17-1
第 17章宏观经济分析和行业分析
Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis
17-2
宏观经济分析和行业分析
Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis
17.1 全球经济
17.2 国内宏观经济
17.3 需求和供给的冲击
17.4 政府政策
17.5 经济周期
17.6 行业分析
17-3
基本面分析 Fundamental Analysis
基本面分析研究
Approach to Fundamental Analysis
– 国内和全球经济分析
Domestic and global economic analysis
– 行业分析 Industry analysis
– 公司分析 Company analysis
为什么用自上而下的研究方法
Why use the top-down approach
分析框架
Framework of Analysis
17-4
全球经济
Global Economic
不同国家和地区的经济表现是有很大不同的
Performance in countries and regions is
highly variable
政治风险 Political risk
汇率风险 Exchange rate risk
– 卖价 Sales
– 利润 Profits
– 股票收益 Stock returns
17-5
关键经济指标
Key Economic Variables
国内生产总值 Gross domestic product
失业率 Unemployment rates
利息率和通货膨胀率 Interest rates & inflation
预算赤字 Budget Deficits
消费者的心理因素 Consumer sentiment
17-6
联邦政府政策
Federal Government Policy
财政政策 – 政府开支和税收行为
Fiscal policy - government spending and
taxing actions
–直接政策 Direct policy
–实施缓慢 Slowly implemented
17-7
联邦政府政策
Federal Government Policy (cont.)
货币政策 – 控制货币的供应量来影响经济政策
Monetary Policy - manipulation of the
money supply to influence economic
activity
– 初始效应和反馈效应
Initial & feedback effects
17-8
联邦政府政策
Federal Government Policy (cont.)
货币政策工具 Tools of monetary policy
– 公开市场操作 Open market operations
– 再贴现率 Discount rate
– 准备金率 Reserve requirements
17-9
需求冲击
Demand Shocks
需求冲击 - 影响对经济领域中商品和服务需求的事件
Demand shock - an event that affects
demand for goods and services in the
economy
– 降低税率
Tax rate cut
– 增加政府开支
Increases in government spending
17-10
供应冲击 -影响生产能力或生产成本的事件
Supply shock - an event that influences
production capacity or production costs
– 商品价格的变化
Commodity price changes
– 经济参与者的教育水平
Educational level of economic participants
供应冲击
Supply Shocks
17-11
商业周期
Business Cycles
商业周期 Business Cycle
– 波峰 Peak
– 波谷 Trough
商业周期的产业关系
Industry relationship to business cycles
– 周期性行业 Cyclical
– 防守性行业 Defensive
17-12
先行指标 - 在经济中预先上升和下降的经济指标
Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in
advance of the economy
例如 Examples
– 制造业工人平均周工作时数
Avg,weekly hours of production workers
– 股票价格 Stock Prices
国会委员会的周期指标：先行指标
NBER Cyclical Indicators,Leading
17-13
同步指标 - 直接与经济有关的同步变化的指标
Coincident Indicators - indicators that tend to
change directly with the economy
Examples
– 工业产量 Industrial production
– 制造业销售额 Manufacturing and trade sales
国会委员会的周期指标：同步指标
NBER Cyclical Indicators,Coincident
17-14
滞后指标 -落后与经济表现的有关指标
Lagging Indicators - indicators that tend to follow the
lag economic performance
Examples
– 存货占销售收入的比例
Ratio of trade inventories to sales
– 分期付款式消费信贷余额与个人收入的比例
Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income
国会委员会的周期指标：滞后指标
NBER Cyclical Indicators,Lagging
17-15
行业分析
Industry Analysis
对经济周期的敏感性
Sensitivity to business cycles
行业分类 Sector Rotation
行业生命周期 Industry life cycles
17-16
对经济周期的敏感性
Sensitivity to Business Cycle
经济周期中影响收益敏感性的因素
Factors affecting sensitivity of earnings
to business cycles
–经济周期中公司产品销售额的敏感性
Sensitivity of sales of the firm’s
product to the business cycles
–营业扛杆 Operating leverage
–财务扛杆 Financial leverage
17-17
行业分类
Sector Rotation
用经济周期中的阶段来选择行业界线
Selecting Industries in line with the stage of the
business cycle
波峰 -自资源公司 Peak – natural resource firms
合同 -防守性公司 Contraction – defensive firms
波谷 -设备，交通和建造公司
Trough – equipment,transportation and
construction firms
膨胀 -周期性行业
Expanding – cyclical industries
17-18
行业生命周期
Industry Life Cycles
阶段 Stage 买卖 增长 Sales Growth
创业阶段 快速增长
Start-up Rapid & Increasing
成长阶段 稳定
Consolidation Stable
成熟阶段 慢
Maturity Slowing
相对衰退阶段 减小或亏损
Relative Decline Minimal or Negative
17-19
Summary
宏观经济政策的目标是使经济在零失业率附近运行，并不致引发通货膨胀的压力。
这两个目标之间的权衡是争论的焦点。
Macroeconomic policy aims to maintain the
economy near full employment without
aggravating inflationary pressures,The
proper trade-off between these two goals
is a source of ongoing debate.
