18-1
第 18章权益估值
Equity Valuation
18-2
权益估值
Equity Valuation
18.1 比较 估价
18.2 内在价值与市场价格
18.3 股利贴现模型
18.4 市盈率比率
18.5 公司财务与自由现金流方法
18.6 通货膨胀与权益资产评价
18.7 股票市场的总体表现
18-3
基本面股票分析,权益估值模 型
Fundamental Stock Analysis,Models of Equity Valuation
模式的 基本类型 Basic Types of Models
– 资产负债表 模 型 Balance Sheet Models
– 股利贴现模型 Dividend Discount Models
– 市盈率模型 Price/Earning Ratios
估计增长率和机会
Estimating Growth Rates and Opportunities
18-4
内在价值和市场价格
Intrinsic Value and Market Price
内在价值 Intrinsic Value
–自己指派的价值
Self assigned Value
–用多种模型来进行估计
Variety of models are used for estimation
市场价格 Market Price
–全部可能的交易者认可的价值额
Consensus value of all potential traders
18-5
内在价值
Intrinsic Value
股票的每股内在价值用 V0表示，被定义为投资者从股票上所能得到的全部现金回报，包括红利和最终售出股票的损益，是用正确反映了风险调整的利率 k 贴现所得的现值。 根据一年的投资期和一年后 P1＝ 52美元的价格的预测，内在价值为：
The intrinsic value,denoted V0,of a share of stock is
defined as the present value of all cash payments to the
investor in the stock,including dividends as well as the
proceeds from the ultimate sale of the stock,discounted at the
appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate,k,In the case of ABC,
using a one-year investment horizon and a forecast that the
stock can be sold at the end of the year at price P1 $52,the
intrinsic value is
V0＝ (E(D1)＋ E(P1))/(1+k)=(4＋ 52)/1.12 ＝ 50美元
18-6
内在价值和市场价格
Intrinsic Value and Market Price
交易信号 Trading Signal
– 内在价值 >市场价格 买 IV > MP Buy
– 内在价值 <市场价格 卖或卖空 IV < MP Sell or Short
Sell
– 内在价值 = 市场价格 持有 IV = MP Hold or Fairly Priced
18-7
股利贴现模型,一般模型
Dividend Discount Models,General Model
V
D
k
o
t
t
t
( )11
V0 = 股票价值 Value of Stock
Dt = 股利 Dividend
k = 必要收益率 required return
18-8
非增长模型
No Growth Model
V
D
k
o?
保持收益和股利不变的股票
Stocks that have earnings and dividends
that are expected to remain constant
优先股 Preferred Stock
18-9
非增长模型：举例
No Growth Model,Example
E1 = D1 = $5.00
k =,15
V0 = $5.00 /,15 = $33.33
V
D
k
o?
18-10
固定增长模型
Constant Growth Model
Vo
D g
k g
o
( )1
g =固定增长率 constant perpetual growth rate
18-11
固定增长模型：举例
Constant Growth Model,Example
Vo
D g
k g
o
( )1
D0 = $4 k = 15%
D0(1+g) =D1 = $4.32 g = 8%
V0 = 4.32 / (.15 -,08) = $61.71
18-12
估计股利增长率
Estimating Dividend Growth Rates
g R O E b
g =股利增长率 growth rate in dividends
ROE = 公司的权益收益 Return on Equity for the firm
b = 再投资率或留存率
plowback or retention percentage rate
– (1- 股利支付率 1- dividend payout percentage rate)
18-13
多阶段增长率模式
Shifting Growth Rate Model
V D
g
k
D g
k g k
o o
t
t
t
T
T
T?
