1
宏观经济变量
Macroeconomic Variables
第2章（教材2）
Chapter 02
主要的宏观经济变量
Major Macroeconomic Variable
?产出、失业和通货膨胀，这些词语每天
都出现在报纸和晚间新闻里。
The words output, unemployment, and
inflation appears daily in newspapers and
on the evening news.
总产出
Aggregate Output
?在十九世纪早期，以及在大萧条期间，研究经济活动
的经济学家们根本没有可靠的整体经济活动的衡量方
法。
Economists studying economic activity in the
nineteenth century or during the Great Depression had
no measure of aggregate(total) activity on which to
rely.
?直到二战结束后，在主要国家里，才汇总出了国民收
入与产品帐户（简称国民收入帐户）。
It was not until the end of World War II that national
income and product accounts (or national income
accounts, for short) were put together in major
countries.
总产出
Aggregate Output
?与其他帐户体系一样，国民收入帐户定义一些
概念，然后构造对应于这些概念的衡量指标。
Like any accounting system, the national
income accounts define concepts, and then
construct measures corresponding to these
concepts.
?没有这一帐户，数字的相加就成为问题。
Without them, numbers that should add up do
not.
GDP、增加值和收入
GDP, Value Added, and Income
?在国民收入帐户中，总产出的衡量指标
是国内生产总值，简称GDP。
The measure of aggregate output in the
national income accounts is gross
domestic product, or GDP, for short.
GDP、增加值和收入
GDP, Value Added, and Income
?考虑一个经济中的GDP有三种方法：
There are three ways of thinking about an
economy’s GDP:
? GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中所生产的最终产品
与服务GDP的价值。
GDP is the value of the final goods and services
produced in the economy during a given period.
? GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中增加值之和。
GDP is the sum of value added in the economy
during a given period.
? GDP是一定时期内、一个经济中收入之和。
GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during a
given period.
2
GDP：最终产品法
GDP: Final Goods Approach
?关键词是最终。
The important word is final.
?例子：假设一个经济仅有两个企业组成
……
An example: Suppose that the economy is
composed of just two firms ……
GDP：最终产品法
GDP: Final Goods Approach
企业1：钢厂Firm 1: Steel Company
销售收入Revenues from sales $100
支出（工资）Expenses (wages) $80
利润Profit $20
企业2：汽车厂Firm 2: Car Company
销售收入Revenues from sales $210
支出Expenses $170
工资Wages $70
购买钢Steel purchases $100
利润Profit $40
GDP是多少What is GDP?
$310 或or $210
GDP：最终产品法
GDP: Final Goods Approach
?因为钢是中间产品——用来生产最终产品（汽
车）的产品，因而不应该被记入GDP——最终
产品。
Because steel is an intermediate good, a good
used in the production of the final good, cars,
and thus should not be counted in GDP – the
value of final output.
?另一个考虑的方法是设想两个企业合并后会发
生什么。
Another way to think of this is to imagine what
happens when the two firms merge.
GDP：增加值法
GDP: Value Added Approach
?一个企业在生产过程中产生的增加值，被定义
成它产出的价值减去在它生产中使用的中间物
品的价值。
The value added by a firm in the production
process is defined as the value of its production
minus the value of the intermediate goods it
uses in production.
Value added
= value of production - value of intermediate goods
GDP：增加值法
GDP: Value Added Approach
?在两企业的例子中In the two-firm example:
?钢厂Steel
?没有中间物品No intermediate goods
?增加值Value added = $100
?汽车Cars
?中间物品（钢）Intermediate goods (steel) = $100
?增加值Value added = $210 - $100 = $110
($110) cars added value ($100) steel added Value
($210) GDP
+
=
GDP：最终产品法与增加值法
GDP: Final Good vs. Value Added
Approach
?这两种定义隐含地说明了，最终物品与
服务的价值（方法1）也可以被看成是这
些最终物品生产链上的所有企业的增加
值之和（方法2）。
The two definitions imply that the value
of final goods and services (the first
approach) can also be thought of as the
sum of the value added by all firms along
the chain of production of those final
goods (the second approach).
