? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ìa ìa - | ? | ? -r B    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 [ -ù5 ? F$s ¥? ?~yT1 ? ? 3 Z g ? ~ u  ?r B ??C?1? 3ù5 ? ? u? 331?3 pùs/??t ? 3ù5¥ V ?ey??Yy í ??? u8?]í¥r Ba5ù5D??×? 5 ?1 p F í ? ?~  ?¥r B ?s  ?r B¥+?b h F I n?¨ I 1·S ? í ?  ?¥r B ?[#  ?r B¥+?$    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 2002 M ?~ u | gá3 ó -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85+    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 2002 M ?~ u  ??1%h?h ¨ê M ?~ u  ??1%h?h ¨ê h úó a ? ? ?  ?# h ¤?E ??k  U h e 0 j ? p ? ú * p ? ? ? ? ? 1?  P ? p ? % e 9 | ??h q                     9 | ??hêQ              3??h q                     3??hêQ              o??h q                     o??hêQ                 ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ?~ u  ?Y μ§ qM?                                  Mz μ § q a 3 o ?9    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ?~ u  ?S? μ§ qM? [ M Z g | g1S                             Mz S ? μ § q a 3 o ?9    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  M ?~ u8` μ§ f ?           Mz μ § q a ?8 μ§ qa  ? [/8` μ§ qa    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ?~ u  ? ù? p M?       Mz ù ? p  9 3 o    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 60 ?[  o M | ù? p ?r B ù? p  ?[  o M | ù? p ?r B ù? p  3? o? ?9 ù? p  r B ù ? p  ù? p  ? > q    ù? p  r B ù ? p  ù? p  ? > q    ù? p  r B ù ? p  ù? p  ? > q    j   8.66   0.35   8.47 j   10.97   0.38   16.27 j   14.26   0.27   20.73 j   19.48   0.28   27.43 j   27.17   0.51   36.65 # [    35.84   0.56   48.16 M - F    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  M ?~ uò?§? ù? p          ó? l ? ? ¥~ ? ? Fμ? Z ? e ? ú =3 ′? ? B ·? ?? ?U ?  § ? ù? p  M    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?Bc r Bù5¥ ?8C`  ? 3Dy ?]DD?ù i °?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Xís¥ù5 ? I 1 ^r Bù5¥ ?8C`1 I 11ù? ?8C`$ ? ?? ?N ?8¥r Bù5$ ?  ¥·S# ?¨ ? áS | ??1¥r Bù5 ^ I 1$    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?B? ?B? %hDr B %hDr B    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  Br Bù5¥ ?8C` ? "5yT???¥ ^B??h | ?B?h | ^?8?8 r ?B? ? ü ^ ?8 ?h | B ?%h ?μh |  tr Bù 5¥r B |?¥ ?8 μBt  ]¥M ?¥+??1r Bù 5¥ ?8C` ?1r Bù5¥ s? b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  =ù?r Bù5 ?8C` ¥il    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 r B%h ??{ Uim ?4 ? $ Z4 ·S r B %h r B·S %h·S    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 r B%h ??{ r B%h ??{ ? Vr B null%h V[ a1 ^B? ??¥V ?? 1r B%h ??{ (health-- disease continuum, HDC)    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h ?D%h¥ %h ?D%h¥ “b ?C` ”    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h ? %h ? (spectrum of disease) ? %hVe "5VC5xVC? "5VC ?2  ??C¥ ?