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
g1 = 第一增长率 first growth rate
g2 = 第二增长率 second growth rate
–T =在 g1方式下的增长周期数 number of
periods of growth at g1
18-14
多阶段增长率模式：举例
Shifting Growth Rate Model,Example
D0 = $2.00 g1 = 20% g2 = 5%
k = 15% T = 3 D1 = 2.40
D2 = 2.88 D3 = 3.46 D4 = 3.63
V0 = D1/(1.15) + D2/(1.15)2 + D3/(1.15)3 +
D4 / (.15 -,05) ( (1.15)3)
V0 = 2.09 + 2.18 + 2.27 + 23.86 = $30.40
18-15
特殊持有期模型
Specified Holding Period Model
0
1
1
2
2
1 1 1
V
D
k
D
k
D P
k
N N
N
( ) ( ) ( )
.,,
PN = 股票在时间 N 时希望出售的价格
the expected sales price for the stock at time N
N = 股票持有的年数
the specified number of years the stock is
expected to be held
18-16
分割价值：增长和非增长成分
Partitioning Value,Growth and No Growth Components
V
E
k
P V G O
P V G O
D g
k g
E
k
o
o
1
11( )
( )
PVGO = 增长机会的现值
=Present Value of Growth Opportunities
E1 = 周期 1的每股收益
=Earnings Per Share for period 1
18-17
分割价值：举例
Partitioning Value,Example
ROE = 20% d = 60% b = 40%
E1 = $5.00 D1 = $3.00 k = 15%
g =,20 x,40 =,08 or 8%
18-18
V
NG V
P V G O
o
o
3
15 08
86
5
15
33
86 33 52
(.,)
$42,
.
$33,
$42,$33,$9,
分割价值：举例
Partitioning Value,Example
Vo = 增长价值 value with growth
NGVo = 非增长成分价值 no growth component value
PVGO =增长成分现值 Present Value of Growth
Opportunities
18-19
市盈率比率
Price Earnings Ratios
市盈率是两因素函数
P/E Ratios are a function of two factors
– 需要的收益率 (k) Required Rates of Return
(k)
– 希望的股利增长 Expected growth in
Dividends
作用 Uses
– 相对价值 Relative valuation
– 广泛应用于行业 Extensive Use in industry
18-20
市盈率：非希望增长
P/E Ratio,No expected growth
P
E
k
P
E k
0
1
0
1
1
E1 – 希望来年的收益 expected earnings for next year
– 在非增长情形下 E1等于 D1 （ E1 is equal to D1 under no
growth）
k - 需要的收益率 required rate of return
18-21
市盈率：非希望增长
P/E Ratio with Constant Growth
P
D
k g
E b
k b R O E
P
E
b
k b R O E
0
1 1
0
1
1
1
( )
( )
( )
b = 留存率 retention ration
ROE = 权益收益率 Return on Equity
18-22
举例：非增长型
Numerical Example,No Growth
E0 = $2.50 g = 0 k = 12.5%
P0 = D/k = $2.50/.125 = $20.00
PE = 1/k = 1/.125 = 8
18-23
增长型举例
Numerical Example with Growth
b = 60% ROE = 15% (1-b) = 40%
E1 = $2.50 (1 + (.6)(.15)) = $2.73
D1 = $2.73 (1-.6) = $1.09
k = 12.5% g = 9%
P0 = 1.09/(.125-.09) = $31.14
PE = 31.14/2.73 = 11.4
PE = (1 -,60) / (.125 -,09) = 11.4
18-24
市盈率分析的缺陷
Pitfalls in Using PE Ratios
会计报告的伸缩性使得收益的计量不准确
Flexibility in reporting makes choice of
earnings difficult
备靠盈利可以给营业收入一个更好的量值号
Pro forma earnings may give a better
measure of operating earnings
太多的可变性问题
Problem of too much flexibility
18-25
其他的估值比例和探讨
Other Valuation Ratios & Approaches
价格对帐面价值 Price-to-book
价格对现金流 Price-to-cash flow
价格对销售收入 Price-to-sales
自由现金流现值 Present Value of Free
Cash Flow
18-26
Summary
公司估值的一种方法是重视公司的账面价值，
这种账面价值不是出现在资产负债表上，就是在调整后反映目前的资产重置成本或清偿价值。
另一种方法是重视预期的未来红利现值。
One approach to firm valuation is to focus on
the firm’s book value,either as it appears on
the balance sheet or as adjusted to reflect
current replacement cost of assets or
liquidation value,Another approach is to focus
on the present value of expected future
dividends.