3
GDP：收入法
GDP: Income Approach
?到目前为止，我们都是从产出方来看
GDP。
We have looked so far at GDP from the
production side.
?看待GDP的第三种方法是从收入方来看
。
A third way of looking at GDP is from
the income side.
GDP：收入法
GDP: Income Approach
?考虑一个企业支付中间产品后剩下的收益：
Think about the revenue left to a firm after it
has paid for intermediate goods.
?一些收益以对销售征税的方式被政府获得，这样的
税被称作间接税。
Some of the revenues are collected by the
government in the form of taxes on sales – such
taxes are called indirect taxes.
?一些收益付给工人——这一部分被称作劳动收入。
Some of the revenues go to pay workers – this
component is called labor income.
?余下的进入企业——这一部分被称作资本收入。
The rest goes to the firm – that component is called
capital income.
GDP：收入法
GDP: Income Approach
?从收入方看企业，增加值就是间接税、
劳动收入和资本收入之和。
Looking at the firm from the income side,
value added is the sum of indirect taxes,
labor income, and capital income.
income capital
income labor
taxes indirect (income) GDP
+
+
=
GDP：收入法
GDP: Income Approach
? Income (steel)
? Labor = $80
? Capital = $20
$100
? Income (car)
? Labor = $70
? Capital = $40
$110
($110) car added value
($100) steel added value -$210)-added (value GDP
+
=
Compared to:
$210 $110 $100 (income) GDP =+=
? Income (whole)
? Labor = $150(71%)
? Capital = $ 60(29%)
$210(100%)
美国按收入分类的GDP构成（1960和1998年）
The Composition of GDP by Type of Income,
1960 and 1998
Labor income 66% 65%
Capital income 26% 27%
Indirect taxes 8% 8%
In Percent 1960 1998
名义和实际GDP
Nominal and Real GDP
?名义GDP是生产的最终产品的数量乘以它们的
当期价格再求和。
Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of
final goods produced times their current price.
?名义GDP随时间上升的原因有两种：
Nominal GDP increases over time for two
reasons.
?大多数产品的产量随时间上升。
The production of most goods increases over time.
?大多数产品的价格也随时间上升。
The prices of most goods also increases over time.
4
名义和实际GDP
Nominal and Real GDP
?如果我们想衡量的是产量及其变动，我们就需
要消除价格上升的影响。
If our intention is to measure production and
its change over time, we need to eliminate the
effect of increasing prices.
?因此我们将实际GDP构造成最终产品数量乘以
不变（而非当期）价格再求和。
That’s why real GDP is constructed as the sum
of the quantities of final goods times constant
(rather than current) prices.
名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济
Nominal and Real GDP:
One Good Economy
$169,000
(16%)
$13,000131993
$144,000
(44%)
$12,000121992
$100,000$10,000101991
名义GDP
Nominal GDP
(% 上升
increase)
汽车价格
Price of
Cars
汽车数量
Quantity
of Cars
年份
Year
名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济
Nominal and Real GDP:
One Good Economy
?如何定义实际GDP？
How should we define real GDP?
?可以定义成汽车的数量。
We can define it as the number of cars.
?或者用一个共同的价格来乘汽车的数量，例如
，用1992年汽车价格。
Or we can define it by multiplying the number
of cars in each year by a common price, say, the
price of a car in 1992.
?这一方法实际上给出了以1992年美元衡量的实际
GDP。
The approach gives us in effect real GDP in 1992
dollars.
名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济
Nominal and Real GDP:
One Good Economy
$156,000
(8%)
$169,000
(16%)
$13,000131993
$144,000
(20%)
$144,000
(44%)
$12,000121992
$120,000$100,000$10,000101991
以1992年美元
衡量的实际
GDP
Real GDP in
1992 Dollars
(% increase)
名义GDP
Nominal GDP
(% increase)
汽车价格
Price of
Cars
汽车数量
Quantity
of Cars
年份
Year
名义和实际GDP：单一产品经济
Nominal and Real GDP:
One Good Economy
?如果我们用1993年价格来衡量实际GDP，结果
会怎样？
What if we decided to measure real GDP in
1993 prices?
