Intermediate Macroeconomics
中级宏观经济学
Fall,2004
Instructor
?何茵
?朗润园 620
? Tel,62759485
? Email,yin.he@ccer.pku.edu.cn
? Office hours,Mon,10,30-12,00 &预约
T.A,
?李鹏宇 raining@pku.edu.cn 51638264
?李化松 lisong-nick@pku.edu.cn 51605303
?孙昂
Text books
? Macroeconomics,N,Gregory Mankiw
World Publisher
?,宏观经济学,(第 4版 ) 格里高利 ?曼昆
人民大学出版社,2000年
参考书：《全球视角的宏观经济学,
捷弗里 ·萨科斯等著，费方域等译
上海三联书店 ·上海人民出版社 1997
Grading
? Homework,20%
? Quizzes,20% (Sep,& Nov.)
? Mid-term,25% (Oct.)
? Final,35%
? Extra-credit,5%
(attendance and participation)
Calendar
9.29 Quiz 1
10.1-10.7 National Day
12.15 Last day of class
12.19 Office hours
12.20-12.30 Final
Other issues
? No make-up exam (except for special cases)
?No,Incomplete”
? 9.23-9.25 drop/add
? Special actions (8th week)
Economics
? Jacob Viner (Harvard,1892-1970)
---,a thing that the economists do”
? John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge,1883-1946)
---,an easy subject,at which few excel!”
? Lionel Robbins (Cambridge,1898-1984)
Economics is a science that studies human
behavior as a relationship between ends (wants)
and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use,
Economics
? Studies human behavior
--- Uncertainty
*** It depends… ***
on what? --- factors
Why? --- intuitions
How? --- logic
Conclusions?
Economics
? Should you get married?
Well,it depends,(Yes! You’re right! )
--- the one?
--- she/he want to get married as well?
--- age
--- personality & life style
--- psychological cost
……
Economics
? Should the developing countries liberalize
the foreign investment?
--- What kind?
Portfolio (stock market; financial system)
Direct (form;sectors;areas)
--- What scale?
……
Why learn Macroeconomics
1,The macroeconomy affects society’s well-
being,
2,The macroeconomy affects your well-
being
3,The macroeconomy affects politics
Example (Unemployment)
? Social impact
--- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is
associated with,
? 920 more suicides
? 650 more homicides
? 4000 more people admitted to state mental
institutions
? 3300 more people sent to state prisons
? 37,000 more deaths
? Increases in domestic violence and homelessness
Example (Unemployment)
? Individual impact
--- consumption
--- investment
--- other individual decisions
? Politics
--- election
Contents in Macroeconomics
1,The economy in the long run
2,The economy in the short run
3,Policy debate
4,Open economy policy
5,More microeconomics behind
macroeconomics*
The economy in the LR (Growth)
G D P P e r Ca p i t a U, S, (c o n s t a n t 9 5 U S $ )
0.00E+00
5.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.50E+04
2.00E+04
2.50E+04
3.00E+04
3.50E+04
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
The economy in the LR (Growth)
G D P P e r Ca p i t a Ch i n a (c o n s t a n t 9 5 U S $ )
0.00E+00
2.00E+02
4.00E+02
6.00E+02
8.00E+02
1.00E+03
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
The economy in the LR
(Unemployment)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Year
Unemployment Rate
China
United States
The economy in the LR
(Money and Inflation)
Inflation Rate % (consumer prices)
-10
0
10
20
30
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
Year
China
United States
The Economy in the Short Run
? Introduction to economic fluctuations
? Aggregate Demand
? Aggregate Supply
Policy Debate
? How to make policy in an uncertain world?
1) Should policy be active or passive
2) Should policy be conducted by rule or
by discretion?
? Government debt and budget deficit
1) Ricardian Equivalence
2) Other thoughts about government debt
Government Debt and Budget
Deficit
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
亿元
1978 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000
年份
中国政府财政赤字（亿元）
Government Debt and Budget
Deficit
-3.50E+13
-3.00E+13
-2.50E+13
-2.00E+13
-1.50E+13
-1.00E+13
-5.00E+12
0.00E+00
5.00E+12
1.00E+13
$
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Year
Budget Deficit (U.S.)
Open Economy Policy
? Exchange rate
? The Mundell-Fleming model
? The Small Open Economy (SOE) under
floating exchange rates
? The SOE under fixed exchange rates
? Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?
