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part I
Introduction
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1-1 What Macroeconomists Study
Why have some countries experienced rapid growth in incomes over the past
century while others stay mired in poverty? Why do some countries have high
rates of inflation while others maintain stable prices? Why do all countries expe-
rience recessions and depressions—recurrent periods of falling incomes and ris-
ing unemployment—and how can government policy reduce the frequency and
severity of these episodes? Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a
whole, attempts to answer these and many related questions.
To appreciate the importance of macroeconomics, you need only read the
newspaper or listen to the news. Every day you can see headlines such as IN-
COME GROWTH SLOWS, FED MOVES TO COMBAT INFLATION, or
STOCKS FALL AMID RECESSION FEARS.Although these macroeconomic
events may seem abstract, they touch all of our lives. Business executives forecast-
ing the demand for their products must guess how fast consumers’ incomes will
grow. Senior citizens living on fixed incomes wonder how fast prices will rise.
Recent college graduates looking for jobs hope that the economy will boom and
that firms will be hiring.
Because the state of the economy affects everyone, macroeconomic issues play
a central role in political debate.Voters are aware of how the economy is doing,
and they know that government policy can affect the economy in powerful
ways.As a result, the popularity of the incumbent president rises when the econ-
omy is doing well and falls when it is doing poorly.
Macroeconomic issues are also at the center of world politics. In recent years,
Europe has moved toward a common currency, many Asian countries have expe-
rienced financial turmoil and capital flight, and the United States has financed
large trade deficits by borrowing from abroad.When world leaders meet, these
topics are often high on their agendas.
1
The Science of Macroeconomics
CHAPTER
The whole of science is nothing more than the refinement of everyday
thinking.
— Albert Einstein
ONE
2 |
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Although the job of making economic policy falls to world leaders, the job of
explaining how the economy as a whole works falls to macroeconomists.Toward
this end, macroeconomists collect data on incomes, prices, unemployment, and
many other variables from different time periods and different countries. They
then attempt to formulate general theories that help to explain these data. Like
astronomers studying the evolution of stars or biologists studying the evolution
of species, macroeconomists cannot conduct controlled experiments. Instead,
they must make use of the data that history gives them. Macroeconomists ob-
serve that economies differ from one another and that they change over time.
These observations provide both the motivation for developing macroeconomic
theories and the data for testing them.
To be sure, macroeconomics is a young and imperfect science. The macro-
economist’s ability to predict the future course of economic events is no better
than the meteorologist’s ability to predict next month’s weather. But, as you will
see, macroeconomists do know quite a lot about how the economy works.This
knowledge is useful both for explaining economic events and for formulating
economic policy.
Every era has its own economic problems. In the 1970s, Presidents Richard
Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter all wrestled in vain with a rising rate of
inflation. In the 1980s, inflation subsided, but Presidents Ronald Reagan and
George Bush presided over large federal budget deficits. In the 1990s, with Pres-
ident Bill Clinton in the Oval Office, the budget deficit shrank and even turned
into a budget surplus, but federal taxes as a share of national income reached a
historic high. So it was no surprise that when President George W. Bush moved
into the White House in 2001, he put a tax cut high on his agenda.The basic
principles of macroeconomics do not change from decade to decade, but the
macroeconomist must apply these principles with flexibility and creativity to
meet changing circumstances.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics | 3
CASE STUDY
The Historical Performance of the U.S. Economy
Economists use many types of data to measure the performance of an economy.
Three macroeconomic variables are especially important: real gross domestic
product (GDP), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate. Real GDP mea-
sures the total income of everyone in the economy (adjusted for the level of
prices).The inflation rate measures how fast prices are rising.The unemploy-
ment rate measures the fraction of the labor force that is out of work. Macro-
economists study how these variables are determined, why they change over
time, and how they interact with one another.
Figure 1-1 shows real GDP per person in the United States.Two aspects
of this figure are noteworthy. First, real GDP grows over time. Real GDP
per person is today about five times its level in 1900.This growth in average
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income allows us to enjoy a higher standard of living than our great-grand-
parents did. Second, although real GDP rises in most years, this growth is
not steady. There are repeated periods during which real GDP falls, the
most dramatic instance being the early 1930s. Such periods are called reces-
sions if they are mild and depressions if they are more severe. Not surpris-
ingly, periods of declining income are associated with substantial economic
hardship.