?实际GDP的水平值会不同，但其逐年的增长率
不变。
The level of real GDP would be different, but
its increase from year to year would be the
same as above.
名义和实际GDP：多产品经济
Nominal and Real GDP:
Multi-Good Economy
?当最终产品数量不只一种时，实际GDP必须定
义成所有最终产品产出的加权平均。这就导致
一个问题：权重应该时多少？
When there is more than one final good, real
GDP must be defined as a weighted average of
the output of all final goods, which brings the
question of what the weights should be.
?物品的相对价格看起来是理所应当的权重。
Relative prices of the goods would appear to be
the natural weights.
5
名义和实际GDP：多产品经济
Nominal and Real GDP:
Multi-Good Economy
?不过，如果相对价格随时间改变（这种情况经常发生
），又该怎么办？
What if, as often the case, relative prices change over
time?
?固定一年（基年）的相对价格作为权重
Choose the relative prices in a given year (base year) as weights
?权重随时间改变Change the weights over time
?在美国国民收入帐户中，实际GDP的衡量指标被称作
以环比（1992）美元衡量的实际GDP，为后者的一种
形式。
The measure of real GDP in the U.S. national income
accounts is called real GDP in chained (1992) dollars, a
form of the latter.
美国的名义与实际GDP
Real U.S. GDP
名义和实际的同义词
Synonyms of Nominal and Real GDP
?名义GDP(表示为$Y
t
) Nominal GDP
?美元GDP dollar GDP
?以现价衡量的GDP GDP in current dollars
?实际GDP(表示为Y
t
) Real GDP
?以实物衡量的GDP GDP in terms of goods
?以不变价衡量的GDP GDP in constant
dollars
?通货膨胀调整的GDP GDP adjusted for
inflation
GDP增长
GDP Growth
? GDP在第t年的增长率是指实际GDP在第t年的
变化率。
GDP growth in year t will refer to the rate of
change of real GDP in year t.
GDP growth (%) = 100%*(Y
t
-Y
t-1
)/Y
t-1
GDP增长
GDP Growth
? GDP正增长的时期被成为扩张期。
Periods of positive GDP growth are called
expansion.
? GDP负增长的时期被称作衰退期。
Periods of negative GDP growth are called
recession.
?只在经济至少持续两个季度负增长时才用这个词。
Macroeconomists usually use the word only if the
economy goes through at least two consecutive
quarters of negative growth.
实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格
Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the
Price of Computers
?计算实际GDP的一个棘手问题是如何对待已有
物品的质量变化。尤其是计算机。
A tough problem in computing real GDP is
dealing with changes in quality in existing
goods. One of the most difficult cases is
computers.
?我们能够假设1999年的一台个人计算机和1987
年的计算机是同样的产品吗？
Should we assume that a personal computer in
1999 is the same good as a computer produced
in 1987?
6
实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格
Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the
Price of Computers
?经济学家用来调整这些质量改进的办法，是观察在给
定年份中，市场如何对具有不同特征的计算机做出评
价。
The approach used by economists to adjust for these
improvements is to look at how the market values
computers with different characteristics in a given
year.
?这一方法将物品看成提供了一系列特征（这里是速度
、存储等）的组合，每一特征有一个隐含的价格，因
此被称为享受定价。
This approach, which treats goods as providing a
collection of characteristics (here speed, memory, and
so on) each with an implicit price, is called hedonic
pricing.
实际GDP，技术进步与计算机价格
Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the
Price of Computers
?使用这一方法，（美国）商务部估计，自1987年以来
，新计算机的质量每年平均上升15％。
Using this approach, the Department of Commerce
estimates that the quality of new computers has
increased on average 15% a year since 1987.
?虽然计算机的货币价格在同一时期每年下降10％，其
经质量调整的价格每年下降15%+10%=25% 。
Although the dollar price of computers has declined by
about 10% a year since 1987, their quality adjusted
price has fallen at an average rate of 15%+10%=25%
per year.