18-27
Summary
红利贴现模型主张每股股票的价格应该等于以与股票风险相当的利率折现的每 股未来红利的现值。
The dividend discount model holds that the
price of a share of stock should equal the
present value of all future dividends per share,
discounted at an interest rate commensurate
with the risk of the stock.
18-28
Summary
固定增长的红利贴现模型认为，如果预计红利总是以一固定的比率增长，那么股票的内在价值由以下的公式决定：
V0＝ D1/(k-g)
这种形式是在假定固定的 g值下的过分简化的红利贴现模型。在更为复杂的环境下，有更复杂的多级形式模型。当固定增长的假定成立时，该式可以转化成推导股票的市场资本化率的公式：
k＝ D1/P0＋ g
The constant-growth version of the DDM asserts that if dividends are
expected to grow at a constant rate forever,the intrinsic value of the stock
is determined by the formula
V0＝ D1/(k-g)
This version of the DDM is simplistic in its assumption of a constant value
of g,There are more sophisticated multistage versions of the model for
more complex environments,When the constant-growth assumption is
reasonably satisfied and the stock is selling for its intrinsic value,the
formula can be inverted to infer the market capitalization rate for the stock,
k＝ D1/P0＋ g
18-29
Summary
股票市场分析家十分关注公司的市盈率 (P/E)比率，这一比率是市场评估公司增长机会的有用工具。零增长机会的公司的市盈率 (P/E)比率应该正好是资本化率 k的倒数。当增长机会成为整个公司价值越来越重要的组成部分时，市盈率
(P/E)比率将增加。
Stock market analysts devote considerable attention to a
company’s price-to-earnings ratio,The P/E ratio is a
useful measure of the market’s assessment of the firm’s
growth opportunities,Firms with no growth opportunities
should have a P/E ratio that is just the reciprocal of the
capitalization rate,k,As growth opportunities become a
progressively more important component of the total value
of the firm,the P/E ratio will increase.
18-30
Summary
预期收益增长率与公司的预期可获利润率和红利政策有关。它们的关系可表示 如下：
g＝ (新投资的 ROE） × （ 1-红利派出比例）
The expected growth rate of earnings is related
both to the firm’s expected profitability and to its
dividend policy,The relationship can be expressed
as
g =(ROE on new investment) X (1-Dividend
payout ratio)
18-31
Summary
通过将未来投资的股权收益率 (ROE)与市场资本化率 k的比较，你可以将任何红利贴现模型与简单的资本收益模型联系起来。如果两个比率相等，则股票的内在价值降至每股预期收益（ EPS）除以 k。
You can relate any DDM to a simple capitalized
earnings model by comparing the expected ROE
on future investments to the market capitalization
rate,k,If the two rates are equal,then the stock’s
intrinsic value reduces to expected earnings per
share (EPS) divided by k.
18-32
Summary
许多分析家用估计的下一年的每股收益乘以市盈率
(P/E)比率得出股票的估值。 P/E值是通过一些实证的方法获得的，这一方法可能与红利贴现模型的一些形式是一 致的，尽管常常存在差异。
Many analysts form their estimate of a stock’s
value by multiplying their forecast of next year’s
EPS by a P/E multiple derived from some
empirical rule,This rule can be consistent with
some version of the DDM,although often it is not.