Figure 1-2 shows the U.S. inflation rate. You can see that inflation varies
substantially. In the first half of the twentieth century, the inflation rate aver-
aged only slightly above zero. Periods of falling prices, called deflation,were
almost as common as periods of rising prices. In the past half century, inflation
has been the norm.The inflation problem became most severe during the late
1970s, when prices rose at a rate of almost 10 percent per year. In recent years,
4 | PART I Introduction
figure 1-1
World
War I
Great
Depression
World
War II
Korean
War
Vietnam
War
First oil price shock
Second oil price shock
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
30,000
35,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
3,000
Year
2000
Real GDP per person
(1996 dollars)
Real GDP per Person in the U.S. Economy
Real GDP measures the total income of everyone in the economy, and real GDP per
person measures the income of the average person in the economy. This figure shows
that real GDP per person tends to grow over time and that this normal growth is
sometimes interrupted by periods of declining income, called recessions or
depressions.
Note: Real GDP is plotted here on a logarithmic scale. On such a scale, equal distances on the vertical
axis represent equal percentage changes. Thus, the distance between $5,000 and $10,000 (a 100
percent change) is the same as the distance between $10,000 and $20,000 (a 100 percent change).
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970) and U.S.
Department of Commerce.
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the inflation rate has been about 2 or 3 percent per year, indicating that prices
have been fairly stable.
Figure 1-3 shows the U.S. unemployment rate. Notice that there is always
some unemployment in our economy. In addition, although there is no long-
term trend, the amount of unemployment varies from year to year. Reces-
sions and depressions are associated with unusually high unemployment.The
highest rates of unemployment were reached during the Great Depression of
the 1930s.
These three figures offer a glimpse at the history of the U.S. economy. In the
chapters that follow, we first discuss how these variables are measured and then
develop theories to explain how they behave.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics | 5
figure 1-2
1900
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
?5
?10
?15
?20
Percent
Inflation
Deflation
1910
World
War I
Great
Depression
World
War II
Korean
War
Vietnam
War
First oil price shock
Second oil price shock
1920 1930 1940
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
The Inflation Rate in the U.S. Economy
The inflation rate measures the percentage change in the average level of prices from
the year before. When the inflation rate is above zero, prices are rising. When it is
below zero, prices are falling. If the inflation rate declines but remains positive, prices
are rising but at a slower rate.
Note: The inflation rate is measured here using the GDP deflator.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970) and U.S.
Department of Commerce.
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1-2 How Economists Think
Although economists often study politically charged issues, they try to address
these issues with a scientist’s objectivity. Like any science, economics has its own
set of tools—terminology, data, and a way of thinking—that can seem foreign
and arcane to the layman.The best way to become familiar with these tools is to
practice using them, and this book will afford you ample opportunity to do so.To
make these tools less forbidding, however, let’s discuss a few of them here.
Theory as Model Building
Young children learn much about the world around them by playing with toy
versions of real objects. For instance, they often put together models of cars,
trains, or planes.These models are far from realistic, but the model-builder learns
6 | PART I Introduction
figure 1-3
1900
25
20
15
10
5
0
Percent
unemployed
1910
World
War I
Great
Depression
World
War II
Korean
War
Vietnam
War
First oil price shock
Second oil price shock
1920 1930 1940
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
The Unemployment Rate in the U.S. Economy
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of people in the labor force who do
not have jobs. This figure shows that the economy always has some unemployment
and that the amount fluctuates from year to year.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970) and U.S.
Department of Commerce.
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a lot from them nonetheless.The model illustrates the essence of the real object it
is designed to resemble.
Economists also use models to understand the world, but an economist’s
model is more likely to be made of symbols and equations than plastic and glue.
Economists build their “toy economies” to help explain economic variables, such
as GDP, inflation, and unemployment. Economic models illustrate, often in
mathematical terms, the relationships among the variables. They are useful be-
cause they help us to dispense with irrelevant details and to focus on important
connections.