失业率
Unemployment Rate
?失业率被定义成失业人数与劳动力之比。
The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio
of the number of unemployed to the labor force
?劳动力被定义成就业人数与失业人数之和。
The labor force is defined as the sum of those
employed and those unemployed.
U =U/L
Unemployment rate = unemployed/labor force
失业率＝失业人数/劳动力
L = N + U
Labor force = employed + unemployed
劳动力＝就业人数＋失业人数
什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？
What determines whether a worker is
counted as unemployed?
?美国在1940 年、其他国家在更近以前，在失业办公室
登记的人数是失业数据的唯一可得的来源。
Until the 1940s in the United States, and more recently
in other countries, the number of people registered at
unemployment office was the only available source of
data on unemployment.
?那些没有激励进行登记的人不被计入。
Those who had no incentive to register were not
counted.
?福利体系不够慷慨的国家，失业者就更有可能不去登
记，测量到的失业率就更小。
Countries with less generous benefit systems were
likely to have fewer unemployed registering, and
therefore smaller measured unemployment rates.
什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？
What determines whether a worker is
counted as unemployed?
?今天，许多国家依靠大规模的家计调查来计算
失业率。
Today, most countries rely on large surveys of
households to compute the unemployment rate.
?在美国，这一调查被称作当前人口调查。
In the United States, this survey is called the
Current Population Survey (CPS).
?该调查基于每月对6万户家庭的访谈。
It relies on interviews of 60,000 households
every month.
什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？
What determines whether a worker is
counted as unemployed?
?如果在过去的四个星期内，一个人没有工作，而且一
直在寻找工作，这一调查就把他（她）归入失业者。
The survey classifies a person as unemployed if he or
she does not have a job and has been looking for work
in the last four weeks.
?那些没有工作但也没有在找工作的被记入非劳动力。
Those not working and not looking for work are
counted as not in the labor force.
?当失业率很高时，那些没有工作的人放弃了找工作，
因而不被计入失业者。这些人被称作气馁的工人。
When unemployment is high, some of those without
jobs give up looking for work and therefore are no
longer counted as unemployed. These people are
known as discouraged workers.
7
什么决定一个工人是否被算作失业者？
What determines whether a worker is
counted as unemployed?
?一个更高的失业率通常和一个更低的参
工率相联系。参工率是劳动力与工作年
龄的总人口的比率。
A higher unemployment rate is typically
associate with a lower participation rate,
defined as the ratio of the labor force to
the total population of working age.
为什么要关心失业率？
Why Care about Unemployment?
?宏观经济学家关心失业率有两个原因：
Macroeconomists care about
unemployment for two main reasons:
?失业率告诉他们一个经济是否运行在其正常
水平上。
The unemployment rate tells them
something about whether an economy is
operating above or below its normal level.
?失业率有重要的社会后果。
Unemployment has important social
consequences.
失业与经济活动
Unemployment and Activity
?在大多数国家，失业率变化与GDP增长之间都有一个
清晰的关系。
In most countries, there is a clear relation between the
change in unemployment and GDP growth.
?这一关系被称作奥肯定律。
This relation is known as Okun’s law.
?它表示高的产出增长率通常与失业率的下降相联系，
低的产出增长率与失业率的上升相联系。
It shows that high output growth is typically associated
with a decrease in the unemployment rate, and low
output growth is associated with an increase in the
unemployment rate.
奥肯定律
Okun’s Law
失业与经济活动
Unemployment and Activity
?如果当前失业率过高，就需要通过一段时期更高的增
长来加以降低。
If the current unemployment rate is too high, it will
take a period of higher growth to reduce it.
?如果相反的，失业率比较合适，那么产出应该维持在
与一个不变的失业率相当的增长率上。
If, instead, the unemployment rate is about right, then
output should grow at the rate that is consistent with
an unchanged unemployment rate.
?因此，失业率为宏观经济学家提供了一个信号，以判
断经济处于何等位置，怎样的增长率是合意的。
The unemployment rate therefore provides
macroeconomists with a signal of where the economy
stands and what growth rate might be desirable.