μVC? T?1%h ?b ?B?h |?]%h¨ VC1% h ??¥B?? Tb ? The full rage of manifestations of a disease from mild or sub-clinical or precursor sates to fulminating, florid disease, or , alternatively, the natural history of a disease from onset to resolution.    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h¥ %h¥ “b ?C` ”(iceberg phenomenon) ? ^· | ?? ??C¥ ?%h r Bù5¥?????]?h r Bù5 ?μVC? T¥? B? s7 ?)?%h? 3??Z H ù¥ | ˉ ? àμ?C± ?Z £? ¥b ?v?s? à £ ?[/b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?b ?¥?U ^ ? M£? 7ó 5%h?? ˉμv ?$?C¥ |? ?úóaa Uhaúó ?a ?a8a? ? ?? ?¥? J27)? ? 7ó5%h¥2B-?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 3r Bù5 ?8C`¥il ? Pá ì "5D 3?? V[ “ A? ? !9 A? ?  ” ? ^ ?N | ?r B¥?1 m  ? YV ?Ws?ù? V[úù?C M1r Bù5¥2By í[# @? ? p|1? |?]n @4 SD ¥G b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ?r BD%h? ·S ¥?1+? 1a uW? ? +? ?μ¥%hr B ?¥ ?N ·S? ^ ?8? ?¤¥b? ??8¥μs ?B?·S?? ^ B? ? 7 ^B? ? S? u Wb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?ar BD%h? ·S¥ ?1+? 2a×?? ?? r B%h ??{ ?á ì?? %hr B ?¥ ?N·SB?? iB? '¥ us?K S    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?ar BD%h? ·S¥ ?1+? 3a VM? ? ?" HW¥M?? | ì a M¥4 úr B?%h¥?  ?N·S ^ V[?M¥b ? ??]¥ | ? ? ?Ba M -a ?Y?r B?%h¥ ?N·S9 ^?]¥b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?  ?8r B¥·S ?  ?8r B¥·S ? μ§ ? %h ? ? > ? ? p  ? í%h p  ? í ? p     ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?=? ?=? r Bù5¥s?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %hs? %hs? (distribution of disease) ? %h?] | ?a?] HWa?] 1 uVC¥?h qa?h qa μ § q?%h ? q¥ ?9?1% h¥ ?Ws? |Wa HW? bW s?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Ba%hs?¥? ·S    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?h q (incidence rate morbidity) ? ·B? ùW = B?1 1 Ma  | ?? h?h èC¥ ? qb B? ùW  | ?? h?h è ? ?h q = aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa ? k ] H ù ] | g ? k" 100 1000/ $ 10000/£ ……    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?h q (incidence ratemorbidity) ?  @?hDù???h q V¨T í ?%h¥s? ? ?Q?%h? 3¥ ? qbYV1? h?] | ? ¥?h q V)?hy í4h yL a ?N]?n @¥rTb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 2?? q (attack rate) ? 9 ^ | ??h è? 3 ? q¥·Sb ?43 ùK V[ °a?a×a1 ?ê a¨? ?1 u%h¥ ? ?. ?ha Jt?y#ˉ<? y??b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?h q ?h q (prevalence rate) ? 9?C? q· +? HW =9 | g?? μ h? ( ????h è ) ?]¥1 èb 43 ùWB? | ??C? h¥??h è ? ?h q = aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa ?k ] ù¥ ü ( | g ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?h q ?h q (prevalence rate) ? 9?C? q· +? HW =9 | g?? μ h? ( ????h è ) ?]¥1 èb ? ùW?h q? H??h q ? ? ?h qYè¨ ?V Uh??é¥ ¤?h¥? 3 @? f ? ?3?hak2??1D  ! @??a9Dy5ê?a? 3 ! @ # | ?