17-20
Summary
宏观经济政策的传统工具是包括政府购买和税收在内的财政政策以及调整货币供给的货币政策。扩张的财政政策能够刺激经济并提高 GDP，
但也会使利率升高。扩张的货币政策能通过降低利率而使经济得到扩张。
The traditional tools of macropolicy are government
spending and tax collection,which comprise fiscal
policy,and manipulation of the money supply via
monetary policy,Expansionary fiscal policy can
stimulate the economy and increase GDP but tends
to in- crease interest rates,Expansionary monetary
policy works by lowering interest rates,
17-21
Summary
经济周期是指经济往复不断的扩张 -衰退过程。由于先行经济指标的变化会早于其他经济变量，所以它可以用来预测经济周期的变化。
The business cycle is the economy’s recurring
pattern of expansions and recessions,Leading
economic indicators can be used to anticipate
the evolution of the business cycle because
their values tend to change before those of
other key economic variables.
17-22
Summary
每个行业对经济周期的敏感度都不同。高敏感度的行业一般是那些生产高价耐用品的厂商，因为消费者可以选择购买此种商品的具体时机，例如汽车工业或耐用消费品行业。另外，为其他厂商生产资本品或设备的行业也属于敏感性的行业。营业杠杆度和融资杠杆度也会提高厂商对经济周期的敏感度。
Industries differ in their sensitivity to the business cycle,More
sensitive industries tend to be those producing high-priced
durable goods for which the consumer has consider- able
discretion as to the timing of purchase,Examples are
automobiles or consumer durables,Other sensitive industries
are those that produce capital equipment for other firms,
Operating leverage and financial leverage increase sensitivity
to the business cycle.
第 17章宏观经济分析和行业分析
Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis
17-2
宏观经济分析和行业分析
Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis
17.1 全球经济
17.2 国内宏观经济
17.3 需求和供给的冲击
17.4 政府政策
17.5 经济周期
17.6 行业分析
17-3
基本面分析 Fundamental Analysis
基本面分析研究
Approach to Fundamental Analysis
– 国内和全球经济分析
Domestic and global economic analysis
– 行业分析 Industry analysis
– 公司分析 Company analysis
为什么用自上而下的研究方法
Why use the top-down approach
分析框架
Framework of Analysis
17-4
全球经济
Global Economic
不同国家和地区的经济表现是有很大不同的
Performance in countries and regions is
highly variable
政治风险 Political risk
汇率风险 Exchange rate risk
– 卖价 Sales
– 利润 Profits
– 股票收益 Stock returns
17-5
关键经济指标
Key Economic Variables
国内生产总值 Gross domestic product
失业率 Unemployment rates
利息率和通货膨胀率 Interest rates & inflation
预算赤字 Budget Deficits
消费者的心理因素 Consumer sentiment
17-6
联邦政府政策
Federal Government Policy
财政政策 – 政府开支和税收行为
Fiscal policy - government spending and
taxing actions
–直接政策 Direct policy
–实施缓慢 Slowly implemented
17-7
联邦政府政策
Federal Government Policy (cont.)
货币政策 – 控制货币的供应量来影响经济政策
Monetary Policy - manipulation of the
money supply to influence economic
activity
– 初始效应和反馈效应
Initial & feedback effects
17-8
联邦政府政策
Federal Government Policy (cont.)