失业的社会影响
Social Implications of Unemployment
?宏观经济学家关心失业的另一个理由是它对于失业者
福利的直接影响。
Macroeconomists also care about unemployment
because its direct effects on the welfare of the
unemployed.
?失业总是与金钱与心理的苦难相联系。
Unemployment is associated with financial and
psychological suffering.
?一些群体（年轻人、少数族裔和非熟练工人）从失业
中受到更大的损害。
Some groups (often the young, the ethnic minorities,
and the unskilled) suffer disproportionately from
unemployment.
8
通货膨胀率
Inflation Rate
?通货膨胀是一般价格水平的持续上升。
Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of
prices, a sustained rise in the price level.
?通货膨胀率（通胀率）是价格水平上升的速度。
The inflation rate is the rate at which the price
level increases.
?宏观经济学家通常看两种衡量价格水平的指标或
价格指数：GDP平减指数和消费价格指数。
Macroeconomists typically look at two measures of
the price level, at two price indexes: the GDP
deflator and the consumer price index.
GDP平减指数
The GDP Deflator
?第t年的GDP平减指数P
t
被定义成第t年的名义GDP与
实际GDP的比率。
The GDP deflator in year t , P
t
, is defined as the ratio
of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t:
?这样，名义GDP等于GDP平减指数乘以实际GDP。
Thus nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times
real GDP.
P
t
=
nominal GDP
t
Real GDP
t
$Y
t
Y
t
=
$Y
t
= P
t
Y
t
GDP平减指数
The GDP Deflator
GDP平减指数是一个指数。
The GDP deflator is an index number.
?它的水平值是人为选定的，没有经济含义。
Its level is chosen arbitrarily and has no economic
interpretation.
?但是它的变化率有一个明确的经济含义：它给出了
一般价格水平随时间上升的速度——通货膨胀率。
But its rate of change has a clear economic
interpretation: It gives the rate at which the general
level of prices goes up over time – the rate of
inflation.
消费价格指数
The Consumer Price Index
? GDP平减指数给出了GDP中包括的物品——经济中生产的最终物
品——的平均价格。
The GDP deflator gives the average price of the goods included in
GDP – the final goods produced in the economy.
?消费者关心的是他们消费的物品的平均价格。
Consumers care about the average price of the goods they
consume.
?两种价格未必相同The two prices need not to be the same:
? GDP中的某些物品没有卖给消费者，而是卖给了企业（例如机器）
、政府或者外国人。
Some of the goods in GDP are sold not to consumers but to firms (e.g.,
machine tools), to the government, or to foreigners.
?消费者购买的一些物品不是国内生产的，而是从国外进口的。
Some of the goods bought by consumers are not produced at home,
but rather imported from abroad.
消费价格指数
The Consumer Price Index
?为了测量消费的平均价格，或者说，生活费用
，宏观经济学家观察另一个指数——消费价格
指数（CPI）。
To measure the average price of consumption,
or equivalently, the cost of living,
macroeconomists look at another index, the
consumer price index (CPI).
? CPI给出了不同时期给定清单的物品和服务以
货币单位衡量的费用。
The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific
list of goods and services over time.
消费价格指数
The Consumer Price Index
?这一清单基于对消费者支出的细致研究，旨在代表一
个典型的城市（农村）消费者的消费。
The list, which is based on a detailed study of consumer
spending, attempts to represent the consumption of a
typical urban consumer.
?这一清单每10年修订1次（中国：5年大调，每年微调
。）
It is revised every 10 years.
?每个月，劳工统计据的雇员都要调查商店，以搜集列
在清单上的物品的价格。
Each month, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
employees visit stores to collect prices of the goods on
the list.