¥31 aD é ¥ ??D n ¨¥g |?4 SD¥G b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?h q ?h q (prevalence rate) ? ?h q¥vl | %? ?y í' ?h q?h?b ? ?h q"?h q?h?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ? μ§ q (mortality rate) ? ·B? ùW Yè1 1 M =  | ?? μ? h ( μ? ?μey )¥ ? qb μ§ q ^?  | ? μ§2BK訥·Sb s01 μ§ | ?s  1 V ?? 3 μ§ Yq¥9 | g ? (Yè1 M? | g ? )b  H ù = μ§9 ? μ§ q" aaaaaaaa ?k ] ù ü ( | g ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ? μ§ q (mortality rate) ? μ§ q ^¨??  B H ùa  | ? μ§2 B?vl¥B?·Sb; VQ?B?1 u? ] H ù | ?¥r B ??? 3 ryT¥ £ ü9 V1?1 u? 3 ryT¥3 p?? ?4 SDG b ? Y μ§ q (crude mortality rate) ? μ§ q specific mortality rate) ? ? Age-specific mortalityb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 h μ q h μ q (fatality rate) ? V UB? H ù =? h¥ ??h |?y?h μ§? ?]¥1 èb  H ùy h μ§ | ? h μ q" aaaaaaaaaa ?100 ] ù? h | ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 h μ q h μ q (fatality rate) ? h μ qV U ??%h¥ μ§à q ? VV ü%h¥?×?9 VQ ?D  £ ü?? ? ?¨?$ ?. ?hb¨h μ qT1 ?N?] Dy¥D  £ ü H1?ih |¥ h fah ù? ^? V1b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?? q (secondary attack rate) ? 9?=}?h q· . ?h^? ¤(??K .? ù?Ké .? ù -W?h¥ | ?] ?μ^?¤( ?9 ?¥?s qb ^?¤(???h¥ | ? ?? q" aaaaaaaaaaaa ?100 ^?¤(?9 ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?? q ? B?EVah\a"8 ó a? 8 ?a?8ó?F??B?h è? 3a?hK DKé .? ù- WC¥h è???h èμ H? =}h èbé??? q¥9 ? H?|e?h èVs0#s ? ?"b ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?? q ? ?? q V¨?1?. ?h. ? ? ¥ < Ds. ?h @?y í ? M -a?YaEV?8` ?aEV | g ?aü6Hq?[# ?N? 3]fn @¥rT?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? ? q (infection rate) ? ^·B? HW = ?_°¥ | ?"'? h Cμ? ?? | ? ?]¥1 èb? ? q¥?é D?h qM ?b s_??? | ? ? ? q" aaaaaaaaa ?100 s_ | ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? ? q (infection rate) ? è¨?ù? t. ?h7 3 h¥? ? f ??]íyT¥rT9 h¥ @?? T9 V1??]?n @4G b ? ^ ?N | ?r B ?訥·S+Y ^ *t?? ? ?ahez{# ^?????h è¥?°? 1è¨b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 i q survival rate ? ?? 3i q· ?` ù ˉi¥h è ?D ?] ù ?¥ ??h è ?-1b  ^ t ¤? h ?′?a?ó5h?ù ù r ?N¥×1 ·Sb ?` n Mi¥h è ? n Mi q = aaaaaaaaaaa ? 100% ?` ? n Mh è ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 i q survival rate ? ù?i qA?μ ?`?b n5 ??  ? HW#2 ? HWbB?[ ?? ° ùa m ? ° ùty ° ù1  ? HWb2 ? HWYè[ 5 M 10 M9 ??1 5 Mi q 10 Mi qb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ü ( ù? p   average life expectancy ? ^[C H | gBQ ?°? 짨: ' w ?L?] H 3¥ “B} | ” Yè1 10£ |?v?+? | ?¥ M -F μ§ q5a μ ? ü ( ? | V ?i¥ ? ?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 .h p M ? .h p M ?  years of potential life lost) ? ?μ μ? +?ey? μ§ H¥ M -D]B | ? ù? p M1?? ? 3i ?7 àμi M ?¥9?b ? l * μ | ? p ¥ ? >° 41Q? ? μ§ey2]¥?× ?