第六讲：如何来评价传统的赶超战略?
（《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第8讲－上）
2,The performance of the leap-forward strategy.
1,The rate of accumulation (table 3.1).
1st FYP (53-57) 24.2
2nd FYP (58-62) 30.8
63-65 22.7
3rd FYP (66-70) 26.3
4th (71-75) 33.0
2,The structure of investment (table 3.2)
A L H O
1st FYP 7.1 6.4 36.2 50.3
2nd FYP 11.3 6.4 54.0 28.3
63-65 17.6 3.9 45.9 32.6
3rd FYP 10.7 4.4 51.1 33.8
4th 9.8 5.8 49.6 34.8
3,The sector weight (table 3.3)
52 57 62 65 70 75
Agri. 57.7 46.8 48.1 46.2 40.4 37.8
Indu. 19.5 28.3 32.8 36.4 41.0 46.0
Other 22.8 24.5 19.2 17.4 18.6 16.2
4,The growth rate (table 3.1)--GDP
1st FYP (53-57) 9.1
2nd FYP (58-62) -2.2
63-65 14.9
3rd FYP (66-70) 6.9
4th (71-75) 5.5
53-78 6.0
5,Sector weight,international comparison,(fig,3.1)
The manufacturing sector is larger than that of a typical middle income country,Figure 3.1.
3,The problem of the leap-forward strategy
1,Structural distortiona,Employment structure,(table 3.4) why? Agr. Ind. Other
52 83.5 6.0 10.5
57 81.2 5.9 12.9
65 81.6 6.4 12.0
78 73.3 12.5 14.2
b,Urbanization (table 3.5)
100 200 300 400 500
22.0 36.2 43.9 49.0 52.7
Chnery and Syrquin,Patterns of Development,1950-70.
China in 1952 12.5
in 1980 19.4
2,Incentive problem
a,Share of working capital in total capital (table 3.9).
China 1981 32.7
India 1979 27.9
Korea 1963 7.0
Japan 1953 19.9
England 1970 12.6
USSR 1972 29.5
Source,World Bank,1984,China Economic Structure in International Perspective.
b,incentive (table 3.8).
The Production of GDP (in 1980 dollars)
Energy Steal Trans
k,Coal/ Ton/ Ton.km/
US$ M.US$ US$
China 2.90 127.3 3.10
India 1.77 98.4 1.67
Korea 1.12 113.8 0.47
Brazil 0.88 57.1 1.40
Japan 0.51 63.0 0.41
France 0.45 30.9
US 1.05 44.8 1.80
England 0.57 30.0
German 0.49 43.7
Source,World Bank,1984,China Economic Structure in International Perspective.
3,The result
a,Low Total Factor Productivity Growth (Table 3.10)
TFP Growth Rate TFP growth in
per annum in GDP growth
China: 1952-81 0.53 (-1.0) 8 (-17)
1952-75 0.3 (-1.1) 5 (-18)
1975-81 1.0 (-0.3) 17 (-5)
Brazil: 1950-60 3.7 54
1955-70 2.1 34
1966-74 1.6 22
Korea: 1955-60 2.0 47
1955-70 5.0 57
1960-73 4.1 42
Spain 1959-65 5.0 44
Japan: 1952-71 3.8 38
1952-64 5.1 53
1966-73 4.5 41
US: 1947-60 1.4 38
1960-73 1.3 30
USSR 1950-60 1.9 32
1960-70 1.5 29
1960-70 1.5 29
1970-75 0.1 3
Average of
19 LDCs 2.0 31
Average of12 market
economies 2.7 49
b,Low living standard index (table 3.6).
Consumption
NI Nation rural urban
1952 100 100 100 100
1957 153.0 122.9 117.0 126.3
1978 453.4 177.0 157.6 212.6
（《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第8讲－上）
2,The performance of the leap-forward strategy.
1,The rate of accumulation (table 3.1).
1st FYP (53-57) 24.2
2nd FYP (58-62) 30.8
63-65 22.7
3rd FYP (66-70) 26.3
4th (71-75) 33.0
2,The structure of investment (table 3.2)
A L H O
1st FYP 7.1 6.4 36.2 50.3
2nd FYP 11.3 6.4 54.0 28.3
63-65 17.6 3.9 45.9 32.6
3rd FYP 10.7 4.4 51.1 33.8
4th 9.8 5.8 49.6 34.8
3,The sector weight (table 3.3)
52 57 62 65 70 75
Agri. 57.7 46.8 48.1 46.2 40.4 37.8
Indu. 19.5 28.3 32.8 36.4 41.0 46.0
Other 22.8 24.5 19.2 17.4 18.6 16.2
4,The growth rate (table 3.1)--GDP
1st FYP (53-57) 9.1
2nd FYP (58-62) -2.2
63-65 14.9
3rd FYP (66-70) 6.9
4th (71-75) 5.5
53-78 6.0
5,Sector weight,international comparison,(fig,3.1)
The manufacturing sector is larger than that of a typical middle income country,Figure 3.1.
3,The problem of the leap-forward strategy
1,Structural distortiona,Employment structure,(table 3.4) why? Agr. Ind. Other
52 83.5 6.0 10.5
57 81.2 5.9 12.9
65 81.6 6.4 12.0
78 73.3 12.5 14.2
b,Urbanization (table 3.5)
100 200 300 400 500
22.0 36.2 43.9 49.0 52.7
Chnery and Syrquin,Patterns of Development,1950-70.
China in 1952 12.5
in 1980 19.4
2,Incentive problem
a,Share of working capital in total capital (table 3.9).
China 1981 32.7
India 1979 27.9
Korea 1963 7.0
Japan 1953 19.9
England 1970 12.6
USSR 1972 29.5
Source,World Bank,1984,China Economic Structure in International Perspective.
b,incentive (table 3.8).
The Production of GDP (in 1980 dollars)
Energy Steal Trans
k,Coal/ Ton/ Ton.km/
US$ M.US$ US$
China 2.90 127.3 3.10
India 1.77 98.4 1.67
Korea 1.12 113.8 0.47
Brazil 0.88 57.1 1.40
Japan 0.51 63.0 0.41
France 0.45 30.9
US 1.05 44.8 1.80
England 0.57 30.0
German 0.49 43.7
Source,World Bank,1984,China Economic Structure in International Perspective.
3,The result
a,Low Total Factor Productivity Growth (Table 3.10)
TFP Growth Rate TFP growth in
per annum in GDP growth
China: 1952-81 0.53 (-1.0) 8 (-17)
1952-75 0.3 (-1.1) 5 (-18)
1975-81 1.0 (-0.3) 17 (-5)
Brazil: 1950-60 3.7 54
1955-70 2.1 34
1966-74 1.6 22
Korea: 1955-60 2.0 47
1955-70 5.0 57
1960-73 4.1 42
Spain 1959-65 5.0 44
Japan: 1952-71 3.8 38
1952-64 5.1 53
1966-73 4.5 41
US: 1947-60 1.4 38
1960-73 1.3 30
USSR 1950-60 1.9 32
1960-70 1.5 29
1960-70 1.5 29
1970-75 0.1 3
Average of
19 LDCs 2.0 31
Average of12 market
economies 2.7 49
b,Low living standard index (table 3.6).
Consumption
NI Nation rural urban
1952 100 100 100 100
1957 153.0 122.9 117.0 126.3
1978 453.4 177.0 157.6 212.6