9
计算消费者价格指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
第1步：调查消费者以确定一个固定的物品篮子
Step 1:Survey Consumers to Determine a Fixed
Basket of Goods
4 hot dogs, 2 hamburgers
4个热狗，2个汉堡
计算消费者价格指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
Year
Price of
Hot dogs
Price of
Hamburgers
2001 $1 $2
2002 $2 $3
2003 $3 $4
第2步：找到每一年每种物品的价格
Step 2: Find the Price of Each Good in Each Year
年份
热狗
价格
汉堡
价格
计算消费者价格指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
2001 ($1 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($2 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $8
2002 ($2 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($3 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $14
2003 ($3 per hot dog x 4 hot dogs) + ($4 per hamburger x 2 hamburgers) = $20
第3步：计算每一年这一篮子物品的费用
Step 3: Compute the Cost of the Basket of Goods in
Each Year
热狗汉堡
计算消费者价格指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
第4步：选择一年作为基年（2001）
并计算各年的消费者价格指数
Step 4: Choose One Year as the Base Year (2001) and
Compute the Consumer Price Index in Each Year
2001 ($8/$8) x 100 = 100
2002 ($14/$8) x 100 = 175
2003 ($20/$8) x 100 = 250
计算消费者价格指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子
Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the
Inflation Rate: An Example
2002
(175-100)/100 x 100 = 75%
2003
(250-175)175 x 100 = 43%
第5步：使用消费者价格指数来计算相对上一年的通货膨胀率
Step 5: Use the Consumer Price Index to Compute the
Inflation Rate from Previous Year
使用CPI和GDP平减指数的通货膨胀率
Inflation Rate using the CPI and the GDP
deflator
10
通货膨胀与失业
Inflation and Unemployment
?通货膨胀与产出或失业之间确实存在一定的关系。但
这种关系并不固定，而是随时间和国家而不同。
There is a relation between inflation and either output
or unemployment, but it is far from mechanical – it
varies across time and country.
?美国自1979年以来，失业率与通胀的变化之间表现出
一种负相关关系。
In the U.S. since 1970, there is a negative relation
between the unemployment rate and the change in
inflation.
?这一负相关关系被称作菲利普斯关系，相应的曲线就
是菲利普斯曲线。
This negative relation is called the Phillips relation, and
the curve is called the Phillips Curve.
通货膨胀与失业
Inflation and Unemployment
为什么经济学家会关心通胀？
Why Do Economists Care About
Inflation?
?如果更高的通货膨胀仅仅意味着所有价格和工
资成比例上升得更快——所谓纯粹通货膨胀—
—通胀只会带来小小的麻烦。
If higher inflation meant just a faster
proportional increase in all prices and wage – a
case call pure inflation – inflation would be only
a minor inconvenience.
?工人的实际工资——以物品而非货币衡量的工
资——将会保持不变。
The workers’ real wage –the wage measured in
terms of goods rather than in dollars – would
remain the same.
为什么经济学家会关心通胀？
Why Do Economists Care About
Inflation?
?经济学家关心通胀恰是因为天下没有纯粹的通
胀。
Economists care about inflation precisely
because there is no such thing as pure inflation.
?在通胀期间，由于并非所有的价格和工资同比
例上升，通胀影响了收入分配。
During period of inflation, because not all
prices and wages rise proportionately, inflation
affects income distribution.
?在许多国家，退休者的收入不随价格水平调整。
Retirees in many country receive payments that do
not keep up with the price level.
为什么经济学家会关心通胀？
Why Do Economists Care About
Inflation?
?通胀还会导致扭曲。
Inflation also leads to distortions.
?一些价格由于被法律固定或者受到管制，比其他价格
调整得更缓慢，这就导致了相对价格变动。
Some prices, which are fixed by law or by regulation,
lag behind the others, leading to changes in relative
prices.
?如果税收档次不随通胀调整，当名义收入增加时，人
们就会进入更高的税收档次，即使实际收入不变。这
被称为税级潜移。
If tax brackets are not adjusted for inflation, people
move into higher tax brackets as their nominal income
increases, even if their real income remains the same.
This is known as bracket creep.
为什么经济学家会关心通胀？
Why Do Economists Care About
Inflation?
?相对价格的变动也会导致更大的不确定
性，使得企业更难做出关于未来的决策
，例如投资决策。
Variation in relative prices also lead to
more uncertainty, making it harder for
firms to make decisions about the future,
such as investment decision.