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ??? p  M ??? p  M (disability-adjusted life years) ? ·V?h? μ§ ? ? >¥ ??r B p  M ?y* μ ?ᥠp  ? > M years of life lost?%h ? á ?? ¥r B p  ? > M  years of lived with disability ? ^%h μ§?%h ?7 ? >¥ r B p  M¥9?? b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 =a%hs?¥? T ? í ?%h?] | ?a?] HWa ?]1 u¥VC+? ?Ws ?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  B | ?s? ? ù?%h?] | ?F¥s? V úù | ì ??2B | ?? ìáh y íb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 1 M -s?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h M -s?Cμs¥? %h M -s?Cμs¥? 1ey ? ?f £ üμs ; ?hyy í¥ ]?? £ ü?] è?]¤? t]ín @¥T¨b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ù?%h M -s?¥ "¥ ù?%h M -s?¥ "¥ ?s%h M -s?μsμù?4 hyL ì)hyb ? V[úù4ú2 | ??×? 1 | ?b èμù?43 | ?1 ? ?f ??? p ??9? ?f??]¤? `b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h M -s?¥sZE ?? ?s (cross sectional analysis) ? 3 s (birth cohort analysis)b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 2?Y    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h¥?h q? μ§ qè? %h¥?h q? μ§ qè? Yμs¥?1ey  1 3 o ???]b  2 3 oˉ<+?/? tˉ<M 1?%h¥?h q μ§ qμsb  3 3 o 3Z Ta _za?1? μs/?%hs?¥?Yμsb  4 3 o¥3 éa 3 ?# =s ?} ??μsb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 3ˉ< ? ?%h¥? 3Dˉ<μ á M1 "b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 4?B / ?B ? ?]?B / ?B-W??L.y íaü6 £ üaó??a ?1 ?ìa[#? ì? 38?μ s P%h¥?h qiB?¥μ sb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 5?1    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  = HWs? ? ?" HW¥M?%hs?9? 3 "M?b??Q? áhy í¥? ?M?9Q?  | ?+?¥M ?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h¥ HWs?+? %h¥ HWs?+?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ùo?  ùo? ? B?1 uB?"8¥ | ?? ù = h¥h è ? üA9¥C` ?1 ùo? rapid fluctuationb ?. ?ha"8 Jt?yaìal% ê ??á  ??hl ?9?b ?  ùo?? ^??? | ù = ¤(]Báhy07? b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 1?? 1?? ? %hB?¥1? =??h q 6ú¥ C`?11?? (seasonality)9? 1??Ms seasonal variationb ? ? @??Y? 7áSZ 7a 8a9 ??1?hú?1?N - a? ? 37 2Z * ?1e yDY? 7hy ?o ? 8 =N 2+?#ò ? 3Hqμ1b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 1?? 1?? ? ?% )? ê%???. ?há Sò1? M ( V? 3?μ1?? 6úB?1 8j9zb ? ???x? ¥| 5e0? 3 =1-?b ? 7ó5i?? 3?a11b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? ù? ? %hG? p?¥ HWW?? 3 @ ??1? ù? periodicityb ??a @?? 7, Y aJ? @ ??? μb m 1-3  g M @?? 7, Y  ?h wL       M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M  M Mz ?h q     £    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h @??C? ù?¥ey ??h¥.l? ?^ LC ?ha V[¤? 1%¥ ?f ? è? 38?^? | g??9F? ? éhe8Msb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 é ùMs é ùMs ? B?M?é¥ HW = Yè1+ M+ E M%h¥?h qa μ§ qa? ? ??? ? 3A÷¥ t ]?M???C`?1é ù Ms secular changeé ù t ] (secular trend)b ? ?? F ) í¥ ˉ¨he8¥Msaa y? á ì?0¥ù? ??