Models have two kinds of variables: endogenous variables and exogenous
variables. Endogenous variables are those variables that a model tries to ex-
plain. Exogenous variables are those variables that a model takes as given.The
purpose of a model is to show how the exogenous variables affect the endoge-
nous variables. In other words, as Figure 1-4 illustrates, exogenous variables come
from outside the model and serve as the model’s input, whereas endogenous
variables are determined inside the model and are the model’s output.
To make these ideas more concrete, let’s review the most celebrated of all eco-
nomic models—the model of supply and demand. Imagine that an economist
were interested in figuring out what factors influence the price of pizza and the
quantity of pizza sold. He or she would develop a model that described the be-
havior of pizza buyers, the behavior of pizza sellers, and their interaction in the
market for pizza. For example, the economist supposes that the quantity of pizza
demanded by consumers Q
d
depends on the price of pizza P and on aggregate
income Y.This relationship is expressed in the equation
Q
d
= D(P, Y),
where D( ) represents the demand function. Similarly, the economist supposes
that the quantity of pizza supplied by pizzerias Q
s
depends on the price of pizza
P and on the price of materials P
m
, such as cheese, tomatoes, flour, and anchovies.
This relationship is expressed as
Q
s
= S(P, P
m
),
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics | 7
figure 1-4
Endogenous VariablesModelExogenous Variables
How Models Work
Models are simplified theories that show the key relationships
among economic variables. The exogenous variables are those that
come from outside the model. The endogenous variables are those
that the model explains. The model shows how changes in the
exogenous variables affect the endogenous variables.
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where S( ) represents the supply function. Finally, the economist assumes that the
price of pizza adjusts to bring the quantity supplied and quantity demanded into
balance:
Q
s
= Q
d
.
These three equations compose a model of the market for pizza.
The economist illustrates the model with a supply-and-demand diagram, as in
Figure 1-5.The demand curve shows the relationship between the quantity of
pizza demanded and the price of pizza, while holding aggregate income con-
stant.The demand curve slopes downward because a higher price of pizza en-
courages consumers to switch to other foods and buy less pizza.The supply curve
shows the relationship between the quantity of pizza supplied and the price of
pizza, while holding the price of materials constant.The supply curve slopes up-
ward because a higher price of pizza makes selling pizza more profitable, which
encourages pizzerias to produce more of it.The equilibrium for the market is the
price and quantity at which the supply and demand curves intersect.At the equi-
librium price, consumers choose to buy the amount of pizza that pizzerias
choose to produce.
This model of the pizza market has two exogenous variables and two endoge-
nous variables.The exogenous variables are aggregate income and the price of
materials.The model does not attempt to explain them but takes them as given
(perhaps to be explained by another model).The endogenous variables are the
8 | PART I Introduction
figure 1-5
Supply
Demand
Price of pizza, P
Quantity of pizza, Q
Equilibrium
price
Equilibrium
quantity
Market
equilibrium
The Model of Supply and
Demand
The most famous economic
model is that of supply and
demand for a good or
service—in this case, pizza.
The demand curve is a
downward-sloping curve
relating the price of pizza to
the quantity of pizza that
consumers demand. The
supply curve is an upward-
sloping curve relating the
price of pizza to the quantity
of pizza that pizzerias
supply. The price of pizza
adjusts until the quantity
supplied equals the quantity
demanded. The point where
the two curves cross is the
market equilibrium, which
shows the equilibrium price
of pizza and the equilibrium
quantity of pizza.
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price of pizza and the quantity of pizza exchanged.These are the variables that
the model attempts to explain.
The model can be used to show how a change in one of the exogenous vari-
ables affects both endogenous variables. For example, if aggregate income in-
creases, then the demand for pizza increases, as in panel (a) of Figure 1-6. The
model shows that both the equilibrium price and the equilibrium quantity of
pizza rise. Similarly, if the price of materials increases, then the supply of pizza
decreases, as in panel (b) of Figure 1-6. The model shows that in this case the
equilibrium price of pizza rises and the equilibrium quantity of pizza falls.Thus,
the model shows how changes in aggregate income or in the price of materials
affect price and quantity in the market for pizza.