18-33
Summary
自由现金流是财务管理中最常用的方法。假定全部是权益融资，
分析家首先估计公司的全部价值为预期未来自由现金流的现值，
然后加上由债务融资产生的避税值,最后减去权益之外的所有其他债权。只要资本化率反映金融杠杆的情况，这种方法与红利贴现模型和资本收益方法是一致的。
The free cash flow approach is the one used most often in
corporate finance,The analyst first estimates the value of the
entire firm as the present value of expected future free cash
flows,assuming all-equity financing,then adds the value of
tax shields arising from debt financing,and finally subtracts
the value of all claims other than equity,This approach will be
consistent with the DDM and capitalized earnings
approaches as long as the capitalization rate is adjusted to
reflect financial leverage.
18-34
Summary
我们在固定增长的红利贴现模型情况下探讨了通货膨胀对股价的影响，虽然传统的理论认为通货膨胀对真实股票收益不造成什么影响，但最近的历史数据表明，通货膨胀与真实股市收益呈强烈的负相关性。引起这种负相关性的原因有以下四种不同的解释：
a,经济“震荡”在引起高通货膨胀的同时降低真实收益。
b,高通货膨胀增加了股票的风险。
c,由于通货膨胀导致的税收体制中的扭曲，降低了真实税后收益和红利。
d,货币“假象”。
We explored the effects of inflation on stock prices in the context of the constant- growth
DDM,Although traditional theory has been that inflation should have a neutral effect on
real stock returns,historical evidence shows a striking negative correlation between
inflation and real stock market returns,There are four different explanations that may
account for this negative correlation:
a,Economic,shocks” that simultaneously produce high inflation and lower real
earnings.
b,Increased riskiness of stocks in a more inflationary environment.
c,Lower real after-tax earnings and dividends attributable to inflation-induced distortions
in the tax system.
d,Money,illusion.”
18-35
Summary
本章介绍的模型可以用来解释与预测整个股市的动态。利率和公司利润是决定股价总体水平的主要宏观经济变量。
The models presented in this chapter can be
used to explain and forecast the behavior of the
aggregate stock market,The key
macroeconomic variables that determine the
level of stock prices in the aggregate are
interest rates and corporate profits,
第 18章权益估值
Equity Valuation
18-2
权益估值
Equity Valuation
18.1 比较 估价
18.2 内在价值与市场价格
18.3 股利贴现模型
18.4 市盈率比率
18.5 公司财务与自由现金流方法
18.6 通货膨胀与权益资产评价
18.7 股票市场的总体表现
18-3
基本面股票分析,权益估值模 型
Fundamental Stock Analysis,Models of Equity Valuation
模式的 基本类型 Basic Types of Models
– 资产负债表 模 型 Balance Sheet Models
– 股利贴现模型 Dividend Discount Models
– 市盈率模型 Price/Earning Ratios
估计增长率和机会
Estimating Growth Rates and Opportunities
18-4
内在价值和市场价格
Intrinsic Value and Market Price
内在价值 Intrinsic Value
–自己指派的价值
Self assigned Value
–用多种模型来进行估计
Variety of models are used for estimation
市场价格 Market Price
–全部可能的交易者认可的价值额
Consensus value of all potential traders
18-5
内在价值
Intrinsic Value
股票的每股内在价值用 V0表示，被定义为投资者从股票上所能得到的全部现金回报，包括红利和最终售出股票的损益，是用正确反映了风险调整的利率 k 贴现所得的现值。 根据一年的投资期和一年后 P1＝ 52美元的价格的预测，内在价值为：
The intrinsic value,denoted V0,of a share of stock is
defined as the present value of all cash payments to the
investor in the stock,including dividends as well as the
proceeds from the ultimate sale of the stock,discounted at the
appropriate risk-adjusted interest rate,k,In the case of ABC,
using a one-year investment horizon and a forecast that the
stock can be sold at the end of the year at price P1 $52,the
intrinsic value is
V0＝ (E(D1)＋ E(P1))/(1+k)=(4＋ 52)/1.12 ＝ 50美元
18-6
内在价值和市场价格
Intrinsic Value and Market Price
交易信号 Trading Signal
– 内在价值 >市场价格 买 IV > MP Buy
– 内在价值 <市场价格 卖或卖空 IV < MP Sell or Short
Sell
– 内在价值 = 市场价格 持有 IV = MP Hold or Fairly Priced
18-7
股利贴现模型,一般模型
Dividend Discount Models,General Model
V
D
k
o
t
t
t
( )11
V0 = 股票价值 Value of Stock
Dt = 股利 Dividend
k = 必要收益率 required return
18-8
非增长模型
No Growth Model
V
D
k
o?