á%h¥?ü? ? mí|b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ?1 us? %h¥? 3aa s?]1 u¥1 ?ì a? ?Hq?YbyNù?%h¥1 us?è V%h¥hya @?y í?4 L ì[L?è]?|b 1%hSEWs? 2%hSE =s? 3%h¥ìTs? 4%h¥1Z?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h¥1Z? %h¥1Z? ? ??1 ?ìa? ?y í¥?Y7 PBt%hè B1 u?C?h q £ ü?úo?1 ui? ?C`?1%h¥1Z?  endemicb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 (1)%h1Z?¥? ? ? 11 ?f÷?  Bt%h¥he8?G L |7 L1 ??¥7 3?t ?üN2B ?Hq/. ?ó | ? ?  7??%h ?11 ?f÷?%hb ? 2d91Z? ?? 38a? 3H q7???y í?á%h 1 u?h £ ü?ú¥C`?1d91Z?b ??? ? 3Hq?μ t1 u ea ê%?%h è M?h £ ü?ú?t%ho ^d9 ü èú?  ?1ZD?11 ?Hqí1? 1d91Z?%hb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 (1)%h1Z?¥? ? ? 31 ?1Z? ?TBt%h  1 u?h £ ü?ú??1 u? 3D?1¥1 ?ìaμ15?  11 ?1Z??t%h?11 ? 1Z?%hb ? 1 ?1Z?. ?h ? 1Zh    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 1Zh endemic disease ? ?1 ?1 ?ìay í? ¥a μ ?ì1Z?¥%hb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  2 ?%h1Z?¥G 1?h?1 t¥ò | ???h q (úi ? M -9é7  6b 2  e1 u t¥M ?¥ | ?F?h¥?h q (? .à??hb 3? ?¥r B |?r?1B? HWa?h  ?h q??1  ?M ?b 4 %?1 u¥  ??h¥?h q/??? ?h ^?1? t_b 5?1?h^?¥?t V ?? 3 ? ?¥%hb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 { ??%h { ??%h ? 'S àμ7VS?. ?¥%hb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 { ??%h { ??%h ? ?B?SE = ?%h?B1 u. ? 6B àμ?hXh ? ? h¥1 ub    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %h¥ | ?a HWa1 u %h¥ | ?a HWa1 u s?¥8? í ? s?¥8? í ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 M ? @?hD migrant epidemiology ? YV43 ?%hM ? | ?aM ?S?1 | ?#e tS | ?¥% h?h q μ§ qμY V[ ì %h? 3DL.?ìa¥1"b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 M ? @?hDé?hy ì?1G  ? 1 ? h?h q μ§ q¥μY?1 ?ìay í/?5?hM ? | ??? h q μ§ qDe tS¥ | ??]7 ¤í?M S¥?h q μ§ qb ? 2 ??h¥?h q μ§ q?L.y í ?1T¨5M ?De tS | ?¥ ?h q μ§ qM]7?]?M Sb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?a%h @? < ? %h¥ @? < ^·%h 1  | ??B? H ù =?h ? ¥M ?# h èW ó"¥?bè¨ ? ?a @????V Ub    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?? sporadic ? h?h q? ? MB? £ üòh èWí üA¥Mo.l1"VC 1 ?? 3?"¥ @? <?1 ??b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %hs?C ??¥?1ey 1?hhy?1è M @?y?] ¤?¥2T P | ???B?¥ ?f £ üb ? ?? @?a^? | ?h  y¤? ??f ìa | ?? μB? ¥ ?f ??C ??b 2μt[??? ?1?¥%h V C ?? ?, Y?éb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 %hs?C ??¥?1ey 3μt.l?? ?^ LC¥. ? h9 VC ?? ?ê? eb 4 té .? ù. ?h9èC ? ? ? b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 @? epidemic ? @?· 1 u h?h qA÷?V ? M¥ ???h q £ üb ? ?%há ? ¢ü t 8?aS? Y??h q?V?1B? ? N Hq/¥ @? £ ü?? @? < ?1v @? (pandemic) ? @?? ? μa y¥ W?v @?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? outbreak ? ?·B? ?1 u"8?ê  HW =l ?? 3?M]¥h | ¥C`b ? ?¥h |v μ ]¥. ?