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics | 9
figure 1-6
Price of pizza, P
D
2
D
1
Q
1
Q
2
P
1
P
2
S
Quantity of pizza, Q
S
2
S
1
Q
1
Q
2
P
2
P
1
D
Price of pizza, P
Quantity of pizza, Q
()
(b) A Shift in Supply
Changes in Equilibrium
In panel (a), a rise in
aggregate income causes
the demand for pizza to
increase: at any given price,
consumers now want to buy
more pizza. This is
represented by a rightward
shift in the demand curve
from D
1
to D
2
. The market
moves to the new
intersection of supply and
demand. The equilibrium
price rises from P
1
to P
2
,
and the equilibrium
quantity of pizza rises from
Q
1
to Q
2
. In panel (b), a
rise in the price of materials
decreases the supply of
pizza: at any given price,
pizzerias find that the sale of
pizza is less profitable and
therefore choose to produce
less pizza. This is
represented by a leftward
shift in the supply curve
from S
1
to S
2
. The market
moves to the new
intersection of supply and
demand. The equilibrium
price rises from P
1
to P
2
,
and the equilibrium
quantity falls from Q
1
to
Q
2
.
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Like all models, this model of the pizza market makes simplifying assumptions.
The model does not take into account, for example, that every pizzeria is in a
different location. For each customer, one pizzeria is more convenient than the
others, and thus pizzerias have some ability to set their own prices.Although the
model assumes that there is a single price for pizza, in fact there could be a dif-
ferent price at every pizzeria.
How should we react to the model’s lack of realism? Should we discard the
simple model of pizza supply and pizza demand? Should we attempt to build a
more complex model that allows for diverse pizza prices? The answers to these
questions depend on our purpose. If our goal is to explain how the price of
cheese affects the average price of pizza and the amount of pizza sold, then the
diversity of pizza prices is probably not important.The simple model of the pizza
market does a good job of addressing that issue.Yet if our goal is to explain why
towns with three pizzerias have lower pizza prices than towns with one pizzeria,
the simple model is less useful.
10 | PART I Introduction
FYI
All economic models express relationships
among economic variables. Often, these relation-
ships are expressed as functions. A function is a
mathematical concept that shows how one vari-
able depends on a set of other variables. For ex-
ample, in the model of the pizza market, we said
that the quantity of pizza demanded depends on
the price of pizza and on aggregate income. To
express this, we use functional notation to write
Q
d
= D(P, Y).
This equation says that the quantity of pizza de-
manded Q
d
is a function of the price of pizza P
and aggregate income Y. In functional notation,
the variable preceding the parentheses denotes
the function. In this case, D( ) is the function ex-
pressing how the variables in parentheses deter-
mine the quantity of pizza demanded.
If we knew more about the pizza market, we
could give a numerical formula for the quantity
of pizza demanded. We might be able to write
Q
d
= 60 ? 10P + 2Y.
Using Functions to Express Relationships
Among Variables
In this case, the demand function is
D(P, Y) = 60 ? 10P + 2Y.
For any price of pizza and aggregate income, this
function gives the corresponding quantity of
pizza demanded. For example, if aggregate in-
come is $10 and the price of pizza is $2, then the
quantity of pizza demanded is 60 pies; if the
price of pizza rises to $3, the quantity of pizza de-
manded falls to 50 pies.
Functional notation allows us to express a
relationship among variables even when the
precise numerical relationship is unknown. For
example, we might know that the quantity of
pizza demanded falls when the price rises from
$2 to $3, but we might not know by how much
it falls. In this case, functional notation is use-
ful: as long as we know that a relationship
among the variables exists, we can remind our-
selves of that relationship using functional
notation.
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The art in economics is in judging when an assumption is clarifying and
when it is misleading. Any model constructed to be completely realistic would
be too complicated for anyone to understand. Simplification is a necessary part
of building a useful model.Yet models lead to incorrect conclusions if they as-
sume away features of the economy that are crucial to the issue at hand. Eco-
nomic modeling therefore requires care and common sense.
