements for collection systems - Savings unknown but substantial Commercial Space - Navigation ? Unlike communications, remote sensing & lauch model - Little incentive – “Free Good” - International view ? Presidential GPS Policy (1996) - DOD to acquire, operate & maintain - Selective availability ? Examine yearly beginning 2000 ? Discontinue use in 2006 ? Market - Phenomena Growth ? $500M (1992)null$3B (1997)null$8.5B (2000) ? Car navigation & handheld New Military Needs ? Dilemma – How does the Air force fund the vision - Maintain basic services - Probable reductions in defense budget ? New Initiatives - Protecting space systems - AWACS/JSTARs Replacement - RLV/Spaceplane - Weapons Technologies ? Kinetic solutions ? Space-based laser Conclusion ? Space an Enabler for Revolution in Military Affairs ? Must Take Advantage of Commercial Space ? Need to become More Efficient - Commercial space & the revolution in business affairs - Adopt processes/practices from this dynamic industry The Dilemma Space Sustainment Protection GMTI SBL Space Plane $ Time