11
为什么经济学家会关心通胀？
Why Do Economists Care About
Inflation?
经济学家认为高通胀影响了收入分配，造
成了扭曲与不确定性。
Economists see high inflation as affecting
income distribution, and creating both
distortions and uncertainty.
中国的主要宏观经济变量
?国内生产总值
?就业与失业
?价格指数
中国的国内生产总值（GDP）
?中国的国内生产总值的统计以生产法（
增加值法）为主。
?年度支出法（以后讲到）核算也同时进
行，作为验证的依据。
?没有公布完整的收入法核算结果。
中国的国内生产总值（GDP）
? GDP数据按季度（累计数）和年度由国家统计
据公布。
?季度数据的发布（生产法，季后17-20日）：
?季度新闻发布会
?国家统计局网站：www.stats.gov.cn
?《中国经济景气月报》
?年度数据的发布（生产法和支出法）
?《统计公报》（次年2月）
?《中国统计年鉴》（次年8月出版）
对中国GDP数据
可靠性的质疑
?质疑的依据
?统计关系异常：地方之和大于全国
?经济变量的经验关系异常：发电量对GDP的弹性
?可能的原因
? “技术性”问题
?全面调查vs. 抽样调查
?实际（不变价）GDP计算中的价格问题
?服务业核算薄弱
? “真实性”问题
?某些统计数据容易受到某些地方的干扰
中国失业率的衡量
?我国目前官方公布的失业率衡量指标是城镇登记失业
率：
城镇登记失业率=
城镇登记失业人数/（（城镇单位就业人员-使用的农村劳动力-
聘用的离退休人员-聘用的港澳台及外方人员）+不在岗职工+
城镇私营业主+城镇个体户主+城镇私营企业及个体就业人员+
城镇登记失业人数）
?城镇登记失业人数由劳动与社会保障部
（www.molss.gov.cn）负责收集。
?目前可获得的是季度和年度数据。
?见《中国经济景气月报》、《统计公报》、《中国统计年鉴
》和《中国劳动统计年鉴》。
12
中国失业率衡量
的基本问题
一般认为，中国失业率明显被低估了。
?登记失业率未考虑失业但未登记的工人。
?下岗职工(laid-off workers)不记入失业者，
而却记入了劳动力。
?2004年末下岗职工总数为421万，而同时的城镇
登记失业人数为800万。
?没有考虑农村剩余劳动力。
中国价格水平的衡量
?生产价格统计
?工业品出厂价格指数
?原材料、燃料、动力购进价格指数
?固定资产投资价格指数
?农业生产资料价格指数
?农产品生产价格指数
?消费价格统计
?居民消费价格指数（CPI），又分为城市、农村CPI
?商品零售价格指数
?其他
?房地产价格指数：包括房屋销售价格指数、土地交易价格指
数和房屋租赁价格指数
?不给出GDP平减指数，需要根据名义和实际GDP进行
推算。
中国价格水平的衡量：CPI
?各类价格统计的主要部门是国家统计局城市社
会经济调查总队和农村社会经济调查总队。
? CPI的权重来源于11万城市和农村住户家庭支
出调查资料。包含八大类、251个基本分类、
约700个指数商品或服务项目。
?价格调查人员现场定期采集指数商品的价格，
并最终计算CPI。
?按月公布（次月13日左右）。
什么决定总产出水平？
What Determines the Level of
Aggregate Output?
?在短期内，例如几年，产出的逐年变动主要受
需求的驱动。
In the short run, say, a few years or so, year-to
year movements in output are primarily driven
by movements in demand.
?需求的变动可能来自消费者信心的变动或其他
，这可能导致产出的变动。
Changes in demand, which can arise from
changes in consumer confidence or from any
other sources, can lead to changes in output.
什么决定总产出水平？
What Determines the Level of
Aggregate Output?
?在中期内，例如一、二十年，经济倾向于回到
由供给要素决定的产出水平：资本存量、技术
和劳动力规模。
In the medium run, say, a decade or two, the
economy tends to return to the level of output
determined by supply factors: the capital stock,
technology, and the size of the labor force.