货币政策工具 Tools of monetary policy
– 公开市场操作 Open market operations
– 再贴现率 Discount rate
– 准备金率 Reserve requirements
17-9
需求冲击
Demand Shocks
需求冲击 - 影响对经济领域中商品和服务需求的事件
Demand shock - an event that affects
demand for goods and services in the
economy
– 降低税率
Tax rate cut
– 增加政府开支
Increases in government spending
17-10
供应冲击 -影响生产能力或生产成本的事件
Supply shock - an event that influences
production capacity or production costs
– 商品价格的变化
Commodity price changes
– 经济参与者的教育水平
Educational level of economic participants
供应冲击
Supply Shocks
17-11
商业周期
Business Cycles
商业周期 Business Cycle
– 波峰 Peak
– 波谷 Trough
商业周期的产业关系
Industry relationship to business cycles
– 周期性行业 Cyclical
– 防守性行业 Defensive
17-12
先行指标 - 在经济中预先上升和下降的经济指标
Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in
advance of the economy
例如 Examples
– 制造业工人平均周工作时数
Avg,weekly hours of production workers
– 股票价格 Stock Prices
国会委员会的周期指标：先行指标
NBER Cyclical Indicators,Leading
17-13
同步指标 - 直接与经济有关的同步变化的指标
Coincident Indicators - indicators that tend to
change directly with the economy
Examples
– 工业产量 Industrial production
– 制造业销售额 Manufacturing and trade sales
国会委员会的周期指标：同步指标
NBER Cyclical Indicators,Coincident
17-14
滞后指标 -落后与经济表现的有关指标
Lagging Indicators - indicators that tend to follow the
lag economic performance
Examples
– 存货占销售收入的比例
Ratio of trade inventories to sales
– 分期付款式消费信贷余额与个人收入的比例
Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income
国会委员会的周期指标：滞后指标
NBER Cyclical Indicators,Lagging
17-15
行业分析
Industry Analysis
对经济周期的敏感性
Sensitivity to business cycles
行业分类 Sector Rotation
行业生命周期 Industry life cycles
17-16
对经济周期的敏感性
Sensitivity to Business Cycle
经济周期中影响收益敏感性的因素
Factors affecting sensitivity of earnings
to business cycles
–经济周期中公司产品销售额的敏感性
Sensitivity of sales of the firm’s
product to the business cycles
–营业扛杆 Operating leverage
–财务扛杆 Financial leverage
17-17
行业分类
Sector Rotation
用经济周期中的阶段来选择行业界线
Selecting Industries in line with the stage of the
business cycle
波峰 -自资源公司 Peak – natural resource firms
合同 -防守性公司 Contraction – defensive firms
波谷 -设备，交通和建造公司
Trough – equipment,transportation and
construction firms
膨胀 -周期性行业
Expanding – cyclical industries
17-18
行业生命周期
Industry Life Cycles
阶段 Stage 买卖 增长 Sales Growth
创业阶段 快速增长
Start-up Rapid & Increasing
成长阶段 稳定
Consolidation Stable
成熟阶段 慢
Maturity Slowing
相对衰退阶段 减小或亏损
Relative Decline Minimal or Negative
17-19
Summary
宏观经济政策的目标是使经济在零失业率附近运行，并不致引发通货膨胀的压力。
这两个目标之间的权衡是争论的焦点。
Macroeconomic policy aims to maintain the
economy near full employment without
aggravating inflationary pressures,The
proper trade-off between these two goals
is a source of ongoing debate.
17-20
Summary
宏观经济政策的传统工具是包括政府购买和税收在内的财政政策以及调整货币供给的货币政策。扩张的财政政策能够刺激经济并提高 GDP，
但也会使利率升高。扩张的货币政策能通过降低利率而使经济得到扩张。
The traditional tools of macropolicy are government
spending and tax collection,which comprise fiscal
policy,and manipulation of the money supply via
monetary policy,Expansionary fiscal policy can
stimulate the economy and increase GDP but tends
to in- crease interest rates,Expansionary monetary
policy works by lowering interest rates,
17-21
Summary
经济周期是指经济往复不断的扩张 -衰退过程。由于先行经济指标的变化会早于其他经济变量，所以它可以用来预测经济周期的变化。
The business cycle is the economy’s recurring
pattern of expansions and recessions,Leading
economic indicators can be used to anticipate
the evolution of the business cycle because
their values tend to change before those of
other key economic variables.
17-22
Summary
每个行业对经济周期的敏感度都不同。高敏感度的行业一般是那些生产高价耐用品的厂商，因为消费者可以选择购买此种商品的具体时机，例如汽车工业或耐用消费品行业。另外，为其他厂商生产资本品或设备的行业也属于敏感性的行业。营业杠杆度和融资杠杆度也会提高厂商对经济周期的敏感度。
Industries differ in their sensitivity to the business cycle,More
sensitive industries tend to be those producing high-priced
durable goods for which the consumer has consider- able
discretion as to the timing of purchase,Examples are
automobiles or consumer durables,Other sensitive industries
are those that produce capital equipment for other firms,
Operating leverage and financial leverage increase sensitivity
to the business cycle.