A Multitude of Models
Macroeconomists study many facets of the economy. For example, they exam-
ine the role of saving in economic growth, the impact of labor unions on un-
employment, the effect of inflation on interest rates, and the influence of trade
policy on the trade balance and exchange rates. Macroeconomics is as diverse as
the economy.
Although economists use models to address all these issues, no single model
can answer all questions. Just as carpenters use different tools for different tasks,
economists uses different models to explain different economic phenomena. Stu-
dents of macroeconomics, therefore, must keep in mind that there is no single
“correct’’ model useful for all purposes. Instead, there are many models, each of
which is useful for shedding light on a different facet of the economy.The field
of macroeconomics is like a Swiss army knife—a set of complementary but dis-
tinct tools that can be applied in different ways in different circumstances.
This book therefore presents many different models that address different
questions and that make different assumptions. Remember that a model is only
as good as its assumptions and that an assumption that is useful for some purposes
may be misleading for others. When using a model to address a question, the
economist must keep in mind the underlying assumptions and judge whether
these are reasonable for the matter at hand.
Prices: Flexible Versus Sticky
Throughout this book, one group of assumptions will prove especially impor-
tant—those concerning the speed with which wages and prices adjust. Econo-
mists normally presume that the price of a good or a service moves quickly to
bring quantity supplied and quantity demanded into balance. In other words,
they assume that a market goes to the equilibrium of supply and demand.This
assumption is called market clearing and is central to the model of the pizza
market discussed earlier. For answering most questions, economists use market-
clearing models.
Yet the assumption of continuous market clearing is not entirely realistic. For
markets to clear continuously, prices must adjust instantly to changes in supply
and demand. In fact, however, many wages and prices adjust slowly. Labor con-
tracts often set wages for up to three years. Many firms leave their product prices
the same for long periods of time—for example, magazine publishers typically
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics | 11
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change their newsstand prices only every three or four years.Although market-
clearing models assume that all wages and prices are flexible, in the real world
some wages and prices are sticky.
The apparent stickiness of prices does not make market-clearing models use-
less.After all, prices are not stuck forever; eventually, they do adjust to changes in
supply and demand. Market-clearing models might not describe the economy at
every instant, but they do describe the equilibrium toward which the economy
gravitates. Therefore, most macroeconomists believe that price flexibility is a
good assumption for studying long-run issues, such as the growth in real GDP
that we observe from decade to decade.
For studying short-run issues, such as year-to-year fluctuations in real GDP
and unemployment, the assumption of price flexibility is less plausible. Over
short periods, many prices are fixed at predetermined levels. Therefore, most
macroeconomists believe that price stickiness is a better assumption for studying
the behavior of the economy in the short run.
Microeconomic Thinking and
Macroeconomic Models
Microeconomics is the study of how households and firms make decisions and
how these decisionmakers interact in the marketplace.A central principle of mi-
croeconomics is that households and firms optimize—they do the best they can
for themselves given their objectives and the constraints they face. In microeco-
nomic models, households choose their purchases to maximize their level of sat-
isfaction, which economists call utility, and firms make production decisions to
maximize their profits.
Because economy-wide events arise from the interaction of many households
and many firms, macroeconomics and microeconomics are inextricably linked.
When we study the economy as a whole, we must consider the decisions of indi-
vidual economic actors. For example, to understand what determines total con-
sumer spending, we must think about a family deciding how much to spend
today and how much to save for the future.To understand what determines total
investment spending, we must think about a firm deciding whether to build a
new factory. Because aggregate variables are the sum of the variables describing
many individual decisions, macroeconomic theory rests on a microeconomic
foundation.
Although microeconomic decisions always underlie economic models, in
many models the optimizing behavior of households and firms is implicit rather
than explicit.The model of the pizza market we discussed earlier is an example.