÷ .lo? áh÷v ? h |èC?h¥Ké .? ù =b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? ?? ? ?? áS | ??1r B ù5    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Ba. ??%h    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  B??C¥. ?h  M[ ? ? o??C??1. ?h Mz %h Mz %h Mz %h 1975 5 | h p2` 1981 ?y?¨ X8?? 1989 | x ? f8 h 1976 $?l?2?  1982 ó?2? 1989 d?é 1977 ?p ?ó £ 1982 ? h 1990 ??é 1977 +vh 1982 T %a ó h 1992 -h 1977 /8??ó £ 1983 ·)h 1992 O 139  y 1977 b?? w )?  1983 h?? ?h 1993 q hyk8 ?? 1977 à?é 1986 ì?10 h 1995 ??é 1980 T %  %? ?aó h 1988 l?? o>? ? ?×1¥?? 3. ?hμ·)ha0  )  ó??a 0   ya +vha ? ha? dha Z @?a ?u ?ó £a? @?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  =C¥. ?h ? o×?C??1. ?h  y ?f ¨ê £ ?h a¤ @ 7 ? £h 2?h    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?S·)ha?h?h f ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  M Z g M Z g )*7? ??·)h | ? ? ??·)h | ?                                  )*7 )*7$6. )*7 )*7 $6.  M n èá Maá ?  6?9)*7? ? $ |  M Z g?h?h q                              M z ? h q £ 9?h q %h ?y  M??h ? M×?C Ma M?9 ]. ?h  M[ ? Z g )k2?á | ?D?9 | ?                Mz ??h ? ?   è t ]L á ? E? t ]  M?h1 ?SK?i? M/? ?à M =?h ??? ù  6 —?C. ?h2By í ?o 3t??M J ??? £?"?? óA#ó? ?¥he8ê ? F ) í? ê 4 ˉ¨ f ì 7??? p ? ??ᥠ¤?%h ? ?D ¤? h ¥ M1?ù ? @? 3 ?h0 ? éaó   a? £ é?? @?? ó £ / ? ? ? ° ? ê ?è ? ) ?′   | ?h ? hy  à′  éhy é′   ?ò?′?9hy?Dhya7 3 ?% )μ1 ? M?Z?SE£ a?rSE£ ′? D? ?μ1    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  ?èn?. ?h ? é ?  y ? ê% ? ? ??′? ? @? ? r%    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 =a ¤?d. ??%h    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Mortalities of leading causes in urban areas in China, 2000          Pshy. D Ment. D Uri. D Met. D Dig. D Injury Resp. D Card VD Cere VD Cancer Mortalites ( 1/100,000)    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ¤?h¥?]? e?  M ? s g -?ê?1%h μy?   0?? ?  7ó5h  ? "h  ?#h  ? ??y   ?  0?? ? 7ó5h ? "h ?#h ? ??y  ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03  M ?sE -?ê?1%h μy?   0?? ?  7ó5h  ? "h  ?#h  ? ??y   ?  0?? ? 7ó5h ? "h ?#h ? ??y  ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ú *? 3ù5 ^?×¥ ? 3ù5  ú ? ? o?μa | ?μ *üú *%h] ? o %hμ?¥b -ê/?? ?? ?¥%h ?μ? ??ú * p?báS " -μ×?ú * %h???£ |?μ? £?u? ?b *üú *%h]áS%h9μ?? ? nê ?b N? s f?p???1ù 5 ? ?¥  ?[/8`? ]  M? £ 1 oa o M | s ?8? | ?+μ¥ò ? ?1?ú *ù59? ?- jb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ú *? 3ù5 ^?×¥ ? 3ù5  ? ? ×?]í¥%h1ú *s ?a] ù ? D ?M f?p?a-:GZ ha? u a ú *?atìa?úG ?#0tG ??b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 “ ¤h ”?]# ?ü6?Z¥?Y null“ ¤h ”? ^ ?ü6?Z¥A ?át ^ü 6?? -a | ì ?C r? M? |?  3Z T¥0T ?Sao §a °'?S E M??? 7ó5hX? üA/? t ]b null?]? ?p > ?5|±÷}Nb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?a ] ? ?