保持收益和股利不变的股票
Stocks that have earnings and dividends
that are expected to remain constant
优先股 Preferred Stock
18-9
非增长模型：举例
No Growth Model,Example
E1 = D1 = $5.00
k =,15
V0 = $5.00 /,15 = $33.33
V
D
k
o?
18-10
固定增长模型
Constant Growth Model
Vo
D g
k g
o
( )1
g =固定增长率 constant perpetual growth rate
18-11
固定增长模型：举例
Constant Growth Model,Example
Vo
D g
k g
o
( )1
D0 = $4 k = 15%
D0(1+g) =D1 = $4.32 g = 8%
V0 = 4.32 / (.15 -,08) = $61.71
18-12
估计股利增长率
Estimating Dividend Growth Rates
g R O E b
g =股利增长率 growth rate in dividends
ROE = 公司的权益收益 Return on Equity for the firm
b = 再投资率或留存率
plowback or retention percentage rate
– (1- 股利支付率 1- dividend payout percentage rate)
18-13
多阶段增长率模式
Shifting Growth Rate Model
V D
g
k
D g
k g k
o o
t
t
t
T
T
T?
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
g1 = 第一增长率 first growth rate
g2 = 第二增长率 second growth rate
–T =在 g1方式下的增长周期数 number of
periods of growth at g1
18-14
多阶段增长率模式：举例
Shifting Growth Rate Model,Example
D0 = $2.00 g1 = 20% g2 = 5%
k = 15% T = 3 D1 = 2.40
D2 = 2.88 D3 = 3.46 D4 = 3.63
V0 = D1/(1.15) + D2/(1.15)2 + D3/(1.15)3 +
D4 / (.15 -,05) ( (1.15)3)
V0 = 2.09 + 2.18 + 2.27 + 23.86 = $30.40
18-15
特殊持有期模型
Specified Holding Period Model
0
1
1
2
2
1 1 1
V
D
k
D
k
D P
k
N N
N
( ) ( ) ( )
.,,
PN = 股票在时间 N 时希望出售的价格
the expected sales price for the stock at time N
N = 股票持有的年数
the specified number of years the stock is
expected to be held
18-16
分割价值：增长和非增长成分
Partitioning Value,Growth and No Growth Components
V
E
k
P V G O
P V G O
D g
k g
E
k
o
o
1
11( )
( )
PVGO = 增长机会的现值
=Present Value of Growth Opportunities
E1 = 周期 1的每股收益
=Earnings Per Share for period 1
18-17
分割价值：举例
Partitioning Value,Example
ROE = 20% d = 60% b = 40%
E1 = $5.00 D1 = $3.00 k = 15%
g =,20 x,40 =,08 or 8%
18-18
V
NG V
P V G O
o
o
3
15 08
86
5
15
33
86 33 52
(.,)
$42,
.