Households’ decisions about how much pizza to buy underlie the demand for
pizza, and pizzerias’ decisions about how much pizza to produce underlie the
supply of pizza. Presumably, households make their decisions to maximize utility,
and pizzerias make their decisions to maximize profit. Yet the model did not
focus on these microeconomic decisions; it left them in the background. Simi-
larly, in much of macroeconomics, the optimizing behavior of households and
firms is left implicit.
12 | PART I Introduction
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1-3 How This Book Proceeds
This book has six parts.This chapter and the next make up Part One, the Intro-
duction. Chapter 2 discusses how economists measure economic variables, such
as aggregate income, the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.
Part Two, “Classical Theory: The Economy in the Long Run,” presents the
classical model of how the economy works.The key assumption of the classical
model is that prices are flexible.That is, with rare exceptions, the classical model
assumes market clearing. Because the assumption of price flexibility describes the
economy only in the long run, classical theory is best suited for analyzing a time
horizon of at least several years.
Part Three,“Growth Theory:The Economy in the Very Long Run,” builds on
the classical model. It maintains the assumption of market clearing but adds a
new emphasis on growth in the capital stock, the labor force, and technological
knowledge. Growth theory is designed to explain how the economy evolves over
a period of several decades.
Part Four,“Business Cycle Theory:The Economy in the Short Run,” exam-
ines the behavior of the economy when prices are sticky.The non-market-clear-
ing model developed here is designed to analyze short-run issues, such as the
reasons for economic fluctuations and the influence of government policy on
those fluctuations. It is best suited to analyzing the changes in the economy we
observe from month to month or from year to year.
Part Five, “Macroeconomic Policy Debates,” builds on the previous analysis to
consider what role the government should take in the economy. It considers how, if
at all,the government should respond to short-run fluctuations in real GDP and un-
employment. It also examines the various views on the effects of government debt.
Part Six, “More on the Microeconomics Behind Macroeconomics,” presents
some of the microeconomic models that are useful for analyzing macroeconomic
issues. For example, it examines the household’s decisions regarding how much
to consume and how much money to hold and the firm’s decision regarding
how much to invest.These individual decisions together form the larger macro-
economic picture.The goal of studying these microeconomic decisions in detail
is to refine our understanding of the aggregate economy.
Summary
1. Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole—including growth
in incomes, changes in prices, and the rate of unemployment. Macroecono-
mists attempt both to explain economic events and to devise policies to im-
prove economic performance.
2. To understand the economy, economists use models—theories that simplify
reality in order to reveal how exogenous variables influence endogenous
variables.The art in the science of economics is in judging whether a model
CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics | 13
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captures the important economic relationships for the matter at hand. Be-
cause no single model can answer all questions, macroeconomists use differ-
ent models to look at different issues.
3. A key feature of a macroeconomic model is whether it assumes that prices are
flexible or sticky. According to most macroeconomists, models with flexible
prices describe the economy in the long run, whereas models with sticky
prices offer a better description of the economy in the short run.
4. Microeconomics is the study of how firms and individuals make decisions
and how these decisionmakers interact. Because macroeconomic events arise
from many microeconomic interactions, macroeconomists use many of the
tools of microeconomics.
14 | PART I Introduction
KEY CONCEPTS
Macroeconomics
Real GDP
Inflation rate
Unemployment rate
Recession
Depression
Deflation
Models
Endogenous variables
Exogenous variables
Market clearing
Flexible and sticky prices
Microeconomics
1. Explain the difference between macroeconomics
and microeconomics. How are these two fields
related?
QUESTIONS FOR REVIEW
2. Why do economists build models?
3. What is a market-clearing model? When is the as-
sumption of market clearing appropriate?
PROBLEMS AND APPLICATIONS
1. What macroeconomic issues have been in the
news lately?
2. What do you think are the defining characteris-
tics of a science? Does the study of the economy
have these characteristics? Do you think macro-
economics should be called a science? Why or
why not?
3. Use the model of supply and demand to explain
how a fall in the price of frozen yogurt would af-
fect the price of ice cream and the quantity of ice
cream sold. In your explanation, identify the ex-
ogenous and endogenous variables.
4. How often does the price you pay for a haircut
change? What does your answer imply about the
usefulness of market-clearing models for analyz-
ing the market for haircuts?