ì ] (injury) ^· “???a £ a? Daèb L¥ ? ?D8F?í E 0 s¥ £ ü 7/?¥F? ? ???? 7? ¥ ?[#?N? ¥? ? ? b ” ? WHOX|? ??%ha ¤?d. ??%ha ] 12] | ?r B¥ ?v%hμ?b 1995 M WHOá ? o ? M? ]/?¥ μ§ 1 510£?9? 2020 M|9F 65%r? 840£b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?a ] áS ] μ§ q1£ ? M?£ | μ ? ]b ?[1 ê μ§ qKú  £  W?òS- n ?S μ?1 ê | ? £ |[ b?Y ] μ§ qg  ? o n ê £ ? Mμ£ | μ?ú b ? μ ^áS ]á μ¥? ?ey  £ ^ — ? M - ¥?Bê μyb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?a ] ? ]¥? 3 q?  6 ]/?v ¥¥ò??%?* μah{ v¥D n¨?'÷yN ]?]? e?X ?1D ? 3yT¥×?-Bb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 × j ]¥?] null ? W? ? Mμ£ | μ? ]? ?à μa |? 3BQ[ ¥ ] ? £ |L =/?]?? ? ?]£ |? 3?%b ] ^ ? o -ê¥ μy ^ — ? | ?¥?Bê μyb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 1aˉ<?2] ? 2002 M ?S áò ?ˉ<h | 14821 è? 2001 M9F  12.1%b ? 9h è ???kh] 82.6% ¤ ??y] 8.8%$??y] 4.0%b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?S¥ ? 4 ^ ?S¥ 160?¥ 10     ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? u¥L± ò ì? ^ 30 ? ? P· > ? j?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 m 1  M ?Sò ? Y# μ§ | ?                            μ§ | ? |  Md9 ? A U W? ? ^?Y Y# μ§ | ? ?V |¥μ ?SE?S  W??Bê μ§ | ? |°¤ü6 ? >raíb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ˉ<2] ° t?× ú null? 3?? 8 g?E uT? <?° i?]?ˉ<2]b ?¥ < àμ ¥ ! ??]1 ! @[ ¥x?T<? ?? S+??1ˉ<h?P ?ˉ<h |_ qúr b null??ò??? a?y\?é? P¨C B tV ??;nV? ? 3¥?×ˉ<?yb$ ??yá μaáóAh¥ Yq qμ? 3b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ˉ<2] ° t?× ? null 6??Q L]ê í 3áa {a P¨ #?i???/?b ÷é >aê ?ì aaá | ]¥ Yq9 Hμ? 3b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ×vyyy??¥? 3ù5 ×vy?¥ @y?]??Y ? ê  ?ìa?? B" ^n?^ n¥? 3ù5b ?? a?ù?×? ?| V ?/??×ù5b ?,y?y !av? £ o?ya ]?M ^?y?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?a J÷?r Bù5 ? J ?? ?Xü  ?áS ? 3 ? j<¥×1yT = ?-Bb t ? ú YqaL? Yqa J ??? ? y<t  Yq? lμ? 3/?  Jt?y¥? | ?¥r Ba 3 #?á/?  v ? >b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 J ?? ??? ú× j nulláSi¥ù59? b± 3tê ? ? ga j0a u0a 3é??4?S ~? μ{aíZ? £÷ê ? ? ?dE@F  í? 3é\é4# F± 3t?4? ¥ % ) 00?b null“? ¥0 ”¥?D? ??0taìaê ? ta t ?ú?b null?/ ??¨ ?? ¥1?y J ?    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Ba o Mr Bù5    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?S | gá3 ó¥M? Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, 2000 Rev. 2000 2025 2050 1970 Male Female    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 | gá ? o -? ? T1 | gd9D¥M¥Q?V @? hDZ ? ? a ¤?h¥?h q?9ú t ] ? ü6a ?'÷¥ ?C31r q?rT ¥??é ? ?M? ?".d ?2¥?vh \ ?¥ o M |31??¥? b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 taD÷?%h    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Dy? ? ? d9áSDy? ?¥? 3 q 10%P·Dy¥ μ§h |? °¤W¤ y?Dy? ?¥r 30%~40% 9áS ü ( ? M yDy? ?9Ftyn?1 54.3a íbáS? 3¥Dy? ??í EE ?¥ =÷?? ??] 