?在一、二十年内，这些要素不会发生大的变化
，把它们视为既定应无大碍。
Over a decade or two, these factors do not
move so much that it is a mistake to take them
as given.
什么决定总产出水平？
What Determines the Level of
Aggregate Output?
?在长期内，例如五十年或更长，技术、资本和
技能都不能看成给定的。
In the long run, say, a half century or more,
neither technology, nor capital, nor skills are
given.
?我们必须关注教育体系、储蓄率和政府作用这
些因素，来理解产出的决定因素。
We must look at factors as the education
system, the saving rate, and the role of
government to understand what determines
output.
13
总结
Summary
?我们可以从三个等价的角度来看GDP——总产
出的衡量指标：
We can think of GDP, the measure of aggregate
activity, in three equivalent ways：
? GDP是生产的最终产品与服务的价值
GDP is the value of the final goods and services
produced
? GDP是增加值之和
GDP is the sum of value added
? GDP是收入之和
GDP is the sum of incomes
总结
Summary
?名义GDP等于生产的最终产品的数量乘以其当前价格
再求和。
Nominal GDP is equal to the sum of the quantities of
final goods produced times their current price.
?这意味着名义GDP的变化同时反映了数量和价格的变
化。This implies that changes in nominal GDP reflect
both changes in quantities and changes in prices.
?实际GDP是产出的度量。实际GDP的变化只反映了数
量的变化。
Real GDP is a measure of output. Changes in real GDP
reflect changes in quantities only.
总结
Summary
?劳动力被定义成就业者与失业者之和。
The labor force is defined as the sum of those
employed and those unemployed.
?失业率被定义成失业人数与劳动力人数之比。
The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio
of the number of unemployed to the labor
force.
?如果一个人在过去的四周内没有工作而且一直
在找工作，他（她）就被归入失业者。
Somebody is classified as unemployed if he or
she does not have a job and has been looking
for work in the last four weeks.
总结
Summary
? GDP增长与失业率变动之间经验关系被称作奥
肯定律。
The empirical relation between GDP growth
and the change in the unemployment rate is
called Okun’s law.
?这一关系说明高的产出增长与失业率下降相联
系。
The relation shows that high output growth is
associated with a decrease in the
unemployment rate.
总结
Summary
?通货膨胀是价格水平的普遍上升。通胀率是价格水平上升
的速度。
Inflation is a rise in the general level of price. The inflation
rate is the rate at which the price level increases.
?宏观经济学家关注价格水平的两种衡量指标：GDP平减指
数和消费价格指数。
Macroeconomists look at two measures of the price level: the
GDP deflator and the Consumer price index (CPI).
? GDP平减指数给出了经济中所生产物品的平均价格。
The GDP deflator gives the average price of goods produced
in the economy.
? CPI给出了经济中所消费物品的平均价格。
The CPI gives the average price of goods consumed in the
economy.
总结
Summary
?通胀率与失业率之间的经验关系被称作菲利普斯曲线
The empirical relation between the inflation rate and
the unemployment rate is called the Phillips curve.
?这一关系因时因地而不同。
This relation has changes over time, and also varies
across countries.
?在今天的美国，它表现为：当失业率很低时，通胀率
趋于上升。
In the U.S. today, it takes the following form: When the
unemployment rate is low, inflation tends to increase.
14
总结
Summary
?通货膨胀导致收入分配改变，加剧扭曲
和不确定性。
Inflation leads to changes in income
distribution, and increases distortions
and uncertainty.
总结
Summary
?宏观经济学家区分短期（几年）、中期（一、、二十
年）和长期（五十年或更长）。
Macroeconomists distinguish between the short run (a
few year), the medium run (a decade or two), and the
long run (a half century or more.)
?他们认为产出在短期内由需求决定，在中期内由技术
、资本存量和劳动力决定，在长期内由教育、研究、
储蓄和政府质量等要素决定。
They think of output as being determined by demand
in the short run, by the level of technology, the capital
stock, and the labor force in the medium run, and by
factors such as education, research, saving, and the
quality of government in the long run.