$33,
$42,$33,$9,
分割价值：举例
Partitioning Value,Example
Vo = 增长价值 value with growth
NGVo = 非增长成分价值 no growth component value
PVGO =增长成分现值 Present Value of Growth
Opportunities
18-19
市盈率比率
Price Earnings Ratios
市盈率是两因素函数
P/E Ratios are a function of two factors
– 需要的收益率 (k) Required Rates of Return
(k)
– 希望的股利增长 Expected growth in
Dividends
作用 Uses
– 相对价值 Relative valuation
– 广泛应用于行业 Extensive Use in industry
18-20
市盈率：非希望增长
P/E Ratio,No expected growth
P
E
k
P
E k
0
1
0
1
1
E1 – 希望来年的收益 expected earnings for next year
– 在非增长情形下 E1等于 D1 （ E1 is equal to D1 under no
growth）
k - 需要的收益率 required rate of return
18-21
市盈率：非希望增长
P/E Ratio with Constant Growth
P
D
k g
E b
k b R O E
P
E
b
k b R O E
0
1 1
0
1
1
1
( )
( )
( )
b = 留存率 retention ration
ROE = 权益收益率 Return on Equity
18-22
举例：非增长型
Numerical Example,No Growth
E0 = $2.50 g = 0 k = 12.5%
P0 = D/k = $2.50/.125 = $20.00
PE = 1/k = 1/.125 = 8
18-23
增长型举例
Numerical Example with Growth
b = 60% ROE = 15% (1-b) = 40%
E1 = $2.50 (1 + (.6)(.15)) = $2.73
D1 = $2.73 (1-.6) = $1.09
k = 12.5% g = 9%
P0 = 1.09/(.125-.09) = $31.14
PE = 31.14/2.73 = 11.4
PE = (1 -,60) / (.125 -,09) = 11.4
18-24
市盈率分析的缺陷
Pitfalls in Using PE Ratios
会计报告的伸缩性使得收益的计量不准确
Flexibility in reporting makes choice of
earnings difficult
备靠盈利可以给营业收入一个更好的量值号
Pro forma earnings may give a better
measure of operating earnings
太多的可变性问题
Problem of too much flexibility
18-25
其他的估值比例和探讨
Other Valuation Ratios & Approaches
价格对帐面价值 Price-to-book
价格对现金流 Price-to-cash flow
价格对销售收入 Price-to-sales
自由现金流现值 Present Value of Free
Cash Flow
18-26
Summary
公司估值的一种方法是重视公司的账面价值，
这种账面价值不是出现在资产负债表上，就是在调整后反映目前的资产重置成本或清偿价值。
另一种方法是重视预期的未来红利现值。
One approach to firm valuation is to focus on
the firm’s book value,either as it appears on
the balance sheet or as adjusted to reflect
current replacement cost of assets or
liquidation value,Another approach is to focus
on the present value of expected future
dividends.
18-27
Summary
红利贴现模型主张每股股票的价格应该等于以与股票风险相当的利率折现的每 股未来红利的现值。
The dividend discount model holds that the
price of a share of stock should equal the
present value of all future dividends per share,
discounted at an interest rate commensurate
with the risk of the stock.
18-28
Summary
固定增长的红利贴现模型认为，如果预计红利总是以一固定的比率增长，那么股票的内在价值由以下的公式决定：
V0＝ D1/(k-g)
这种形式是在假定固定的 g值下的过分简化的红利贴现模型。在更为复杂的环境下，有更复杂的多级形式模型。当固定增长的假定成立时，该式可以转化成推导股票的市场资本化率的公式：
k＝ D1/P0＋ g
The constant-growth version of the DDM asserts that if dividends are
expected to grow at a constant rate forever,the intrinsic value of the stock
is determined by the formula
V0＝ D1/(k-g)
This version of the DDM is simplistic in its assumption of a constant value
of g,There are more sophisticated multistage versions of the model for
more complex environments,When the constant-growth assumption is
reasonably satisfied and the stock is selling for its intrinsic value,the
formula can be inverted to infer the market capitalization rate for the stock,
k＝ D1/P0＋ g
18-29
Summary
股票市场分析家十分关注公司的市盈率 (P/E)比率，这一比率是市场评估公司增长机会的有用工具。零增长机会的公司的市盈率 (P/E)比率应该正好是资本化率 k的倒数。当增长机会成为整个公司价值越来越重要的组成部分时，市盈率
(P/E)比率将增加。
Stock market analysts devote considerable attention to a
company’s price-to-earnings ratio,The P/E ratio is a
useful measure of the market’s assessment of the firm’s
growth opportunities,Firms with no growth opportunities
should have a P/E ratio that is just the reciprocal of the
capitalization rate,k,As growth opportunities become a
progressively more important component of the total value
of the firm,the P/E ratio will increase.