30% V [E ?¥?÷?? ??] 70%b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 0t ˉ¨¥?×? null?? 2001 MáS¨:¥ y | ? 90 .1 £o# ?S ?μ 8a1í ua°* g¥ 2051?E gb null2001 M0t ˉ¨¥_?á    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 2001 M0t ˉ¨¥_?á  0t ˉ¨ ?8¥"?  ? ?Ba? 30ta? w?y4#d'1?!?0t ˉ¨?ù5lb  &d? ??y4 @? ˉ¨ t ]F× 1 uR# 25 8 g ??"(h?aby?μ o? [av ?a V 5y#o? ? ü ?? ya2]v | g D+? o?1 è êúó??úb  0t ˉ¨?F× ? Z T | ?9 ? 30t ˉ¨?9F ?i ˉ¨0 t i?%h? ?F× ?y# μ§9  ?E V?Yvb  - ? ?0tˉ | ? ú?/    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Dy? ? ——B? ? o1?¥ù5 Dy? ? nosocomial infection ^ tyh |?DyˉyDy ú s?? ?i C??bs1 ?v ??-? ? '?÷ ?? ?a1 &? ? ' =÷?? ?a  ?? ?bey o M | ?# ¤?h |9F ? ab a ía =?ao ??í a ˉ¨ F 3 ía± 3tMs# 00 )é9 ?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?a 3t c???D c? P¨áh?± 3ty í?T1ó  YVB?¥o? ?láh?% )ahy/? ?. ?h¥? @?á | ? > ?? μ§ ?  ???b nullZ T ??% )  `?aê ? £÷? J ?a ??{ ) ? ?b null+?/N? ÷/ ? 4?vù?? 7? < 3á?K1Z cE?byN 9$?1 “ k |¥e0? ”b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 3t c?è P¨¥ 3t4 3t c?è P¨¥ 3t4 null??  áS= E ?[/ | ?í ?f ?. ?? < h μ qú rb null ?f  .l μ ò ?a??h μ qúb null  ?ìa[è1? T· F ? < Vü?  ah??# ??* .l[k K¢Bb null Z @?  ?J? @?hy^Ms 3i ? < ?ü ?D | @?hyé?y× ¥|/? W??v @?b ??1μ)a)a)e?yé  M P?1) /h μ qúr b null ?y? )#y í?y  1  )á 3 <  * üy í ×? h | h μ qú rb    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?D c?è¨ c?yt null ? H!?¥yt null F ?? ?úya yμ j0# ì a ó) ?^?y4b null쨥 ? ?4y ? <a oY????Y ? )b null _?t _? )a _?K? null "?t null  ?9??¥yt  ??S  ?¥c ?a Hb null  e n¥yt ?y í ?a ?$ o )?y ía6 ?y ía??y ía F\íy í?b    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ? 1? ? 1? ? o%hμ?#2 ? o%hμ?#2 By í    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 DEATH, BY BROAD ACUSE GROUP, 2000 Communicable diseases, maternal and prenatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies (31.9%) Injuries (9.1%) Noncommunicable conditions (59.0%) Total deaths: 55,694,000    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria - Basic facts, 2000 Disease Deaths per year New cases per year % in developing countries HIV/AIDS 3 mills 5.3 mills 92 TB 1.9 mills 8.8 mills 84 Malaria >1 mills 300 mills 100    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 Double Burden    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 á ì)?M?2B¥Z-? ?á?1%hμ?ey¥v2By í W?? 3á = ?1 ¤?h¥2By í ?Z?SE ?rSE ú μ§ q ? μ§ q 1 ? 38× ??  ? 2 ?? ???1 ? 38× úóa 3 ?? ??¨ £ úóa ?? 4 i = b ê ?  ? úó?%? 5 ? ?C g ? g ? 6 M ?C úó?%? £T v?  ??@ 7 ? 3 í A ?C M ?C 8 ???@ 8 úóa £T v?  ??@ ˉ¨y ? 9  ? %8 ? ¥ i = b ê ? ? 38× 10 úó?%? ?? ??¨ £ M ?C Source: World Health Report 2002    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03 ?)?]n @ r B .% h ?h    ? 3 3 D y    ? 3 3 D y2004-06-03