中级宏观经济学
Fall,2004
Instructor
?何茵
?朗润园 620
? Tel,62759485
? Email,yin.he@ccer.pku.edu.cn
? Office hours,Mon,10,30-12,00 &预约
T.A,
?李鹏宇 raining@pku.edu.cn 51638264
?李化松 lisong-nick@pku.edu.cn 51605303
?孙昂
Text books
? Macroeconomics,N,Gregory Mankiw
World Publisher
?,宏观经济学,(第 4版 ) 格里高利 ?曼昆
人民大学出版社,2000年
参考书：《全球视角的宏观经济学,
捷弗里 ·萨科斯等著，费方域等译
上海三联书店 ·上海人民出版社 1997
Grading
? Homework,20%
? Quizzes,20% (Sep,& Nov.)
? Mid-term,25% (Oct.)
? Final,35%
? Extra-credit,5%
(attendance and participation)
Calendar
9.29 Quiz 1
10.1-10.7 National Day
12.15 Last day of class
12.19 Office hours
12.20-12.30 Final
Other issues
? No make-up exam (except for special cases)
?No,Incomplete”
? 9.23-9.25 drop/add
? Special actions (8th week)
Economics
? Jacob Viner (Harvard,1892-1970)
---,a thing that the economists do”
? John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge,1883-1946)
---,an easy subject,at which few excel!”
? Lionel Robbins (Cambridge,1898-1984)
Economics is a science that studies human
behavior as a relationship between ends (wants)
and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use,
Economics
? Studies human behavior
--- Uncertainty
*** It depends… ***
on what? --- factors
Why? --- intuitions
How? --- logic
Conclusions?
Economics
? Should you get married?
Well,it depends,(Yes! You’re right! )
--- the one?
--- she/he want to get married as well?
--- age
--- personality & life style
--- psychological cost
……
Economics
? Should the developing countries liberalize
the foreign investment?
--- What kind?
Portfolio (stock market; financial system)
Direct (form;sectors;areas)
--- What scale?
……
Why learn Macroeconomics
1,The macroeconomy affects society’s well-
being,
2,The macroeconomy affects your well-
being
3,The macroeconomy affects politics
Example (Unemployment)
? Social impact
--- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is
associated with,
? 920 more suicides
? 650 more homicides
? 4000 more people admitted to state mental
institutions
? 3300 more people sent to state prisons
? 37,000 more deaths
? Increases in domestic violence and homelessness
Example (Unemployment)
? Individual impact
--- consumption
--- investment
--- other individual decisions
? Politics
--- election
Contents in Macroeconomics
1,The economy in the long run
2,The economy in the short run
3,Policy debate
4,Open economy policy
5,More microeconomics behind
macroeconomics*
The economy in the LR (Growth)
G D P P e r Ca p i t a U, S, (c o n s t a n t 9 5 U S $ )
0.00E+00
5.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.50E+04
2.00E+04
2.50E+04
3.00E+04
3.50E+04
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
The economy in the LR (Growth)
G D P P e r Ca p i t a Ch i n a (c o n s t a n t 9 5 U S $ )
0.00E+00
2.00E+02
4.00E+02
6.00E+02
8.00E+02
1.00E+03
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
The economy in the LR
(Unemployment)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Year
Unemployment Rate
China
United States
The economy in the LR
(Money and Inflation)
Inflation Rate % (consumer prices)
-10
0
10
20
30
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
7
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
Year
China
United States
The Economy in the Short Run
? Introduction to economic fluctuations
? Aggregate Demand
? Aggregate Supply
Policy Debate
? How to make policy in an uncertain world?
1) Should policy be active or passive
2) Should policy be conducted by rule or
by discretion?
? Government debt and budget deficit
1) Ricardian Equivalence
2) Other thoughts about government debt
Government Debt and Budget
Deficit
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
亿元
1978 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000
年份
中国政府财政赤字（亿元）
Government Debt and Budget
Deficit
-3.50E+13
-3.00E+13
-2.50E+13
-2.00E+13
-1.50E+13
-1.00E+13
-5.00E+12
0.00E+00
5.00E+12
1.00E+13
$
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Year
Budget Deficit (U.S.)
Open Economy Policy
? Exchange rate
? The Mundell-Fleming model
? The Small Open Economy (SOE) under
floating exchange rates
? The SOE under fixed exchange rates
? Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?