18-30
Summary
预期收益增长率与公司的预期可获利润率和红利政策有关。它们的关系可表示 如下：
g＝ (新投资的 ROE） × （ 1-红利派出比例）
The expected growth rate of earnings is related
both to the firm’s expected profitability and to its
dividend policy,The relationship can be expressed
as
g =(ROE on new investment) X (1-Dividend
payout ratio)
18-31
Summary
通过将未来投资的股权收益率 (ROE)与市场资本化率 k的比较，你可以将任何红利贴现模型与简单的资本收益模型联系起来。如果两个比率相等，则股票的内在价值降至每股预期收益（ EPS）除以 k。
You can relate any DDM to a simple capitalized
earnings model by comparing the expected ROE
on future investments to the market capitalization
rate,k,If the two rates are equal,then the stock’s
intrinsic value reduces to expected earnings per
share (EPS) divided by k.
18-32
Summary
许多分析家用估计的下一年的每股收益乘以市盈率
(P/E)比率得出股票的估值。 P/E值是通过一些实证的方法获得的，这一方法可能与红利贴现模型的一些形式是一 致的，尽管常常存在差异。
Many analysts form their estimate of a stock’s
value by multiplying their forecast of next year’s
EPS by a P/E multiple derived from some
empirical rule,This rule can be consistent with
some version of the DDM,although often it is not.
18-33
Summary
自由现金流是财务管理中最常用的方法。假定全部是权益融资，
分析家首先估计公司的全部价值为预期未来自由现金流的现值，
然后加上由债务融资产生的避税值,最后减去权益之外的所有其他债权。只要资本化率反映金融杠杆的情况，这种方法与红利贴现模型和资本收益方法是一致的。
The free cash flow approach is the one used most often in
corporate finance,The analyst first estimates the value of the
entire firm as the present value of expected future free cash
flows,assuming all-equity financing,then adds the value of
tax shields arising from debt financing,and finally subtracts
the value of all claims other than equity,This approach will be
consistent with the DDM and capitalized earnings
approaches as long as the capitalization rate is adjusted to
reflect financial leverage.
18-34
Summary
我们在固定增长的红利贴现模型情况下探讨了通货膨胀对股价的影响，虽然传统的理论认为通货膨胀对真实股票收益不造成什么影响，但最近的历史数据表明，通货膨胀与真实股市收益呈强烈的负相关性。引起这种负相关性的原因有以下四种不同的解释：
a,经济“震荡”在引起高通货膨胀的同时降低真实收益。
b,高通货膨胀增加了股票的风险。
c,由于通货膨胀导致的税收体制中的扭曲，降低了真实税后收益和红利。
d,货币“假象”。
We explored the effects of inflation on stock prices in the context of the constant- growth
DDM,Although traditional theory has been that inflation should have a neutral effect on
real stock returns,historical evidence shows a striking negative correlation between
inflation and real stock market returns,There are four different explanations that may
account for this negative correlation:
a,Economic,shocks” that simultaneously produce high inflation and lower real
earnings.
b,Increased riskiness of stocks in a more inflationary environment.
c,Lower real after-tax earnings and dividends attributable to inflation-induced distortions
in the tax system.
d,Money,illusion.”
18-35
Summary
本章介绍的模型可以用来解释与预测整个股市的动态。利率和公司利润是决定股价总体水平的主要宏观经济变量。
The models presented in this chapter can be
used to explain and forecast the behavior of the
aggregate stock market,The key
macroeconomic variables that determine the
level of stock prices in the aggregate are
interest rates and corporate profits,
